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Server Time: 12/1/2008 11:14:20 AM PACIFIC |
 HE hand analysis please, Angel, 5. Oct 2003 00:59 | ||
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| I sat down tonight, behind the button in what looked like a fairly soft 9-handed $20/$40 HE game and picked up the Ad9d. Its a must post game so when UTG (who's about an average strength player) brought it in for a raise and there were 3 callers when it got to me - it was an easy call. Button mucked and both blinds called - we took the flop 7-handed. $280 pot. Flop came 4d8d7c, checked to the pre-flop raiser who bet out - UTG+1 called, fold and then a raise to me. I call the two bets and it's folded around to the original bettor who calls and UTG+1 folds for the additional bet. $420 in the pot as we see the turn 3-handed: 5h. Ok, this is where I'm looking for some feedback. UTG checks - I figure he's weak probably AK or AQs, I considered an overpair until he just called the raise on the flop - he's one of those players who is going to 3 bet it on the flop with any kind of a made hand. The MP bets out and I'm pretty sure he's got an overpair to the board; A8s is possible - I don't know this player but if he's typical for this game, then he likely thinks A8 is playable for two bets from any position. Ok, so A8s or an overpair....there are certainly alot more overpairs than there are A8's. I've got the nut diamond draw, a 6 for a gutshot straight that I'm sure will be good if I hit it. 12 outs and I'm certain UTG is calling to draw to 1 pair - so the effective pot odds are 12.5:1 if UTG calls and 11.5:1 if he doesn't. Thinking about it though I was sure that UTG had an ace. If I could get his better ace out I would probably pick up another 2 outs (assuming MP didn't have A8 but it would beat any overpair but AA). I could do that with a raise and despite the size of the pot - I don't have to call on the river unless I hit (because I'll have nothingif I don't). So I raise. UTG mucks - MP calls and the river brings a 5d - pairing the board but also bringing my diamonds. MP checks - he's disgusted and it's no act, I bet - he pays me off and throws QQ face up into the muck. The UTG player remarked that I didn't want an ace - claiming AKs. Ok, so I win - but later a pro whom I have played against rarely but who has very good long term results commented that he thought the raise on the turn was a terrible play and was surprised to have seen me make it so that's my question - opinions please? | ||
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| Re: HE hand analysis please, betelgeese, 5. Oct 2003 01:39 | ||
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| (pros know everything)i dont think it was a terrible play, but i'd love to hear a resident pro explain why it was a bad play, if it was. on 5. Oct 2003 00:59 Angel wrote: > I sat down tonight, behind the button in what looked like a fairly soft 9-handed > $20/$40 HE game and picked up the Ad9d. Its a must post game so when UTG (who's > about an average strength player) brought it in for a raise and there were 3 > callers when it got to me - it was an easy call. Button mucked and both blinds > called - we took the flop 7-handed. $280 pot. Flop came 4d8d7c, checked to the > pre-flop raiser who bet out - UTG+1 called, fold and then a raise to me. I call > the two bets and it's folded around to the original bettor who calls and UTG+1 > folds for the additional bet. $420 in the pot as we see the turn 3-handed: 5h. > Ok, this is where I'm looking for some feedback. UTG checks - I figure he's > weak probably AK or AQs, I considered an overpair until he just called the raise > on the flop - he's one of those players who is going to 3 bet it on the flop > with any kind of a made hand. The MP bets out and I'm pretty sure he's got an > overpair to the board; A8s is possible - I don't know this player but if he's > typical for this game, then he likely thinks A8 is playable for two bets from > any position. Ok, so A8s or an overpair....there are certainly alot more > overpairs than there are A8's. I've got the nut diamond draw, a 6 for a gutshot > straight that I'm sure will be good if I hit it. 12 outs and I'm certain UTG is > calling to draw to 1 pair - so the effective pot odds are 12.5:1 if UTG calls > and 11.5:1 if he doesn't. Thinking about it though I was sure that UTG had an > ace. If I could get his better ace out I would probably pick up another 2 outs > (assuming MP didn't have A8 but it would beat any overpair but AA). I could do > that with a raise and despite the size of the pot - I don't have to call on the > river unless I hit (because I'll have nothingif I don't). So I raise. UTG > mucks - MP calls and the river brings a 5d - pairing the board but also bringing > my diamonds. MP checks - he's disgusted and it's no act, I bet - he pays me off > and throws QQ face up into the muck. The UTG player remarked that I didn't > want an ace - claiming AKs. Ok, so I win - but later a pro whom I have played > against rarely but who has very good long term results commented that he thought > the raise on the turn was a terrible play and was surprised to have seen me make > it so that's my question - opinions please? | ||
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| Re: HE hand analysis please, Allyc, 5. Oct 2003 03:23 | ||
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| Given that MP didn't reraise preflop but raised on the flop with 5 still in the hand, wouldn't holdings like 65,87,77,88 be a possibility, and at least cancelling the ace as an out? | ||
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| Re: HE hand analysis please, Angel, 5. Oct 2003 04:28 | ||
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| Well you know, I didn't strongly consider those possibilities and perhaps I should have. Thinking back on the hand and trying to figure out why I didn't and I don't have a great answer. There were 9 ways for him to make a set on the flop - 3 each card which is also how many ways there are to make A8s and I DID consider that. There were 30 ways for him to make an overpair however and so he is 30 to 12 against having a hand where I pick up 2 extra outs by getting the UTG player out. If he does have the set I've still got 10 outs on the hand and I'm willing to risk another $40 on the 71.5% (30:12) of the time that he doesn't and my raise improves my chances to win the pot. | ||
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| Re: HE hand analysis please, Mark, 5. Oct 2003 08:27 | ||
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| At first i liked your play, pushing out the better ace so yours may win if an ace comes on the river. But the more i thought about it, the more it seems like a wasted bet. Your bet has a -EV if the bettor has A8, a str8 (unlikely), 2 pair, a set or a smaller flush draw. For your ace to be good, the bettor would need an overpair, or a pair with a draw ( the only likely hands you have beat). So betting does not seem like a clear cut play. There are many hands that could still beat you even if you hit your ace. Since your ace may not be good, you're still drawing to the nut flush or a str8 and would like to have the UTG player call along for the ride. Your play was well thought out. The outcome really depends on what you can limit the flop raiser to. If you can reliably limit his possible hands to a medium/highpair or two big cards, then he probably has an overpair and your bet is good. But if he would also play 88, 77, 66, 55, 67, or A8, then your Ace may not be good. Mark | ||
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| Re: HE hand analysis please, Barry T, 5. Oct 2003 09:42 | ||
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| Hi. The raise was marginal, but certainly not terrible. You are definitely thinking alonng the correct lines, though. Developing extra outs is a crtical skill, and is not well covered in the literature. When the pot becomes large, this sort of play can win you a couple of pots a year and make a big difference in your earn. I need to answer a question you did not ask. I think your call on the flop is incorrect. You have nothing but runner-runner draws...you cannot think a 9 or A will be good. Yes I see you caught a really good turn and won the pot, but I can tell you for sure I would not have been in it. BarryT | ||
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| Re: HE hand analysis please, gary ford, 5. Oct 2003 09:52 | ||
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| on 5. Oct 2003 09:42 Barry T wrote: > Hi. The raise was marginal, but certainly not terrible. You are definitely > thinking alonng the correct lines, though. Developing extra outs is a crtical skill, > and is not well covered in the literature. When the pot becomes large, this sort of > play can win you a couple of pots a year and make a big difference in your earn. > > I need to answer a question you did not ask. I think your call on the flop is > incorrect. You have nothing but runner-runner draws...you cannot think a 9 or A will > be good. Yes I see you caught a really good turn and won the pot, but I can tell you > for sure I would not have been in it. > > BarryT Hi Barry---- I'm confused--- you say the flop call is runner runner--i reread the post 3 times and each time his draw is to the nut flush.--Did I miss something? | ||
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| Re: HE hand analysis please, Stevolley2, 5. Oct 2003 09:54 | ||
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| Barry I do agree the call on the flop was incorrect, a re-raise would have been better, He had the lock Diamond draw. It buys free cards, forces the raiser to define his hand and folds overcards. Of course if the original raiser is cap-happy and will cap with any draw, top pair, top kicker, you might just call, but still would lean towards raising | ||
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| Re: HE hand analysis please, Angel, 6. Oct 2003 22:02 | ||
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| I'd like to re-visit this post for a question. I had two posters suggest that I re-raise on the flop with a nut flush draw when instead I just called the two bets to me. I didn't think that was correct at the time and after thinking about it - I still don't. That of course doesn't mean I'm right. The reason I post is to learn something (and perhaps give something back along the way) but I would like someone to quantify why a re-raise is correct on the flop (please) as well as explain why I didn't. If I am wrong I would like to understand why - or else I'm just following rules and can't adjust to varying textures. I didn't re-raise on the flop because I still have a drawing hand AND two people to act behind me (as well as the original bettor who may 3 bet it) As I am facing a possible 3 and even 4 bet situation anyway - the last thing I wanted to do was to make the price too high for the blinds to call. If the pot becoming so big will encourage them to find a reason to call with a gut shot and a backdoor flush draw then by all means let me set a price they can afford. I want them in on my drawing hands particularly because if I hit my hand it will be the nuts so there are no reverse implied odds to letting them in on the flop (except for protecting that ace - which 5-handed didn't occur to me as it had slim to no chance of being good if it hit against a full field). It was also suggested that I re-raise to cause the raiser to define his hand. I agree, re-raising may very well do that - but just calling gives the original bettor the same opportunity while increasing my overlay. I gain information both ways. | ||
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| Re: HE hand analysis please, Schuster, 6. Oct 2003 22:16 | ||
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| > It was also suggested that I re-raise to cause the raiser to define his hand. I agree, > re-raising may very well do that - but just calling gives the original bettor the same > opportunity while increasing my overlay. I gain information both ways. I think this is the most powerful statement of your post, and I do agree with the rest of it. With players left to act behind you, reraising will not produce a desirable result almost every time. As far as the raise on the turn goes, I think it is worthwhile, and the fact that you had posted a makeup blind makes it especially attractive. On the flop, you had odds to chase a gutshot, and when the board reads 4-5-7-8, that has to make the MP player wonder. Even if the chances of you buying the pot with the turn raise are rather slim, it doesn't need to work very often to be profitable. And if it doesn't work you still have a lot of outs. I like your thinking throughout the hand and I think you played it well, even though I'm not exactly a 20/40 player, so take my opinion for what it's worth. Good luck in the future Angel! Lee | ||
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| Re: HE hand analysis please, Angel, 6. Oct 2003 22:50 | ||
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| on 6. Oct 2003 22:16 Schuster wrote: I like your thinking throughout the hand and I > think you played it well, even though I'm not exactly a 20/40 player, so take my opinion for what > it's worth. I appreciate your input Lee - thanks. But I did want to address what you said above. I have absolutely no problem learning from anyone and like to think I have no ego associated with the size of the game you or I play. I played some $20/$40 tonight and then when the quality of the game turned - I picked up, looked around and found what appeared to be the best game in the house and sat down. It happened to be a $1/$2 game. I am extremely proud of the fact that I bring my best game to the table every time - every limit. My goal is to master poker and I figure if I don't treat the 50 cent chips like I do the $20 chips then it's about the money - not poker. Thanks again for your feedback. | ||
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| Re: HE hand analysis please, shorn, 7. Oct 2003 13:49 | ||
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| Let me first say that I like the way that you played tha hand. With a likely 12 outs on the river, I think your best play is to allow others to continue to draw to smaller flushes or two pair because when you hit your equity is higher. I don't agree with 3-betting the flop as at that point you certainly don't want to chase anyone away. Raising the turn potentially has the advantage of getting out an AK or AQ which you would like, but I don't like to do that into the pre-flop raiser because effectively I have notthing at this point. What happens if he three bets and then the MP player caps (slowplaying a set)? Now I have put in 3 more bets that I didn't need to, effectivley lowering my "win equity" by paying a higher price. I would have to know these players quite well to make that play. And at the 20/40 level, there may even be a few players who will recognize this semi-bluff raise and 3-bet with AK to try and squeeze of the MP player. | ||
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| I misread the flop, Barry T, 5. Oct 2003 18:25 | ||
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| Hi. I only saw one diamond on the flop. Sorry about that. In the case where you have the nut flush draw on the flop, you shouild (ast least) call, of course. You might think about protecting your ace on the flop and three-betting. That's what I get for trying to answer posts before breakfast! BarryT | ||
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| Re: HE hand analysis please, shutupndeal, 8. Oct 2003 18:36 | ||
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| You definately have the odds at that point to make the bet, HOWEVER I dont like the bet either. Reason? It cost you bets, quie a few of them also. Granted the 5 was a killer card but if you hit that flush and had let him bet and just called on the turn, you still have 3 other players who you make get the check raise out of on the river being they were in so deep. Also, while its not wrong so btw the pro cant say its wrong just that he didnt like it as I said or I wouldnt have done it anyway, also......... know what, this one is a pet theory of mine and I dont see many people at all that have ever even spoken about this so not to be an donkey here but please lets just forget my "also" Ok? Bottom line is this. You won the pot! Happy, Happy Joy-Joy Ok? Was the pro down for the night, cuz really I cant see him making that big a deal over it and maybe he wasnt even thinking about the extra bets, some guys just kinda shoot their mouths off and arent as good as you think they are sometimes. Especially when you start clmbing the steps if you will and all of a sudden your on their level and then they look for something to tear you down about! You are all "up" and elated, prob talking fast after the hand and old Mr Miserable just had to make his remark. : ) I am serious too! It sounds like your game is really picking up Angel! I dont know of you seen me in another post but I am getting ready to move back out that way after quite a while and Im not young but Im not dead either (41) and it would be nice if I could meet you just to talk and have you give me the lowdown on some of the better places that people are playing middle games, where the better fishy lower limit games are and if you happen to know, where the NY crowd is hanging out these days I would really appreciate it! We have a while b4 I get there though like about I dunno maybe 4 months at the most. Where was this game by the way, Bellagio? Have a good one! | ||
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