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Think about Shania, Sredni Vashtar, 8. Oct 2003 08:56
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Think about Shania.

I used to call this Yoga, sometimes Yoda (as in that little creature in Star Wars), but now in tribute to Shania Twain, I'll call it Shania. As some of you might know, Shania Twain is rather fond of long yellow brown polecat ferrets named Sredni.

Shania is the totality of profit one makes from a certain situation.


Sredni will show how this works Under The Gun.

Often, you will hear someone put worth how much a certain hand is worth. For example, they might postulate that AA is worth three times the big blind or some such number. But without a context this is not very meaningful.

Let's look at how this might work with AA in limit holdem.

In the first case, a player only plays AA UTG. That's it, nothing else. This doesn't sound like the kinda guy who you would find drinking beer at noon on Tuesday, does he. So his profit from AA is X and X=Shania.

In the second case, a player only plays AA and 23s. That means when he plays it's 60% that he has AA and 40% that he has 23s. So the profit from AA is X, the profit from 23s is Y. Shania consists of the sum of X and Y.

In the third case, the player plays all hands. His Shania is like the Edmund Fitzgerald on that big lake they call Gitche gumee. In this case Shania is equal to the sum of all the profits.



It should be clear from this set of examples that spefically AA would make the most profit by far in the third case, second most in the next case,and least so in the first case. All of this is assuming that your opponents are clinically alive and have at least one sensory organ functioning.


It would be interesting to note what the profit might be in the second case for 23s. It would have the protection of big brother AA, so clearly it would make more (or lose less) than in the third case, where the UTG would get action aplenty.




Now to further delve into this, let's look more closely at the third case. Playing all the hands, at some point you would come across a hand that was dead break even along the continuum. Call this hand XX. Naturally this hand will be different depending on game conditions. Also, as we have seen, the hand range itself would affect XX. The system itself is affected by the membership.

So ultimately the hand range you play (and how you play it) is ultimately determined by the highest Shania, and it does not matter where AA or JTs make a certain amount.


There is an interesting theoretical question that Sredni has pondered for quite some time. It might seem obvious that by taking individual hands that in themselves apparently make money (let's say you use hand histories or computer simulations or expert opinions), that it would necessarily improve your Shania. Sredni has the opinion of one well known theorist who has privately communicated that he does not feel that adding such a hand necessarily improves Shania. It goes against common sense, but nonetheless it might be true.

It also might be very well true that you could add a hand that was in itself negative EV, but improved the Shania. For example, many experts have written to occasionally play 78s or some such hand UTG. This is done to improve Shania, as 78s, in isolation, probably does make money UTG.


Ultimately, the point here is that Shania is the most important considering in your play. Sredni has chosen a simple UTG situation to demonstrate this point, but it applies to all aspects of the game.


Thanks for reading this far, Sredni apologizes for not being more brief.

In the meantime, think about Shania.


Sredni Vashtar,

who is still the one.










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Re: Think about Shania, Schuster, 8. Oct 2003 14:26
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I really enjoyed this post. Good humor but good thoughts behind it. And the "Shania" makes it easier to remember, lol!

Lee
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Re: Think about Shania, modestmice, 8. Oct 2003 15:38
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i agree

on 8. Oct 2003 14:26 Schuster wrote:
> I really enjoyed this post. Good humor but good thoughts behind it. And the
> "Shania" makes it easier to remember, lol!
>
> Lee
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Re: Think about Shania, Formless, 9. Oct 2003 12:31
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The powerful imagery that is Shania is enough to limp-reraise even Big Fitz from the bottom of Superior, and I am quite distracted. Seems to work fine when I change "Shania" to "Celine" though, great post ;-)
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Re: Think about Shania, 4 POKER, 9. Oct 2003 21:06
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Very interesting.

4P-

on 8. Oct 2003 08:56 Sredni Vashtar wrote:
> Think about Shania.
>
> I used to call this Yoga, sometimes Yoda (as in that little creature in Star
> Wars), but now in tribute to Shania Twain, I'll call it Shania. As some of you
> might know, Shania Twain is rather fond of long yellow brown polecat ferrets
> named Sredni.
>
> Shania is the totality of profit one makes from a certain situation.
>
>
> Sredni will show how this works Under The Gun.
>
> Often, you will hear someone put worth how much a certain hand is worth. For
> example, they might postulate that AA is worth three times the big blind or some
> such number. But without a context this is not very meaningful.
>
> Let's look at how this might work with AA in limit holdem.
>
> In the first case, a player only plays AA UTG. That's it, nothing else. This
> doesn't sound like the kinda guy who you would find drinking beer at noon on
> Tuesday, does he. So his profit from AA is X and X=Shania.
>
> In the second case, a player only plays AA and 23s. That means when he plays
> it's 60% that he has AA and 40% that he has 23s. So the profit from AA is X, the
> profit from 23s is Y. Shania consists of the sum of X and Y.
>
> In the third case, the player plays all hands. His Shania is like the Edmund
> Fitzgerald on that big lake they call Gitche gumee. In this case Shania is
> equal to the sum of all the profits.
>
>
>
> It should be clear from this set of examples that spefically AA would make the
> most profit by far in the third case, second most in the next case,and least so
> in the first case. All of this is assuming that your opponents are clinically
> alive and have at least one sensory organ functioning.
>
>
> It would be interesting to note what the profit might be in the second case for
> 23s. It would have the protection of big brother AA, so clearly it would make
> more (or lose less) than in the third case, where the UTG would get action
> aplenty.
>
>
>
>
> Now to further delve into this, let's look more closely at the third case.
> Playing all the hands, at some point you would come across a hand that was dead
> break even along the continuum. Call this hand XX. Naturally this hand will be
> different depending on game conditions. Also, as we have seen, the hand range
> itself would affect XX. The system itself is affected by the membership.
>
> So ultimately the hand range you play (and how you play it) is ultimately
> determined by the highest Shania, and it does not matter where AA or JTs make a
> certain amount.
>
>
> There is an interesting theoretical question that Sredni has pondered for quite
> some time. It might seem obvious that by taking individual hands that in
> themselves apparently make money (let's say you use hand histories or computer
> simulations or expert opinions), that it would necessarily improve your Shania.
> Sredni has the opinion of one well known theorist who has privately
> communicated that he does not feel that adding such a hand necessarily improves
> Shania. It goes against common sense, but nonetheless it might be true.
>
> It also might be very well true that you could add a hand that was in itself
> negative EV, but improved the Shania. For example, many experts have written to
> occasionally play 78s or some such hand UTG. This is done to improve Shania, as
> 78s, in isolation, probably does make money UTG.
>
>
> Ultimately, the point here is that Shania is the most important considering in
> your play. Sredni has chosen a simple UTG situation to demonstrate this point,
> but it applies to all aspects of the game.
>
>
> Thanks for reading this far, Sredni apologizes for not being more brief.
>
> In the meantime, think about Shania.
>
>
> Sredni Vashtar,
>
> who is still the one.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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