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Server Time: 9/7/2008 7:50:04 PM PACIFIC |
 Outs with 2 cards to come, Antonio K, 30. Sep 2003 20:06 | ||
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| It's been a while since my probability classes in college, a little help would be appreciated ... With one card to come, calculating odds is pretty straight forward, however, I am stuck if there are 2 or 3 to come. I dont want to go back to sets and binomials. Can some one throw in a formula ? Thank you | ||
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| Re: Outs with 2 cards to come, Angel, 30. Sep 2003 20:23 | ||
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| Sure...convert to decimal and multiply. ie: 25% chance on turn + 25% chance on river = .25*.25=.0625 or 6.25% or 15:1 against | ||
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| Re: Outs with 2 cards to come, Antonio K, 30. Sep 2003 22:09 | ||
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| on 30. Sep 2003 20:23 Angel wrote: > Sure...convert to decimal and multiply. ie: 25% chance on turn + 25% chance on river > = .25*.25=.0625 or 6.25% or 15:1 against I don't think it's that easy, ie: odds against making three of a kind with two cards to come on hold'em (to make by the river), 13.9 to 1 against .. in this case considering your example: 2/47 + 2/ 47 = .085 or 10.76 to 1... | ||
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| Re: Outs with 2 cards to come, Angel, 1. Oct 2003 02:43 | ||
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| on 30. Sep 2003 22:09 Antonio K wrote: > > I don't think it's that easy, ie: odds against making three of a kind with two cards to > come on hold'em (to make by the river), 13.9 to 1 against .. in this case considering > your example: 2/47 + 2/ 47 = .085 or 10.76 to 1... Wow. I'm both sorry and embarressed. I did this recently for someone else too - on this very forum a month ago....must be getting senile. Ok - here goes, this is the 'take it to the bank' version. First of all we both had an error. Your example would be 2/47 and then 2/46. The odds of making a two outer with two cards to come is 8.4% or 11:1. You will make one and only one of those 2 outers 8.3% of the time and make both approximately 0.1% of the time. There are a number of ways to arrive at the answer you are looking for but for an example we need to pick a hand - say a flush draw - 9 outs twice. The easiest method to use is to determine the odds of not making your flush and subtract from 100%. You're going to miss improving your 4-flush on the turn 38 out of 47 times and on the river - 37 out of 46 times or 38/47*37/46 which is 1406/2162 or 0.65032377428307123 etc :) In other words - you'll miss your flush approximately 65% of the time - therefore you shall make it 35% of the time. A straight would be: 100% - {39/47*38/46} Hope this helps - | ||
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| Re: Outs with 2 cards to come, Antonio K, 1. Oct 2003 07:33 | ||
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| Angel, It's close, but I think we're still missing something, if you look at the odds page in this website the odds of making trips by the river (just trips, not anything better) are 15 to 1, or like 6% ... are we missing something ? thanks again | ||
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| Re: Outs with 2 cards to come, Bart Mann, 1. Oct 2003 14:13 | ||
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| I only read these posts once, but is it possible that the two of you are talking about two different situations? If the flop is already out and you only need one card to make your hand, you ADD the probabilities of the Turn and River together. If you need both of the remaining cards to make your hand, you MULTIPLY the odds at the Turn and the River. I thought I saw references to both situations--but maybe not. Just trying to help. - Bart - | ||
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| Re: Outs with 2 cards to come, GambleAB, 1. Oct 2003 14:37 | ||
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| The original question was somewhat vague, so I'll give an example and show the formulas (I don't think either previous poster was exactly correct with this). Lets say you have a pocket pair, and didn't hit after the flop. If you want to know the odds of you getting the third card on the turn or river, you find the odds of that NOT happening and invert it. So the odds of it NOT happening are 45/47 times 44/46, or around 91.5% of the time, so the odds of you hitting the trip is about 8.5%. | ||
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| Re: Outs with 2 cards to come, Antonio K, 1. Oct 2003 15:44 | ||
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| That is the most obvious answer, however, check any odds table, including the one in this website, which says, you hold 2 aces, flop is Kc,Qh,Js... odds of making trips by the river are: 15.9 to 1, which is 5.9 % and not 8.4%. Wilson Turbo Hold'em has it as 13.9 to 1 whichis like 6.7 percent... thanks for all the responses ... A | ||
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| Re: Outs with 2 cards to come, pt_Gatsby, 1. Oct 2003 16:40 | ||
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| I believe the odds remove the potential for 'anything' better, ie: 4 of a kind, the one that does make trips + one that pairs the board. It calculates the probability of just having trips as your best hand. (I think) But for generic purposes, 2/47 + 2/46 is correct for determining if you will get your card. | ||
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| Re: Outs with 2 cards to come, Antonio K, 2. Oct 2003 09:57 | ||
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| Well, in that case if you counted four of a kind, the odds of improving would be better because you would be adding another occurrence... on 1. Oct 2003 16:40 pt_Gatsby wrote: > > I believe the odds remove the potential for 'anything' better, ie: 4 of a kind, the one that does make > trips + one that pairs the board. > > It calculates the probability of just having trips as your best hand. (I think) > > But for generic purposes, 2/47 + 2/46 is correct for determining if you will get your card. > > | ||
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| Re: Outs with 2 cards to come, pt_Gatsby, 2. Oct 2003 12:37 | ||
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| I meant that it calculates the absolute chance of having *only* three of a kind. In other words: It fully enumerates all potential hands and says that you will recieve three of a kind (and only three of a kind) exactly (x) times. I think it works on [getting 3rd card to a pair]-[four of a kind]-[flushes]-[full houses]... Making it less likely to have only 3 of a kind. | ||
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