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Server Time: 12/1/2008 12:29:14 PM PACIFIC |
 Inside St8 calling a raise?, Michael C, 3. Oct 2003 20:47 | ||
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| Hi - lets say that the preflop was raised and 7 players saw the flop (42-5=37). The flop comes down where you have an inside st8 draw (say you need a Ten). The board is a rainbow and you need the St8 to win for sure. No flush and no pair on the board. The flop is raised and 3 players call the raise before you get to act (button) and you need to call 2 small bets cold? Question? is it right to make the call. It cost you $6 and the pot has something like 3+37+18=58 and if you call 64. With implied odds on the River you should get about the right odds. There are 2 cards to come and that is something like 6-1 against you making you st8 by the River? (4/47+4/46) Reason I ask is I was in this position and I called the flop raise. Then there was a raise on the Turn and got 3 callers and me. I made my st8 and won. I had to pay 12 to see the River and I wonder if this was a good play. The pot had about 100 when I stacked the chips. The flop call was probably okay but the raise was too much to pay for the pot when I had one card to come and 11-1 against. 6 would have been okay since the pot was laying better than 11-1. I had KQo and the board was AJ7, Turn blank and the River T. Thanks | ||
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| Re: Inside St8 calling a raise?, mkpoker, 3. Oct 2003 21:48 | ||
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| Great result for you, but not a call I would have made. Here's why: 1. Your pot odds calculation didn't factor in the fact that you'd need to bet more after the turn, if 4th street wasn't your card (the T). And given the way this hand had progressed, it's a safe bet you would have needed to call at least 2 BB on the turn to see the river. Adding 2-3 BB to the 2 SB you called on flop clearly denies you the right pot odds. If your intent was to see the turn only and fold if you didn't improve, you had the wrong odds (pot was laying odds of about 9.5:1 and your odds of hitting on the turn were about 11:1). Your post said that you figured you had odds of about 6:1 to hit your inside st8. That's right *only if you stay to the river.* And had you stayed (and the turn card not hit), you certainly would have paid dearly to see the river. 2. You're overstating the implied odds value. Implied odds pay off when you hit a well camoflaged hand. Like if the board were A359K and you held 24. You'd be well positioned to collect on that one. But with a board of AJTxx, KQ isn't such a remote possibility. If I held AK, for example, and out of nowhere you started raising when the T showed up on the river, I'd just call fearing KQ. You're unlikely to score a huge payday with a crazy raising frenzy at the end in this situation. Just my .02 and worth about as much, I'm sure. You did hit your hand and that's great. Stacking up those chips sure is fun! | ||
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| Re: Inside St8 calling a raise?, Michael C, 4. Oct 2003 09:15 | ||
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| Thanks MK for the review. I had kind of figured that I was making a bad call and was lucky that it hit. I will add this as a leak in my play and the next time this comes up maybe I will play it better. I am going to re-read Sklansky on odds, and implied odds. Being relatively new takes some table time to calculate the odds correctly. This, probably just after hand selection, is one of the important areas. | ||
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| Re: Inside St8 calling a raise?, Blue Sky, 6. Oct 2003 16:47 | ||
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| Michael, One of the best things you can do for your game and the speed of calculating odds is to sit down with pen, paper, and a calculator some night and run through the math for a wide assortment of hands and memeorize them. An Example list will include: Four to a flush Odds of 4th st , Odds of 5th st. Open ended straight Odds of 4th st, Odds of 5th st Two pair making a boat Odds of second pair Flopped set Odds of making a boat once you have memorized these numbers you will eleiminate having to run through the math at the table with a table full of eyes on you and a dealer rushing you to check, call, or fold. | ||
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| Re: Inside St8 calling a raise?, Michael C, 6. Oct 2003 17:49 | ||
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| Thanks - I can also use Sklansky's probability table in his advanced book, but doing the math yourself helps with memorization. | ||
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| Re: Inside St8 calling a raise?, Michael C, 6. Oct 2003 17:51 | ||
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| oops | ||
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