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Server Time: 12/1/2008 2:43:32 PM PACIFIC |
 Paying Off...The Equation, Roy Cooke, 7. Oct 2003 07:11 | ||
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| How does one determine how/when to pay off? One needs to compare the price the pot is laying you (How much will you win if your hand is good) vs the cost to pay off (Sometime that is just an educated judgment). If there is $100 in the pot after an opponent bet the river and it is $10 to call...then you only need to have a greater than 10% chance to win the pot in order to make the call a positive expectation play! Keep the price the pot is laying you in mind when analyzing if you should call. Roy Cooke | ||
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| Re: Paying Off...The Equation, ReMMy, 7. Oct 2003 07:41 | ||
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| I had an interesting 5/10 hand a couple days ago... I was on the button w/ 7 limpers before me. A9s and I threw in a raise, basically just to make all the people holding Q9o and the like pay for their bad play. =) The flop came 479 rainbow, SB checked and BB bet out. 3 callers after him so I raised it to 2 bets. SB called the 2 bets as did BB and the 3 limpers. The turn brought a second 4, SB checked again, and BB bet out once more. 2 limpers folded, the guy to my right called, I called and so did the SB. The river brought a 2, no flush possible. Again SB checked, BB bet out, the guy on my right called, and I folded top pair top kicker. The pot was almost $200 and BB showed a pair of 7's, the guy on my right showed a pair of 9's w/ a Q kicker, and SB folded. I actually had the winning hand and $10 would have won me $200. Did I make the right move by folding since there was already one player calling the aggressor, and still the SB who very well might have been sandbagging a 4 or something? It's all about the odds, heads up I would obviously call without a question, but I think that the next 20 times I'm in that situation, I will lose my $10. The problem was that it was 2am and I was pretty tired. Had I seen the board more clearly and known that no straights were possible. and only a 4 or a pocket pair could have beaten me, I probably would have called. I think this topic is a very important one, and a large leak in many players games. I almost never fold a valid hand if noone else has called the agressor yet, and i rarely call a hand that has had a lot of action with only top pair if more than one person has already paid to see... Find out what people are having by raising the flop, if you think you're going to have to pay bets on the turn or the river become the aggressor and make them figure out if they should be paying you off! The raise you put in on the turn can often tell you right there if you're beat, or may end up saving you a big bet in later rounds, it might even win the pot right there... I've found in LL that when you raise the flop from late position and the initial bettor bets out into you on the turn once again you're usually beaten, unless you know the person is a crazy bettor. Sorry for the long post! | ||
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| Re: Paying Off...The Equation, Blue Sky, 7. Oct 2003 08:24 | ||
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| ReMMy, You unforuntantly ran into a couple of bad players. I think from the information you have provided that you made a good laydown. In the end your laydown was proven to be incorrect, but you had no way of knowing that when you did it. The BB was announcing a flopped set and turned boat or atleast an over pair. When an EP player calls two bets cold pre-flop and then leads out on the betting twice even after a raise I would assume he has a much better hand then he showed down. Another quick comment on your post. If its 2am and your tired and not paying attention - get away from the game! Your going to cost yourself money. Either leave all together or atleast take a break and get some fresh air or whatever it takes to wake yourself up. | ||
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| Re: Paying Off...The Equation, 4 POKER, 7. Oct 2003 09:09 | ||
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| ReMMy, my comments are within. on 7. Oct 2003 07:41 ReMMy wrote: > I had an interesting 5/10 hand a couple days ago... > > I was on the button w/ 7 limpers before me. A9s and I threw in a raise, basically > just to make all the people holding Q9o and the like pay for their bad play. =) 4P: I'm not sure I agree with your *reason* for raising here. A9 suited is not a powerhouse! Okay, 7 players limp, and perhaps you can throw in a 'value' raise in case you flop something really strong like a flush. But after there are already all those limpers......even if you flop an Ace, it's going to be hard to know exactly where you stand against 7 other opponents. > > The flop came 479 rainbow, SB checked and BB bet out. 3 callers after him so I > raised it to 2 bets. SB called the 2 bets as did BB and the 3 limpers. 4P: RIGHT HERE is where you need to make your decision, and start analyzing the possibilities. > > The turn brought a second 4, SB checked again, and BB bet out once more. 2 limpers > folded, the guy to my right called, I called and so did the SB. 4P: If you called a bet here (or should I say, when) you called a bet here....did you still think you had the best hand? It's okay if you did and don't get me wrong......but you should be knowing why you are still calling, and to me it sounds like you called because you thought your top pair/top kicker was good......correct? > > The river brought a 2, no flush possible. Again SB checked, BB bet out, the guy on > my right called, and I folded top pair top kicker. 4P: I don't know why you folded here. When you raised the flop, and got called.....and then called the turn when you got bet into.......then how does this street (the river) change your decision to not calling one more bet? On the turn, the BB bets out and the guy to your right called. (yes, he was still calling!) Well the same thing happened on the river. The BB bets out and the guy to your right, called. Your hand still remained the same here. Top pair/Top kicker. It's not like a raise was put in here by the guy to your right....it was "bet",... "call". > > The pot was almost $200 and BB showed a pair of 7's, the guy on my right showed a > pair of 9's w/ a Q kicker, and SB folded. I actually had the winning hand and $10 > would have won me $200. > > Did I make the right move by folding since there was already one player calling the > aggressor, and still the SB who very well might have been sandbagging a 4 or > something? 4P: In my opinion.........No, you did not make the right decision, (as the card that showed up at the river was probably one of the safest cards for you IF your hand was good all along. And obviously you "thought" it was good because you raised it on the flop, AND you called a big bet on the turn. Could somebody have been sandbagging?.....possibly. Could somebody hold a pocket pair that was bigger than your top pair, nines?......possibly. Did you think of those possibilities 'before' you kept calling? And did you feel your raises and calls were correct prior to the last card showing up? Yes? Well that's why I think you need to pay off the river for one more big bet. > > It's all about the odds, heads up I would obviously call without a question, but I > think that the next 20 times I'm in that situation, I will lose my $10. The problem > was that it was 2am and I was pretty tired. Had I seen the board more clearly and > known that no straights were possible. and only a 4 or a pocket pair could have > beaten me, I probably would have called. 4P: Yes, playing when you're tired can make you lose focus. > > I think this topic is a very important one, and a large leak in many players games. > I almost never fold a valid hand if noone else has called the agressor yet, and i > rarely call a hand that has had a lot of action with only top pair if more than one > person has already paid to see... > > Find out what people are having by raising the flop, if you think you're going to > have to pay bets on the turn or the river become the aggressor and make them figure > out if they should be paying you off! The raise you put in on the turn can often tell > you right there if you're beat, or may end up saving you a big bet in later rounds, > it might even win the pot right there... > > I've found in LL that when you raise the flop from late position and the initial > bettor bets out into you on the turn once again you're usually beaten, unless you > know the person is a crazy bettor. 4P: "crazy bettor" can = good player, too! (especially if he can get someone to throw away a better hand! If you know your opponents tendencies you'll have an easier time playing your own hands better and more effictively. If you don't know a certain player, then make the best decision you can make when taking everything else into factor. 4P: If you can analyze the entire situation, during its play........then it can be easier for you to make correct calls, and fold off hands when you think you need to, by not putting in any more money into the pot. Saved bets add up and correct calls also factor into a big part of your potential earn. (But these saved bets can take place before the river card comes up, too!). 4 POKER > > Sorry for the long post! | ||
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| Re: Paying Off...The Equation, Stevolley2, 7. Oct 2003 10:42 | ||
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| When playing low limits, unless you are certain you are beat, I think you should call. Also know the players that can try to bluff you off a hand like that with two pair, not trips. It has won me enough money in the past. | ||
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| Re: Paying Off...The Equation, Blade, 7. Oct 2003 11:26 | ||
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| This illustrates exactly why I think you have to stay away from these marginal hands. You got in the middle of the pot but because you did not like the strength of your hand you ended up folding the winnner & costing yourself the extra bets that got you there. A9 suited in late position with several callers, definently deserves a call. But a raise? serves no purpose and actually cost yourself the pot. I'll explain below. Your reasoning is almost funny because you are infact overplaying a "marginal hand" and punishing yourself with the extra bet. What would you have done with a reraise, or worse if some maniac made it two more bets to you? So the flop comes and to the guy with the 77 probably puts you on overcards. He bets out to see your strength. You raise and he calls. He probably thinks you are using a common tatic of representing and trying to buy the pot. As I would as well. This is why he bets out again to see how you react to a big bet. This is right where you lose the pot. You don't raise. which tells him AK and I am trying to hit a overcard to get back the money I put in. We have all seen players do this. (ie Big Slick) If you raise here you tell him I do infact have a hand that can atleast beat a pair of nines, so unless you have a set fold. If you raise here he either folds here or it checks all the to you on the river. But by just calling you verify his incorrect read. which would have been good for you until the river. I am not going to cover the river as it is pretty obvious. but basically you played it like someone chasing AK. Now I really think you preflop raise killed you. If you just call and then raise the flop he makes you for atleast a pair of nines or a set both of which beat him. He most likely checks the turn and folds, or check-calls the whole way. In low limit marignal players 90% of the time assume a raise is overcards. With a rag flop they will assume you missed until you beat them over the head. This should be clear because THIS IS HOW THEY PLAY and people naturally assume others do as they do. This is why good players get upset over bad beats. Put yourself if your opponents head. Comments from others (4poker & crew) on my read would be greately appreciated. | ||
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| Re: Paying Off...The Equation, 4 POKER, 7. Oct 2003 17:40 | ||
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| on 7. Oct 2003 11:26 Blade wrote: > This illustrates exactly why I think you have to stay away from these marginal hands. You > got in the middle of the pot but because you did not like the strength of your hand you > ended up folding the winnner & costing yourself the extra bets that got you there. > > A9 suited in late position with several callers, definently deserves a call. But a > raise? serves no purpose and actually cost yourself the pot. I'll explain below. Your > reasoning is almost funny because you are infact overplaying a "marginal hand" and > punishing yourself with the extra bet. What would you have done with a reraise, or worse > if some maniac made it two more bets to you? > > So the flop comes and to the guy with the 77 probably puts you on overcards. He bets > out to see your strength. You raise and he calls. He probably thinks you are using a > common tatic of representing and trying to buy the pot. As I would as well. This is why > he bets out again to see how you react to a big bet. This is right where you lose the > pot. You don't raise. which tells him AK and I am trying to hit a overcard to get back > the money I put in. We have all seen players do this. (ie Big Slick) > > If you raise here you tell him I do infact have a hand that can atleast beat a pair of > nines, so unless you have a set fold. If you raise here he either folds here or it checks > all the to you on the river. But by just calling you verify his incorrect read. which > would have been good for you until the river. > > I am not going to cover the river as it is pretty obvious. but basically you played it > like someone chasing AK. > > Now I really think you preflop raise killed you. If you just call and then raise the > flop he makes you for atleast a pair of nines or a set both of which beat him. He most > likely checks the turn and folds, or check-calls the whole way. > > In low limit marignal players 90% of the time assume a raise is overcards. With a rag > flop they will assume you missed until you beat them over the head. This should be clear > because THIS IS HOW THEY PLAY and people naturally assume others do as they do. This is > why good players get upset over bad beats. > > Put yourself if your opponents head. > > > Comments from others (4poker & crew) on my read would be greately appreciated. Hi Blade, I really like your thought process throughout the hand. The only part that I slightly disagree with is that, you don't think A9 suited on the button should be raised. imo, It's okay to put in a (value) raise in case it hits (the flush), because you do have good position, and there are already many limpers in. Calling is okay too, but the occasional raise (especially if you play your hands well/correctly) post-flop...is something to consider, too. The point I was trying to make to ReMMy about his/her preflop raise, was his reasoning for doing so. He stated that he wanted to raise to make the players "pay" for playing weak hands like Q-9, and although I do agree with putting in a raise there.......I would make that raise as a value raise in case I hit, but not because I was trying to punish anyone for limping in. To me, that reasoning doesn't hold enough merit because A9 is not that strong either, all on its own. 4P- | ||
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| Re: Paying Off...The Equation, Blade, 7. Oct 2003 19:45 | ||
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| I can see your point on the raise. I prefer to bet or raise on the draw once in awhile especially with the nut draw as I find that you can get alot players with weaker flush unwilling to accpept that you have a high flush. My disagreement is #1 with the reason stated and #2 I would generally save that play for a holding of atleast A10s. I know it may be splitting hairs but for some reason there seems to be difference between the suited holding with the 10 & the 9. I haven't done any simulations on this so as of now it is just my gut instinct backed up by not nearly enough experience. A10 does allow for the str8 possibilty so there is probably some small EV in that. I think the most important statement of this discussion was when you said this is a play for players who play well after the flop. | ||
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| Re: Paying Off...The Equation, 4 POKER, 7. Oct 2003 20:14 | ||
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| Hey, That's a very valid point you just brought up. A-10 will have more outs to hit than A-9. I don't think that it should be a mandatory raise with either one of those holdings (in that spot, both being suited).....but occasionally, just for value, and to 'mix it up' just a bit, is okay. But.... there's also nothing wrong with limping along for the ride either. It's one of those hands that can go either way, really: ) 4P- | ||
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| Re: Paying Off...The Equation, Lou Krieger, 7. Oct 2003 10:54 | ||
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| on 7. Oct 2003 07:11 Roy Cooke wrote: "How does one determine how/when to pay off? One needs to compare the price the pot is laying you (How much will you win if your hand is good) vs the cost to pay off (Sometime that is just an educated judgment). If there is $100 in the pot after an opponent bet the river and it is $10 to call...then you only need to have a greater than 10% chance to win the pot in order to make the call a positive expectation play! Keep the price the pot is laying you in mind when analyzing if you should call." Knowledge of your opponent also has to be factored into your thinking. If you're up against an opponent who never bluffs, you'd seldom call when he bets unless you had a raising hand. If you were playing agasinst someone who bluffed each and every time he missed his hand, you'd call with any hand strong enough to beat a bluff. But most players are in that vast middle ground, and you have to make an educated guess about whether your opponent might be bluffing and adjust your calling strategies accordingly. And if you have absolutely no knowledge about your opponent's playing proclivities, and are heads up, you can always use game theory to decide whether to call or fold. Lou Krieger Raise your game with Lou Krieger, author of "Poker For Dummies" and five other books about poker, at Royal Vegas Poker http://www.royalvegaspoker.com/lou | ||
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| Re: Paying Off...The Equation, shutupndeal, 8. Oct 2003 17:49 | ||
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| Wow, is this really you real estate guy? : ) Good to see a familiar signature! I have been in touch with a few of your cronies and maybe one day soon I will get to speak to you, I really really dig your advice on upper middle limits and thanx for the effort! Are you still working at or for a certain poker room? I dont want to say too much here so you can answer most of this! lol Ok, its almost time for my repeat of the WPT here, Im on the east coast but will be moving back out that way soon, maybe Ill even let you show me a few things around town as far as accomodations are concerned! Have a great one partner! | ||
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