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Server Time: 8/21/2008 9:27:40 PM PACIFIC |
 Odds/statistical likelihood, Bill, 2. Oct 2003 04:27 | ||
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| It seems like I have been hearing an increasing number of discussions (and arguments) about odds and statistics lately. Although I of course repose infinite trust in Mike's tables as they appear here and in Super System, I wonder if someone can help me clarify something (an Ivy League education in is not necessarily helpful in this arena). Is the following proposition correct: In Texas Hold 'Em, if I have pocket A-K, before the flop the likelihood of a Q appearing is calculated by considering that there are three chances of a 4/50 occurrence; if no Q appears in the flop, then there is one chance of a 4/47 occurrence; and if no Q has yet fallen, then there is one chance of a 4/46 occurrence on the river. If the foregoing is correct, does not the same analysis apply no matter what value card is being discussed, irrespective of whether an equivalent value card is held (and therefore seen) by the player? Thanks for any discussion on this. Bill | ||
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| Re: Odds/statistical likelihood, Lou Krieger, 2. Oct 2003 09:23 | ||
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| If you have A-K, or any two cards other than a Queen, and you're interested in the odds of a Queen falling on the flop, here's how to figure it: There are 50 unknown cards at that point, so we're gonna figure the odds of NOT catching a queen on the flop, subtract that answer from the total number of possibilities, and you'll have your answer. With the first flop card, 46/50 of the time you will not see a queen. If the first card is not a queen, then the odds of the second card not being a queen is 45/49, and with the third card the odds against a queen are 44/48. So you will not see a queen 46/50 x 45/49 x 44/48 times, which is equal to 91080 / 117600 when you multiply all the numerators together and do the same thing for the denominators. That means you won't flop a queen 77.4 percent of the time, and if subtract that number from one, you'll be left with 22.6 percent of the time that you will catch a queen on the flop. (You can also subtract 91080 from 117600, and you'll be left with the fraction 26520 / 117600, which is the percentage of the time you'll flop a queen -- or any other specific card other than those matching the two in your hand. If you want to express that in odds, the odds against flopping a queen when you have A-K in your hand are 3.42-to-1. Lou Krieger Raise your game with Lou Krieger, author of "Poker For Dummies" at Royal Vegas Poker http://www.royalvegaspoker.com/lou | ||
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