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Server Time: 12/1/2008 1:06:23 PM PACIFIC |
 Betting the river with big overpairs?, mkpoker, 4. Oct 2003 18:32 | ||
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| A big leak in my games remains doubt about when to bet the river. I know the maxim of betting when I think a weaker hand will call, but it's often difficult to predict your opponents behavior...especially when YOU wouldn't call with a weaker hand, but THEY just might. On balance, I think I'm leaving bets on the table at the river. These are two hands I played at UB today (5/10 HE), in which I held big overpairs. In both cases, I checked the river. In retrospect, I think I checking was the right play on hand 1 but the wrong play on hand 2. I'd very much welcome others' thoughts. HAND #1 From the button, I'm dealt AcAd. 3 limpers to me. I raise, BB and all limpers call. Flop comes 6hTc4c. 3 checks to cutoff, who bets. I raise. Only cutoff calls. Turn is 2h. He checks, I bet, he calls. River is 2c, completing the flush draw. [Board is 6hTc4c2h2c.] He checks. I have the Ac, so at best he could have been drawing to a K-high flush. I wonder how likely this is, because it's doubful he would have stayed in with a hand like KQc or KJc. He can't have KTc because the Tc is on the board. Maybe K6c? He checks. Fearing a flush. I check, also. He turns over KsTd, top pair, excellent kicker--no flush draw. My aces are good. HAND #2 From MP, I'm dealt KhKs. UTG limps (a very loose, bad player), 1 fold to me. I raise. LP calls. BB calls, UTG re-raises. I cap. All call (4 players to see flop). Flop is Jh7s2h--a good flop for me, though I don't like the heart draw. BB checks, UTG bets, I raise, LP calls. BB folds. Turn is Th, completing a flush draw (and giving me the 2nd nut flush draw). UTG checks, I bet, all call. River is Td [Board of JhTs2hThTd]. UTG checks. I check. LP checks. EP turns over AcKd (nothing but an overcard), LP has QQ. My KK holds up. In retrospect, I think I should have bet the river here. If anyone held the flush, they surely would have raised the turn. The river T could only have helped a player if he held a hand like AT and made trips with the running tens at the end. But it's highly unlikely anyone would have stayed in with such a hand after all that pre-flop and post-flop betting. In retrospect, I think the QQ would have called for sure, and the AK was such a bad player, he might have called also. So, UPFers, lemme have it. I'd especially like thoughts on my river play, but would welcome any other comments. | ||
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| Re: Betting the river with big overpairs?, Barry T, 4. Oct 2003 21:24 | ||
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| Hi. I say this a lot. Bet The River. In my seminar: Ten Common and Costly Hold'em Errors, failure to bet the river is TWO of them You cannot make a bet an hour if you do not capitalize on your good hands, and collect those extra calls (or get those crying folds which makes everyoe at the table want to call you next time). Everyone I have had a chance to talk to about this has bought in. They all are grateful, as they can actually count the profit time after time. You do not have to win every time (an d you won't). You will win a lot, especially in heads-up situations. Bet The River. Luckily for me, almost everyone disagrees with me. That's OK. BarryT For the record, I bet Hand 1 and I bet Hand 2. | ||
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| Re: Betting the river with big overpairs?, PairTheBoard, 4. Oct 2003 22:45 | ||
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| Thanks Barry. I used to be very aggresive with value bets on the river until I ran into a streak of what seemed like about 20 check raises in a row. I then scaled way back on such bets until I noticed how often I was missing a bet. I'm now seeking the proper balance. When would you refrain from betting the river when you've been in the lead through the hand? | ||
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| Re: Betting the river with big overpairs?, Barry T, 4. Oct 2003 22:57 | ||
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| Hi. Pretty general question, but: 1 - In a multi-way pot, when a major scare card hits. 2 - When I have been betting into two people hoping they both have draws and I have some mediocre hand. (betting 99 into KQ752) 3 - When my opponent is a frequent bluffer. 4 - When my opponent is extremely tricky. BarryT | ||
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| Re: Betting the river with big overpairs?, Piers Majestyk, 4. Oct 2003 23:17 | ||
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| Just as a second opinion I agree with Barry 100% on the betting river in your case. If the person hit the flush in the first hand he is not going to check to you for fear you will check behind him and he will lose a bet and least I am not going to check my flush because I know you have a hand and will pay me off. On the second hand if noone raises you when the flush gets there on the turn then the turn river 10's are nothing to be afraid of in my opinion, at least they woulded stop me from firing in another bet. I see a tremedous number of people checking on the river with hands such as yours and it only makes me very happy that they are not punishing me for that extra big bet as often as they should. And as Barry said if you plan on making money at whatever limit you playing you can't be afraid to value bet on the river. Good luck. | ||
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| Re: Betting the river with big overpairs?, 4 POKER, 5. Oct 2003 00:27 | ||
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| `Hey mk, You've already received some really good advice from Barry and the other posters. I want to add something of my own that may be more on the line of a psychological reasoning for not betting the river with your strong hands. This probably doesn't apply to you but I'll tell you about it anyway. A buddy of mine (who enjoys poker as more of a recreational type of player, but has a pretty decent concept of the game).... has one major leak/weakness. We've discussed it numerous of times, and and for some reason, he just won't (or should I say, "can't") make the adjustment. It's betting the river with big hands, but not "Nut hands". (now mind you...I'm referring to hands that win a good % of the time against one or two opponents with boards that are not typically dangerous looking boards). I'll give you just one example, but this example hand play, happens over and over, and over. He's dealt AK in a 'live' hold-em game and he raises it coming in. (so far so good). He gets one caller from the BB. The flop is K-2-7. The BB checks and he bets. The BB calls. The turn is an offsuit 4. The BB checks it again, and my buddy bets it again. The BB calls. The river brings another 4, for a board read of K-2-7-4-4. The BB checks it again, and so does he. He wins the pot with TP, TK. The BB shows down pocket 5's. I was watching him, but he didn't know I was, because I was standing behind him when he was playing this hand from beginning to end. We talked about the hand a little bit later and ONCE AGAIN......we had the same ol' conversation. "Why didn't you bet the river"? He proceeded to tell me the same thing he always tells me, which is............. "I don't like being checkraised". "What if he ckeck-raises me.....then I'll feel awful". I continue to give him some reasons on why he should be betting (especially for the fact that this was a heads up hand), and the reasons behind my thinking. He says, "I know, I know". (but he doesn't 'apply' it). He's so caught up in his fear of being check-raised, (and we all know how awful that feeling is when we're not holding the nuts!)........that he is now (because of that fuzzy thinking, which is all mental, but not correct).....missing out on SO many bets on his really "good" hands, that when he loses a hand.......he's not able to balance it out. (does that make sense?). He's not winning the maximum on his winning hands, and he's losing more than the minimum on his losing hands, because he will pay off players with second best hands.....middle pairs....and stuff like that. The ironic part of it though?.....my buddy is a GREAT bluffer!! *That's* the part I don't get. He's willing to bluff, but he's not willing to bet a "real hand". You MUST be able to "bet the river" in order to win the absolute maximum that you possibly can on your winning hands .....or you're not going to be a real winning player; or not nearly as much as you could be winning, and especially if you're not going to minimize your losses, on your losing hands. Those extra bets that a player misses throughout the course of a hand, and throughout the course of all your sessions...(and it usually happens mostly on the river betting round), will subtract away SO much from your potential earn. You have to be able to put those important bets in, even if it means losing the pot once in awhile; and even if it means getting check-raised....or just plain beaten by a player who checks and then calls your bet! If the player has you beat on the river now.....it *doesn't* matter if you didn't put in that extra bet because you feared a check-raise play. If you're beat....you're beat. "Put the bet in on the river" because it's not going to change the outcome....anyway. "Those are NOT saved bets, they are important bets that need to made when the situation warrants it, and let the chips fall where they may". BET THE RIVER! 4P- | ||
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| Re: Betting the river with big overpairs?, Mark Gregorich, 5. Oct 2003 17:56 | ||
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| I agree with the other comments in this thread that betting the river in both cases is correct. Even though you will lose a bet sometimes, occasionally some really nice things happen, like getting called in a couple spots by worse hands, or by getting someone to lay down the winner (pretty unusual, but it will happen occasionally - you don't know how all your opponents are perceiving the situation). One thing to add about the first example: I think its fairly unlikely that the cutoff would lead into you on the flop with a flush draw. Its a fairly safe assumption that you will be aggressive on the flop due to your status as the preflop raiser, so the last thing he wants to do is lead a flush draw right into you, giving you the opportunity to raise everyone else out (thus diminishing the value of his draw). Most players are aware of this, and will tend to check the draw when the next player is likely to bet/raise. Therefore, in your spot I would put this player on a hand like top pair, which also happens to be a hand he'll pay off the river with. Mark | ||
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| Re: Betting the river with big overpairs?, shorn, 7. Oct 2003 13:27 | ||
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| I bet in both cases here. The first hand is a no brainer. The second hand is a little less palatable, but the only hand that I can figure that has me beat with that board is someone holding TT. So, the likelihood of that is so small you have to bet. A good rule of thumb that I use is to always bet the river if someone still needs two cards to beat me. When it is only one card (Like 4 to a str8 or 4 to a flush on the board), then it is better to check, especially into multiple opponents (the second hand that you post being an exception to this). Also, if the flop came with only 1 draw (say Q73 with two of a suit), and there are lots of callers all the way, then the flush card on the river might be a time to check. But, as Piers points out, most players at lower limits will not check the flush in the river for fear of losing a bet or two. Hell, they paid to get there didn't they? No way they will let you check. The last thing I do when a card comes on the river that I don't like is quickly replay the hand and ask myself "Did that card really hurt me?" Most of the time, the answer is no. | ||
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