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Server Time: 12/1/2008 2:27:58 PM PACIFIC |
 Fulcrumize it, baby, Sredni Vashtar, 8. Oct 2003 04:27 | ||
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| Fulcrumize it, baby. In a below post Mark Gregorich gives us some guidelines about playing AK, and AQ when they miss the flop. This is a very good example of what goes into making a good fulcrum scenario, which in turn allows you to judge similar situations in the future. A fulcrum scenario is a point at which it doesn't really matter what you do because it's break even. So the trick is to determine general cases that are break even. This is a fulcrum scenario. Now all you have to is learn to judge whether the situation that you are currently faced with is better or worse than the fulcrum. If it's better, you call or raise, and if it's worse, you fold. One of the components of the AK/AQ fulcrum is the number of opponents. Many experts suggest this number is 3. More, and you probably give up on continuing your aggression, Less and you should usually continue to act as though you have the best hand. So, to improve your decision process for this common occurance, think up various scenarios that you think are break even or close to it. It really wouldn't help that much if you were given Sredni's fulcrums, because since Sredni created his own,he knows how the variables interact. To be licensed to operate your own fulcrum, you need to know how it works, and the best way to do that is to brew your own. This is one great way to utilize computer simulations. If you have Turbo, set up various flops, give yourself AK, and play em out. To give you are general guideline about where the fulcrum is you can tinker with the variables, and find for yourself where the break even points are, then it's easy to know when the situation is profitable. If you don't have Turbo, you can just deal out cards the old fashion way and do simple calculations on a piece of paper. After time you will find that you have a better grasp of this situation, and in fact you may be an expert on what to do with AK when you miss. As you work, keep your imagination open and just don't go strictly by rote. This is especially true in the case of the simulator. Creativity is ultimately the best tool, and the ferret/human mind can't be matched in that area just yet. Poker is a complex game, and the subtleties and the nuances are where extra profit can hide. You must also consider how your manner of playing AK and AQ gives information or not. If your play of big overcards is easily distinguishable from big overpairs, you will become an easy target. So within a fulcrum framework, you must consider the total effect on how all your hands play out. Remember that this fulcrumization technique can be applied to all aspects of the game. Time spend away from the table making fulcrums will pay big dividends. You will find that expert players can usually be very good at telling you (correctly) that a particular situation is "close". They don't know it, but they've fulcrumized it, baby. Sredni | ||
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| Re: Fulcrumize it, baby, WilliamS, 8. Oct 2003 05:30 | ||
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| Sredni, This is a very good post. One I've never really thought about. Thanks Will | ||
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| Re: Fulcrumize it, baby, Easy E, 8. Oct 2003 09:18 | ||
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| aren't you just slapping your own label on game theory calculations? | ||
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| Re: Fulcrumize it, baby, Formless, 8. Oct 2003 10:01 | ||
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| Objective: Find the fulcrum Tools: TTHE 5.0, pen, paper Scenario: Stacked flop, 100,000 deals, $20-40 limit with 5% rake. Hero is in 10 seat and always has the button and AcKd. Hero is Conan, playing against average.lup (Cecily, Buford, Tricky, Nathan, Red E, Omar, Judicious, Harry H., Renfield from 1 to 9). Generally default settings. Not sure what the hell Conan does on the flop as the TTHE profile interface is tough to work with to do what I want here. Data indicates that hero bets when he has the chance to on the flop, though, with betting frequency around 65-70%. There is plenty of checkraising. Hero generally had the highest bet and raise frequency, though sim #3 was an exception. In all cases hero had smallest average pot won and saw showdown 45-55% of the time, and all tests had around 3.6 -3.9 players per flop. I set up 4 boards to get a feel for for where I am at: Board #1: Qc9h8h Total win/loss: -4,418,404 Saw turn: 83% river 65% showdown 45%. Win %: 20.9% Notes: Co-ordinated, flushy board is sick. Board #2 : JdTd4s Total win/loss: 1,198,514 Saw turn: 83.5% river 76% showdown 56%. Win %: 36.6% Notes: Nice profit here. Board #3: 2c2d6h Total win/loss: 2,398,163 Saw turn: 82.5% river 69% showdown 52.5%. Win %: 44.2% Notes: Very nice profit here, no surprising. Board #4: 7d9hJc Total win/loss: -3,351,666 Saw turn: 79.9% river 68% showdown 45%. Win %: 23.6% Notes: Low kill-zone factor, rainbow, but highly co-ordinated. After looking at the data I figured a gutshot with a negative flush draw would get me real close to the fulcrum: Board #5: QhTh5c Total win/loss: -78,370 Saw turn: 84.3% river 75% showdown 54%. Win %: 34.7% Close enough. This was tedious but I am going to do some more tests with some more tweaks, suggestions welcome. | ||
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| Re: Fulcrumize it, baby, Blade, 8. Oct 2003 11:04 | ||
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| what is a negative flush draw? Just by looking it over I picked up the gut shot as well. It appears as though AKo is profitable when you have two overcards with no high pairs, a nut straight draw, & or a nut flush draw. The apperance of the Q has a noticable effect on profitability. which is not surpising as many will play as low as Q9 to Q7 or perhaps any Q, and these same players would never fold once the Q hit. The difference between the results for board 2 & 4, are a surprising and I will be studying it today as there could be some real insight to found. | ||
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| Re: Fulcrumize it, baby, Snorbolus, 8. Oct 2003 11:50 | ||
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| > The difference between the results for board 2 & 4, are a surprising and I will be > studying it today as there could be some real insight to found...... Not that surprising really. With board 2 you have both an inside draw to the nut straight and a runner-runner nut flush draw. With board 4 you have neither, but still might find yourself against others drawing to straights that you have no part of. By the way, good posts S.Vashtar and Formless (as are all posts from these authors), Snorbolus on 8. Oct 2003 11:04 Blade wrote: > what is a negative flush draw? > > Just by looking it over I picked up the gut shot as well. > > It appears as though AKo is profitable when you have two overcards with no high pairs, a > nut straight draw, & or a nut flush draw. The apperance of the Q has a noticable effect > on profitability. which is not surpising as many will play as low as Q9 to Q7 or perhaps > any Q, and these same players would never fold once the Q hit. > > The difference between the results for board 2 & 4, are a surprising and I will be > studying it today as there could be some real insight to found. | ||
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| Re: Fulcrumize it, baby, Blade, 8. Oct 2003 12:04 | ||
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| Thanks, It appears as though the key card is the 10 which gives a gut shot as oppossed to a runner, runner str8. The runner runner flush draw being key as well. This leads to another interesting situation. Based on the above there appears to be significant value when combining multiple long shot draws. In the above example the inside str8 combined with the backdoor flush have significant +EV. This of course is combined with the two overcards. I would think this is something that is overlooked by many better new players (myself for one) and highlights the importance of pot odds. Thanks again | ||
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| Re: Fulcrumize it, baby, Snorbolus, 8. Oct 2003 12:14 | ||
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| I think that another significant difference is that, with board 2, AdKx has draws that will beat (or at least tie with), the other draws out there. With board 4 it does not. I suspect that there is loads of profit to be had when you draw to a hand that beats hands other players will draw to and make at the same time you hit. Snorbolus on 8. Oct 2003 12:04 Blade wrote: > Thanks, > > It appears as though the key card is the 10 which gives a gut shot as oppossed to a runner, runner > str8. The runner runner flush draw being key as well. > > This leads to another interesting situation. Based on the above there appears to be significant > value when combining multiple long shot draws. In the above example the inside str8 combined with > the backdoor flush have significant +EV. This of course is combined with the two overcards. > > I would think this is something that is overlooked by many better new players (myself for one) and > highlights the importance of pot odds. > > Thanks again | ||
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| Re: Fulcrumize it, baby, modestmice, 9. Oct 2003 22:22 | ||
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| you are the koolist motherfarkker in poker on 8. Oct 2003 04:27 Sredni Vashtar wrote: > Fulcrumize it, baby. > > In a below post Mark Gregorich gives us some guidelines about playing AK, and > AQ when they miss the flop. > > This is a very good example of what goes into making a good fulcrum scenario, > which in turn allows you to judge similar situations in the future. > > A fulcrum scenario is a point at which it doesn't really matter what you do > because it's break even. So the trick is to determine general cases that are > break even. This is a fulcrum scenario. > > Now all you have to is learn to judge whether the situation that you are > currently faced with is better or worse than the fulcrum. If it's better, you > call or raise, and if it's worse, you fold. > > > One of the components of the AK/AQ fulcrum is the number of opponents. Many > experts suggest this number is 3. More, and you probably give up on continuing > your aggression, Less and you should usually continue to act as though you have > the best hand. > > So, to improve your decision process for this common occurance, think up > various scenarios that you think are break even or close to it. It really > wouldn't help that much if you were given Sredni's fulcrums, because since > Sredni created his own,he knows how the variables interact. To be licensed to > operate your own fulcrum, you need to know how it works, and the best way to do > that is to brew your own. > > > This is one great way to utilize computer simulations. If you have Turbo, set > up various flops, give yourself AK, and play em out. To give you are general > guideline about where the fulcrum is you can tinker with the variables, and find > for yourself where the break even points are, then it's easy to know when the > situation is profitable. > > If you don't have Turbo, you can just deal out cards the old fashion way and do > simple calculations on a piece of paper. > > > After time you will find that you have a better grasp of this situation, and > in fact you may be an expert on what to do with AK when you miss. > > As you work, keep your imagination open and just don't go strictly by rote. > This is especially true in the case of the simulator. Creativity is ultimately > the best tool, and the ferret/human mind can't be matched in that area just yet. > Poker is a complex game, and the subtleties and the nuances are where extra > profit can hide. > > You must also consider how your manner of playing AK and AQ gives information > or not. If your play of big overcards is easily distinguishable from big > overpairs, you will become an easy target. So within a fulcrum framework, you > must consider the total effect on how all your hands play out. > > > Remember that this fulcrumization technique can be applied to all aspects of > the game. > > Time spend away from the table making fulcrums will pay big dividends. > You will find that expert players can usually be very good at telling you > (correctly) that a particular situation is "close". They don't know it, but > they've fulcrumized it, baby. > > > Sredni | ||
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