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Server Time: 9/5/2008 4:57:46 PM PACIFIC |
 calling with AXs when betting capped, Don Hayes, 2. Oct 2003 08:22 | ||
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| I was in a game last night where the preflop betting was often capped with 6 or more in before the flop. In late postion I was calling the bets with AXs figuring the pot was going to be huge if I hit the nut flush or nut flush draw on the flop and if I didn't I folded on the flop. I know the pot odds at the time were not enought but I thought the implied odds were good enough for a call. Your thoughts please. | ||
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| Re: calling with AXs when betting capped, Eman, 2. Oct 2003 08:36 | ||
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| if the betting is capped and there are six players and you hold AXs, I would call everytime. The implied odds are there to make the call. | ||
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| Re: calling with AXs when betting capped, Lou Krieger, 2. Oct 2003 08:57 | ||
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| on 2. Oct 2003 08:22 Don Hayes wrote: "I was in a game last night where the preflop betting was often capped with 6 or more in before the flop. In late position I was calling the bets with AXs figuring the pot was going to be huge if I hit the nut flush or nut flush draw on the flop and if I didn't I folded on the flop. I know the pot odds at the time were not enough but I thought the implied odds were good enough for a call. " I don't think so. You'll flop a four flush about ten percent of the time and actually make your flush about 35 percent of the time you flop a four flush, so you'll make a flush with A-xs only about three percent of the time. The problem with playing A-xs into a capped pot is multifold: First, someone else is likely to be in there with an ace which both diminishes your chances of catching one, and increasing the chances that you are in serious kicker trouble if you do. Second, you're really hoping the flop hits you twice, giving you two pair, or a big draw for a flush. Now, when you have a big flush draw, it's nice to have a big kicker instead of a small one. That way, if you hit your ace or your kicker you stand a good chance of winning the pot that way as well as with a flush. I really don't think A-xs gives you anywhere near the implied odds to play into a capped pot. Best save your money and wait for the more reasonably priced opportunities that are sure to come. Lou Krieger Raise your game with Lou Krieger author of "Poker For Dummies" at Royal Vegas Poker http://www.royalvegaspoker.com | ||
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| Re: calling with AXs when betting capped, mkpoker, 2. Oct 2003 09:18 | ||
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| I would not call. Normally, with Axs, you're hoping to flop a flush draw, aces up, trips, or some unlikely draw. But if the betting has been capped (with 6 people, no less!), you couldn't be confident if you flopped aces up or even top 3kind. (For example, if you hold A5s and flop comes AQ5 rainbow...you'd have to be petrified that one of the raisers held AQ or AA. If the flop came AA9, you've got to figure someone else holds the same set with a better kicker). With so much aggression, you're really going ONLY for the flush, which is a 3% (33:1 shot). Granted, your implied odds are good...but can you expect to collect 33 bets if you hit? Probably not. IMPORTANT NOTE: I'm assuming that you're faced with the prospect of cold calling 4-bets (i.e. the betting is capped before the action reaches you). If you're faced with only a single raise, with 6 callers, I'd probably call. Then, if it were raised and re-raised after you called--with the callers staying in--I can see making the 2nd call. But if it comes 4-bets cold to you, I'd get out. | ||
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| Re: calling with AXs when betting capped, Don Hayes, 2. Oct 2003 10:45 | ||
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| I wouldn't call three or four bets cold what was happening is it would be raised once I would call then there would be another round of raising capping the pot. I did hit twice for about 25 big bets each time. When would you bail out in this situation? | ||
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| Re: calling with AXs when betting capped, Schuster, 2. Oct 2003 11:01 | ||
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| There would have to be some strange preflop action for me to get involved in a capped pot with AXs. This is a hand I muck to a raise nearly all the time. I think you are a little mixed up on implied odds also. It's basically you spend a little now to win a lot more later if you connect. The problem is that you're spending a lot now, so you have to win even more later to make it a +EV play. Unfortunately, people aren't going to sit and pay you off with junk if you get there. Look at it this way. Say you just pay 1 bet to see the flop. If you can expect about the same return after the flop (minus a few bets when you only see the flop for 1 bet because people will chase less) in both situations, then you are spending 4 times as much to get the same post-flop return in the capped betting over the single bet. Hope this makes sense! Good luck in the future Don. Lee | ||
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| Re: calling with AXs when betting capped, shorn, 2. Oct 2003 11:29 | ||
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| This is really the heart of why you shouldn't do this. By calling 4 bets (and likely more on the flop and turn if you don't hit), you are investing too much of your potential win to make it profitable. As others have pointed out that the chance of hitting ONLY the flush is roughly 4% total (because your other outs save AXX are probably not good), that means that you need to win 25 bets for EVERY bet you put in to make it worthwhile. Even the loosest games rarely offer these typs of payoffs. | ||
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| Re: calling with AXs when betting capped, betelgeese, 2. Oct 2003 20:49 | ||
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| could eman elaborate on why he would always call to capped betting. implied odds are one thing, calling everytime with ace any seems extreme. on 2. Oct 2003 11:29 shorn wrote: > This is really the heart of why you shouldn't do this. By calling 4 bets (and likely more on the flop > and turn if you don't hit), you are investing too much of your potential win to make it profitable. As > others have pointed out that the chance of hitting ONLY the flush is roughly 4% total (because your other > outs save AXX are probably not good), that means that you need to win 25 bets for EVERY bet you put in to > make it worthwhile. Even the loosest games rarely offer these typs of payoffs. | ||
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| Re: calling with AXs when betting capped, mkpoker, 2. Oct 2003 11:23 | ||
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| It suddenly gets to be a much closer call. If I were in LP AND there were multiple callers AND I had no reason to expect the blinds to raise, I would probably call a single raise with Axs...but I don't think it's a bad play to muck. If, after my call, the blinds surprised me be re-raising, and then the pot were reraised again (capped) before it got back to me, I'd probably fold. | ||
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| Re: calling with AXs when betting capped, Andrew Wells, 2. Oct 2003 19:54 | ||
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| Not to mention that you will occasionally make your flush on the turn when someone else fills up on the river. Actually with so many bets in the pot before the flop, you will end up looking to complete your flush when there's already a pair on the board with the flop. In hands with 20+ bets in the pot preflop you are more likely to have your flush cracked. This is because anyone with a piece of the flop has pot odds to stay for a runner-runner full house, and there are probably some pocket pairs that can continue after missing the flop completely. Note that you shouldn't call four bets cold from the button with a hand like A7s if you're sure there's going to be seven or more opponents, but if you speculatively call a single raise cold and one of the blinds reraises causing the action to then get capped, you can in that case call two bets cold again, but mucking is also an option. I don't mean this as a reply to Lou's advice directly, just amending this branch of the thread. | ||
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| Re: calling with AXs when betting capped, Barry T, 4. Oct 2003 12:14 | ||
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| Hi. A lot depends on how your opponents play post flop. IF...the betting capped at least seven ways, and IF...almost all opponents stay in on the flop regardless of the number of raises, and IF...you know how to get away from your hand when you not flop a flush draw but catch a piece of the flop (say you have Ad5d and the flop is Kd 6h 4c or Jd 5s2 s and you start dreaming about backdoor straights and flushes incorrectly), and IF...your opponents are the kind where several go to the river, and IF...you are comfortable the huge volatiility that comes when you cap the betting on the flop with your flush draw and then miss, THEN ...yes it Ax-suited is playable. Otherwise, no. BarryT | ||
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