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Server Time: 12/1/2008 11:38:07 AM PACIFIC |
 Stupid odds question, WilliamS, 11. Oct 2003 06:50 | ||
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| If I am 4 to a flush there are 9 possible cards which complete my flush. If I hold an open ended straight draw there are 8 cards which complete my straight. Yet a flush obviously beats a straight; why is it seemingly easier to make a more powerful hand? I know this is an off the wall question, but is one I have pondered for a while and I am confident you guys can give me an answer. Will | ||
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| Re: Stupid odds question, TrippH, 11. Oct 2003 09:24 | ||
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| Well, one mistake is that you seem to be assuming it's just as likely to have 4 to the flush after the flop as it is to have an open-ended straight draw. Another is that those are the only possibilities you consider as ways to end up with either a flush or a straight (leaving out 3 to the flush after the flop, then runner-runner flush cards, and all varieties of inside straight draws and runner-runners for straights). Granted, the hand rankings are based on their probabilities of being dealt in 5 cards only (like 5-card stud), and not in 7 as hold 'em is played, but in 5 cards, you are twice as likely to have a made straight as you are a made flush, and I haven't done any of the math to be sure, but it would seem unlikely that two extra cards could swing the probability of a flush higher than that of a straight when it starts out that much lower after 5. There's probably an odds table around somewhere though that would have the probability of ending up with particular hands after 7 cards. That being said, it's possible that you see more flushes than straights in over-the-table play for the reason that players are more likely to draw to flushes because it's a better hand and more likely to win, that players are likely to give up their straight draws as soon as 3 flush cards come on the board because they feel they're beat even if they make their hand, and also there are probably some straights that end up in the muck and are never seen after someone has already shown a flush. | ||
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