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Server Time: 3/12/2010 8:25:11 AM PACIFIC |
 PP against a flopped underpair?, magnus, 10. Oct 2003 11:28 | ||
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| Due to a untimely exit from a tournament last night I started thinking about how much of a underdog you are when you have a flopped pair against a pocket overpair? Lets take this senario: You are holding AA in the pocket, your opponent has KQ and you are both all-in. K comes on the flop. What percentage of a favorite are you? (lets say no flush or strait draws are available) The more I think about it, the less of a favorite I think I was (I was holding the AA).... He has 5 cards to improve with, I have only 2 (but I don't need to approve if he doesn't.....) so I guess I'm still a good favorite, just not as clear cut as I though. (He got a K on the river to kick me out of the tournament 13 places from the money. This was the first time I have steamed a bit, until I started thinking about the possible improvements he had...) -Magnus | ||
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| Re: PP against a flopped underpair?, Schuster, 10. Oct 2003 12:48 | ||
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| A good rule of thumb that I saw in an article by Jan Fisher is: If you have one street to catch one of your outs, multiply the number of outs by 2 and that is the percentage chance of catching. If you have two streets to catch one of your outs, multiply the number of outs by 4. It's accurate to within 2% up to 11 outs, and 11 outs is only off by 2.279%. In your example, he had 5 outs with 2 cards, so 5 * 4 = 20%, or about 4 to 1. The actual chance of hitting 5 outs on either the turn or the river is 20.352%, so it's pretty close. Obviously, there is an upper boundary to where this quick fix isn't accurate for 2 cards to come. I mean, if you have 25 outs, you aren't going to hit 100% of the time, but it is pretty good for lower number of outs. It starts to break down around the 13 out point, 13 outs being 48.104% to hit, but 52% according to our quick estimate, a full "out" off by our estimate. If you remember that 13, 14, and 15 outs are about even money by the river and use this for lower, you should do fine. Good luck magnus. Lee | ||
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| Re: PP against a flopped underpair?, shorn, 10. Oct 2003 12:50 | ||
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| Great post Lee. Easy to understand. | ||
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| Re: PP against a flopped underpair?, magnus, 10. Oct 2003 14:03 | ||
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| That is a great rule! Thanks Lee. I have just gone from "It's a big pot, I can call with my inside str8" to "There is 15 bets in the pot, my 4 outs is enough to call" so having a rule like this to help you with the decision will be very good. Specially online, where you only have about 20 sec. to decide. Thanks again, -Magnus | ||
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| Re: PP against a flopped underpair?, TrippH, 10. Oct 2003 13:07 | ||
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| assuming no flushes or straights, the AA's are a 79.8% favorite | ||
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| Re: PP against a flopped underpair?, magnus, 10. Oct 2003 14:18 | ||
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| Thanks, I knew I was doing the right thing, but he still had about 20% chance of outdrawing me, so I guess it was just poker. I was doing pretty well (above average stack) but I figured that aiming to get into the (low) money wasn't enough (I could have folded the rest of the way to do that), I wanted to get a chance to fight for the real money. Winning that hand would have put me into the top 20 and have a real shot on a payout. -Magnus | ||
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