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Server Time: 12/1/2008 12:05:29 PM PACIFIC |
 Interesting sng hand, Schuster, 7. Oct 2003 14:28 | ||
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| The blinds are 100 200 and I've managed to whittle myself painfull low with 6 players left. Top 3 pay according to the normal structure and I'm shortest stack. I'm in the small blind with 295 remaining after I post the blind and I get A4o. UTG and UTG+1 limp and it's folded to me. Neither of the early players is overly good, and they have been playing a little loose throughout the tournament. They will raise if they have a premium hand but will limp with a lot of questionable hands like KT or QJ regardless of position, even low suited connectors. If I move all in, the early limpers will call, and they are smart enough not to bluff at the sidepot if they have nothing. The big blind has about 900 chips remaining, he may or may not call. He had also been rather loose throughout, and I was pretty sure he would call with any kind of hand, and only fold the true trash. I only have 3 options here, raise, call, or fold. I thought for a while on this one. If I raise, I will have to have the best hand against 2 likely 3 people. It may be worth it to get the big blind out, but If I fold, I will get to see 5 more hands before I'm forced to play in my big blind. If I call, I can see the flop and then have more options. I can fold if it is ugly, or put the rest of my chips in if I hit an ace. It's possible that I hit a 4 and a flop bet would be enough to get one or two people to drop, which would be good. It's a small chance that my ace high will be the best on the flop. Either way, betting the flop has a chance of getting at least some of the other players out. I choose to just call and see if I could hit an ace, and folded to when the board offered me nothing. After looking back, I don't think I made the right decision. In fact, I think I made the worst decision given my three options, but I'm interested to hear others thoughts. What would you have done? Lee | ||
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| Re: Interesting sng hand, 4 POKER, 7. Oct 2003 21:15 | ||
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| Hey Lee, (You stated that you had the shortest stack), but what were the stacks in relation to yours? If there were a few short stacks that were comparable to mine (yours), then perhaps I would fold that hand and hope that by the time it got back to my big blind, that one or two more of them would bust out. I don't know, that's a tough spot to be in with that holding, even if Ace high is the best at the moment. If I thought that by raising the hand, I could possibly knock out one of those early limpers, and the BB, then maybe I would try that. (but you kinda knew they were all gonna call, right?) Even the BB is probably calling there because you stated that he was loose, so now that I think about, maybe raising it there would be a bad move given the situation. The hand just doesn't seem strong enough against 3 players who you know are going to call you. One player, Yes, I may raise all-in...but not against three of them. But calling preflop (which was your choice of plays) has merit, too, because you will be allowing yourself to win a nice pot if you hit, while giving yourself that extra option of folding on the flop if you don't improve, and you'll still have a few chips left. I'm curious Lee, did you think you should have folded? Dave | ||
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| Re: Interesting sng hand, Schuster, 8. Oct 2003 14:09 | ||
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| I believe the next shortest was about 800. If I had a little more, I might try to wait it out, but 3 people going broke in 5 hands is a pretty big longshot. Anyway, I've been thinking a lot about this and here are my thoughts on each option. I'm still not convinced I got to the right conclusion. If I raise all in, the action so far suggests that my 4 is likely to be the lowest of any of the 8 cards out there. That means that hitting my 4 will rarely help me more than just ace high, and ace high is not very liable to be good against 3 opponents. If I am the only one who has an ace, I figured I was about a 27% chance to survive, given the range of hands I thought they might have. It's pretty ballpark, but I'd be surprised if it was off by more than 2%. So, if I am the only ace, my EV is about +16 with a survival rate of 27%. If someone else has an ace, their kicker is almost surely higher than mine, and I am in a much worse position that a similar situation with AK vs AQ. There's no way a 4 will be top pair, which is part of the trouble. I'd estimate that I'm 17% to win if someone else has an ace. EV is -56 with a 17% survival chance. Not good at all. If you weight the odds of someone having another ace in their hand and compare EV, it's probably about break even, but my survival rate is a little lower than 25%. I stated that I felt that I made the worst possible choice, but after considering further, I believe that pushing all in before the flop would have been the worst choice. Like I said, the blind was a loose player and would almost assuredly call, and the other 2 players would not call 200 then fold for 195 more. The lack of being suited really hurts here. An extra 5% would really make a big difference. My instincts tell me I would rather have a QJs or JTs here than the ace high. Even if I am dominated, I can hit my other card that may hold up as top pair, and the additional flush and straight potential adds a lot multiway. If I fold, I'll have almost 300 chips left. I believe that the 300 may be a big difference between 200 because if I raise all in for 300 (hopefully first in) the small blind will be much less inclined to call than if I just called all in for 200. He's getting 3.5 to 1 call assuming the big blind will also call if I have 300, but 5 to 1 to call if I only have 200. Either way, he should be calling, but even the chance of getting my last stand down to a heads up pot is worth the chips in my eye. This option is viable. The EV is likely less but the survival chance goes up. The next option is calling with the intention of folding if I miss the flop. This puts me at the dreaded 200 mark as I discussed above, and leaves me in a position to play my last hand as a 3 way, maybe more pot. It's also a small chance that I'd be folding the bets hand with ace high, and while there are a lot of ways for it to be overtaken, a bet may fold some people out. I really don't like this option at all. I'm paying 2/3 of my remaining stack to see if I pair the ace, which is only a little better than 5 to 1. The last option is calling with the intention of putting the last of my chips in on the flop, by either betting no matter what falls, or calling a bet. If I bet the last of my chips on the flop, almost any hand would be correct in calling, unless I pair the ace. They are loose players, and will probably call with just about any hand. It really isn't a whole lot better than just going all in before the flop, but there is a small chance that they fold. If, however, I check, two things can happen. Either it gets checked around and I can see a free card, which is good for me, or someone will bet. If someone bets, the others in the pot might see it as a legitimate hand betting to get me out of there. The bettor will probably have a better hand that I do, but he would have called my bet with the same hand. The difference is that I think this gives the others the highest chance of folding, and myself the highest chance of survival. If I had to do it again, this is the option I would have taken. It's probably not very important to discuss a situation like this because even if I play it perfectly, the chances of coming back are low. But, a lot of situations add up, and this is probably one of the purest poker problems available in that there is a minimal dependence on my opponents tendencies. I got my gears turning and I thought I would share, thanks for the response Dave. Let me know what you think of my reasoning! Lee | ||
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| Re: Interesting sng hand, 4 POKER, 8. Oct 2003 16:27 | ||
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| Hey Lee, I thought about it some more, and now I'm going against what I said earlier. I think you were in a tough spot no matter what choice you make. If the others had alot more chips than you, then there's not much you can do there. I think I would have just raised all-in, and hoped for the best. In five hands you're going to be all-in anyway, no matter what, and by the looks of it, I'm sure nobody else was going to commit too many of their chips that would've left you in a better position then you were in at the present time. If one or two of them had a similar chip count, then perhaps you could've actually folded that hand in hopes that by the time it got back to your blind again, that one of them would be busted out. But in your spot, with Ace high......I think I'm taking the gamble there, and raising all in. You analyzed everything really well, but I believe....this is one of those times where there's really not much you can do and make it be effective enough to work in your favor. This is where luck really has to be on your side! Perhaps someone who plays alot of SnG's will offer their opinions, as well. take care. Dave | ||
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| Re: Interesting sng hand, mroban, 9. Oct 2003 07:37 | ||
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| Seriously Lee, that is one heck of an analysis. And believe me I am no more knowledgable than you (talking to the guy that busted you out of a NL tournament with A9 against your AK for chrissake). But like 4Poker said (much more eloquently than myself) if you have only a 17% chance on that hand, so what? Thats probably better odds than you have in getting back into the money if you fold that hand. My only reservation now (on second reflection) would be that if the table was tight and you could make a series of allin bets from the button and the cutoff that wouldnt be called, then you could pick up another 600 in blinds, folding could be a decent option. But it sounds like the players to your right were limping with mediocre hands. I stand by my instinct to go allin even if the play has a low probability of suceess. If you hit your hand, you could pick up a big pot and get right back into the game. Probably your best spot you are going to get there. | ||
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| Re: Interesting sng hand, mroban, 9. Oct 2003 07:28 | ||
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| Schuster: Not sure if my response is one that the experts will think is correct, but I go allin here. Seems like your read on the limpers and the BB was that they are loose players and this might be your best opportunity to get back in the game. Since they will all call you (most likely) you can pick up a huge pot here. Not a great hand, but probably your best shot at getting back into the game. I go allin and if I bust out c'est la vie. on 7. Oct 2003 14:28 Schuster wrote: > The blinds are 100 200 and I've managed to whittle myself painfull low with 6 > players left. Top 3 pay according to the normal structure and I'm shortest > stack. I'm in the small blind with 295 remaining after I post the blind and I > get A4o. UTG and UTG+1 limp and it's folded to me. Neither of the early > players is overly good, and they have been playing a little loose throughout the > tournament. They will raise if they have a premium hand but will limp with a > lot of questionable hands like KT or QJ regardless of position, even low suited > connectors. If I move all in, the early limpers will call, and they are smart > enough not to bluff at the sidepot if they have nothing. The big blind has > about 900 chips remaining, he may or may not call. He had also been rather > loose throughout, and I was pretty sure he would call with any kind of hand, and > only fold the true trash. I only have 3 options here, raise, call, or fold. > > I thought for a while on this one. If I raise, I will have to have the best > hand against 2 likely 3 people. It may be worth it to get the big blind out, > but If I fold, I will get to see 5 more hands before I'm forced to play in my > big blind. If I call, I can see the flop and then have more options. I can > fold if it is ugly, or put the rest of my chips in if I hit an ace. It's > possible that I hit a 4 and a flop bet would be enough to get one or two people > to drop, which would be good. It's a small chance that my ace high will be the > best on the flop. Either way, betting the flop has a chance of getting at least > some of the other players out. > > I choose to just call and see if I could hit an ace, and folded to when the > board offered me nothing. After looking back, I don't think I made the right > decision. In fact, I think I made the worst decision given my three options, but > I'm interested to hear others thoughts. What would you have done? > > Lee | ||
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| Re: Interesting sng hand, WilliamS, 9. Oct 2003 09:26 | ||
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| I think this is a perfect example of needing to get your chips in the middle while you still have enough chips to make a difference even if you're an underdog. I may be way off in this hypothesis, but I feel it is better to get your chips in the middle (even against 3-4 players) with 300T vs. waiting and possibly having to go all in with less money on an even less desirable hand. I know at this point your success is highly dependent on short term luck, but I feel it is imperative to make a move while you have enough chips to get back into contention. I'm not sure the extra players in the pot don't actually make this a MORE appealing spot to go all-in due to the extra payoff if you're lucky enough to hit a hand. Granted, the more players the less chance of you winning, but your going to have to go from 300 to over 2000 to have a legitimate chance of winning the thing anyway so why not make a move when there is something more than the blinds to be gained from it? This kind of rambled, sorry Will | ||
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