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Server Time: 12/1/2008 2:52:45 PM PACIFIC |
 An in depth read....opportunity missed, grant pittman, 8. Oct 2003 11:57 | ||
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| I traveled to Brantford, a small town in Ontario, Canada to play poker at the charity casino in town. The game was $50-$100 holdem. Most of the players had lots of experience are were relatively aggressive but very loose. Marty, a friend of mine, was one off the button and limped in the pot after 3 players limped ahead of him. The button player also limped and after the blinds limped 7 players took the flop of 5-8-9 with two hearts. Everyone checked the flop. The turn card was an offsuit 8 and all players checked to Marty who bet. The button folded as did the small blind and the big blind raised. The field folded to Marty who quickly called. The big blind was an aggressive young player who reads hands very well and had some experience playing MUCH higher than this limit. When he popped Marty I thought there was a strong chance that he was bluffing at the pot. Marty also suspected this since he called very quickly. The river brought a 9 leaving the board at 5-8-9-8-9 no suit. The blind bet quickly and with authority. I was now convinced the blind held no hand. Marty mucked his hand after saying to the kid "Ace high is good now." I was sitting beside the kid and whispered "Did you even have queen high?" He smiled at me quickly and said no. He wanted to tell me how well he had played the hand so he told me what I suspected.... that he had 10,6. I had no trouble believing him. Marty told me later that he had 5,4 suited in the hand and was going to pay off but was counterfeited on the river. I told him that he could still win that pot by raising on the river but he had misread the kid's PROBABLE holding. Looking closer at the hand, the kid COULD not hold a 9 in his hand. If he was brave enough to check the flop into 6 opponents with a 9, he certainly wouldn't have done it again after everyone passed the flop. He could have held a 9,8 but THIS player played well and read clearly. He KNEW that Marty didn't have much of a hand....certainly Marty didn't hold a 8 or a 9 since he would have bet the flop when it was checked to him. The kid also knew Marty didn't have a straight since he knew Marty played too well to not bet a straight after the flop when the flop was so coordinated. Knowing Marty was weak, I believe the kid would have let Marty bluff and would not have raised Marty if he held a fullhouse. Looking at the kid's hand at this stage ...he doesn't hold a 9 but he could hold an 8 waiting for someone to bluff at the pot(although when the flop was passed I doubted he would allow someone to draw to a straight or flush for free so he likely would have lead the turn with an 8). What about a straight for the kid?? I don't believe this either for the same reasons as I just listed. BUT the real clincher comes when the kid leads on the river with NO FEAR.To lead with no fear the kid would have to have 9's full. Since he can't have a 9 and he wouldn't bet a straight and would be unlikely to bet 8s full I would be fairly certain that he has no hand here. Certainly for the size of the pot ($350 preflop + $400 on the turn + $100 on the river) I would have liked to be Marty in this situation and raised the kid on the river. It was costing Marty $200 to win $850.....or 4.25 to 1 that he was correct with his read. Given all the factors, this was an easy raise to make. Marty is a solid player and he has only learned from this hand since the kid disclosed his holding to me. Hope it was a good read....GRANT PITTMAN | ||
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| Re: An in depth read....opportunity missed, Eman, 8. Oct 2003 12:40 | ||
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| I though you said he was a solid player. Why is he playing a trash hand like 54s.? | ||
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| Re: An in depth read....opportunity missed, Blue Sky, 8. Oct 2003 14:52 | ||
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| Eman, That's a harsh statement and I have to disagree with you....I would love to be given suited connectors one off the button in what sounds like a loose passive game. This is exactly where you want to play them...Late Position with multiple limpers. You want to play this hand exactly like a low pocket pair, get in cheap with many other limpers ahead of you and take a flop...if you miss get out...if you flop big bet the hell out of it. With 6 others in the pot you are almost always going to have the odds to draw to a straight or flush once you see the flop. I agree that your not going to lose much by not playing these hands but your going to gain a ton of chips when you hit...you're also going to throw off the tight as a twele year old image that follows around many of us. You really want to mess with the other players...raise with suited connectors. | ||
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| Re: An in depth read....opportunity missed, mkpoker, 8. Oct 2003 12:47 | ||
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| Thanks for the post. It was a good read. Given the 8,9 on the board, I agree it's unlikely either player held top or even middle pair. You'd need to bet that out to protect against the obvious str8 draw. Don't you think Marty should have re-raised the turn, rather than calling the Kid's raise--especially since both you and Marty suspected the Kid was bluffing. At that point, I'd have put the Kid on some kind of draw and guessed his raise was a semi-bluff. He'd probably throw away a gutshot draw to a reraise. Had he held an open end str8 draw, Kid probably would have called, but at least would have paid more! The river card must have hit Marty like a ton of bricks. Instead of probably having the best hand...he now surely holds the worst. Still, I think you're right that Marty should have tried a bluff-raise on the river. But in his defense, if I were Marty, I'd worry that Kid would make a crying call with any high card. Even if he were on a draw, the Kid could have been holding QT, for example, which is probably worth a crying call for 1 extra bet. Still, bluffing was a risk worth taking. | ||
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