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Server Time: 12/1/2008 10:56:05 AM PACIFIC |
 A mistake in a huge $80-160 pot, Mark Gregorich, 7. Oct 2003 16:24 | ||
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| The other day I was playing in a fired up $80-160 game at Bellagio. I was mostly an observer, however, as I wasn't getting many playable hands. Then, I got involved in a pot which grew to be very large. After 5 players had limped in, Lenny, the player to my right, raised the pot. I called on the button with 9T of clubs, hoping for a big flop. We took the flop seven-handed. The flop was 34T rainbow, a decent flop for me (while it may put me in the lead on the hand, it also might have given me the second best hand, which is an expensive situation in hold'em). Amazingly, the pot was checked to me, so I bet. Two players called, then Ray (an extremely loose, wild player) checkraised. Lenny folded, and I made it three bets, hoping to get rid of the "riff-raff". No such luck, though, as everyone called. The turn was a J, putting two diamonds on the board. The first two players checked, Ray bet out, and I raised (this was more as an attempt to protect my hand in a large pot, than because I was holding such a monster). To my relief, the other two players reluctantly folded, and Ray just called. Now, I felt I had played this hand 100% perfectly up to this point (the only thing I really may have done differently was folding preflop, but this looked like a good spot to gamble). The river card was an offsuit 9, giving me 2 pair. Ray fires out again, and I called immediately, feeling I probably had the best hand but that he could easily show me a straight, as he tended to be stubborn with longshot draws. This was my mistake. Had I taken the time to think it through and recall Ray's tendencies (I'd played with him a lot the past couple of weeks), I would have remembered that Ray was generally willing to lead out with only 1 pair, even when his opponent had shown a good deal of strength in the hand. Then, he would automatically call if he was raised. So, since it was clearly much more likely that he had one pair than a straight, I made a mistake by not raising here. This mistake came from acting too quickly. Coincidentally, most of my major errors in a poker game come when I don't take the time to think through a situation. So, I call, Ray turns over T5 offsuit for 1 pair, and I show my two pair and start raking in a big pot. As I was stacking it, though, I was pretty sure it was $160 light. So, despite winning the hand, I was quite disgusted with myself. Those $160's can really add up, you know - enough of them will turn a winning player into a losing one. Mark | ||
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| Re: A mistake in a huge $80-160 pot, Schuster, 7. Oct 2003 17:44 | ||
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| I have a question Mark... if this player 3 bet you, would you have paid it off or let it go? Also, people play T5o at $80-160? Learn something new every day I guess. Thanks for posting this hand Mark, I always like to get an insight of how you big limit pros play. Lee | ||
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| Re: A mistake in a huge $80-160 pot, Mark Gregorich, 7. Oct 2003 20:33 | ||
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| I would have paid it off Mark | ||
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| Re: A mistake in a huge $80-160 pot, Mark, 7. Oct 2003 20:59 | ||
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| Mark While reading your post, i found it hard to believe that 3-betting the flop and raise the turn would be a solid play for that level. You must have known Ray's play well enough to know he would only check-raise a pretty weak hand in that position. You had top pair, weak kicker and no draw, so i don't see how your hand can stand much heat. I can under stand 3-betting the river to push out overcards who are drawing, but why push again on the turn when an overcard falls. Please tell me that you had great reads on all your opponents and knew that the callers were drawing or wouldn't call a raise with a bettor top pair AND that Ray would only be playing a weak hand in that manner. It seems to be that to play your hand the way you did, you really had to know your opponents welk, Mark | ||
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| Re: A mistake in a huge $80-160 pot, Mark Gregorich, 8. Oct 2003 00:17 | ||
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| Against many opponents I would have folded to a single bet on the turn. Against this player, I felt a raise was correct (I thought there was a decent chance I had him beat, because of my experience playing with him). Had we been head up in the pot, I may well have just called him on the turn. However, with the pot so large and two players sitting behind me who hadn't shown much strength, I felt investing the extra bet was worthwhile in an attempt to eliminate them from the pot. I definitely didn't want to just call and let a player with A3 or A4 (there was a 3 and 4 on the board) draw cheaply - they would be getting the right price for 1 bet, but not for 2. If Ray had me beat, then so be it - there aren't many sure things in poker. Mark | ||
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| Re: A mistake in a huge $80-160 pot, Sredni Vashtar, 8. Oct 2003 04:02 | ||
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| It is probably safe to assume that you will be reraised when you are beaten, so you need to more than a 2-1 favorite on the end to raise. How much a favorite you need to be depends on a number of factors, but we'll ignore those for simplicity and just assume you will be three bet only by better hands (of course if he only three bet with better hands you should never call, but nevermind....), and he will always call your raise. If the 10-5 is a reflection of what type of hands he plays, there is a whole heck of a lot of hands he could hold that would beat your two pair, including jacks up. However, Sredni does agree that you are probably more than a 2-1 favorite, but not necessarily as much of one as your self critical post might indicate. Sredni does understand your strive for excellence. If we assume your good 72% of the time, that means you made about a 25 dollar error. If you are good 59% of the time, that means you had a savings of about 37 dollars. It should be clear from this example that an error on the side of raising is more costly than just calling for equivalent error margins. Meta Game considerations: There is also some meta game considerations that would seem to favor raising. The raise on the river says "Don't thin value bet me because I'm the raising kind of ferret." This might help get you some check downs, which can be nice if you've put in a turn raise on the opponent elimination program. Sredni thinks you played the hand excellently except the relatively small error on the end. The turn raise more than makes up for this. Finally, I do think your post brings up an important point that you seem to be making yourself. When I first started playing years ago, a long time small time pro told me that I had a leak in my game, he called it "relief checking." Basically it means that you would slow down on the river, either checking or just calling because the pot was no longer at stake and you were just relieved to get there and probably win. Your relief is causing your grief. And he was right, Sredni was relief checking to much back then. While your calling on the river wasn't necessarily a relief call, Sredni thinks it is similar in a practical sense. Sredni | ||
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| Re: A mistake in a huge $80-160 pot, Jordan, 9. Oct 2003 10:15 | ||
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| That's a good post. But is it necessary to speak in the third person? | ||
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