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Server Time: 11/20/2009 9:12:12 PM PACIFIC |
 Hand Analysis, Please - Need a Tiebreaker, Bart Mann, 29. Sep 2003 12:48 | ||
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| Good Afternoon: This past weekend I played in a live NLHE tournament with a friend of mine. I was knocked out a bit earlier than he was, so I got to see the hand that knocked him out. 24 hours later he’s still kicking himself for the way he played it—while I, on the other hand, think he did the right thing. I’m looking for an outside opinion on this. Here’s the scenario: NLHE tournament, blinds are 200/400 (quickly rising to 400/800). My friend is in dead middle position at an 11 player table. He’s either shortest stack or second shortest stack at the table with about 2500 in chips. Everyone in early folds, and the guy to his right makes a bet of 800. My friend looks at his cards, thinks about it for a minute, then goes all in for 2500. The table goes Fold, Fold, Fold to the guy in the small blind (the chip leader). He thinks about it for a minute, then makes a 2500 call. The middle position raiser gets out of the way, so the action is heads up and the cards come over. My friend turns QQ, and the small blind flips over A10 offsuit. The flop comes rag-rag-rag, then BAM—bullet on the turn. River is a rag, and my friend is out of the tournament. My contention is that he made the right move. His chip count was dwindling, and in retrospect he had all of his money in the middle when he was a 70+% preflop favorite. He made the middle position raiser muck his hand, and if it would have been a less aggressive player in the small blind with A10os he probably would have went away—leaving 600 in blinds and 800 in chips for the taking. My friend is kicking himself for not being more “patient,” which to him mean either waiting for a better opportunity to come along, or not playing the Queens as aggressively Thoughts, anyone? - Bart - | ||
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| Re: Hand Analysis, Please - Need a Tiebreaker, KJo, 29. Sep 2003 13:07 | ||
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| Your friend clearly did the right thing, if he was going to wait for a better hand to come along than QQ when he only has enough for 3 BB's (when the limits go up) then he would be going home very shortly. Perfect time for him to double up or get up. I would have gone all in with this hand facing just about any scenario if I were in his seat. Eli | ||
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| Re: Hand Analysis, Please - Need a Tiebreaker, Jav, 29. Sep 2003 13:50 | ||
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| I agree with you. Just calling would invite more people into the hand, and he doesn't have enough chips left to make a smaller raise without being pot committed. So he might as well push all-in and hope to win the pot right there. If he doesn't, then he still has a good shot of winning a showdown against one or two players. And I just can't see laying down Q,Q in that position. | ||
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| Re: Hand Analysis, Please - Need a Tiebreaker, Risky Business, 29. Sep 2003 14:19 | ||
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| King and Javelin - I agree, I probably wouldn't have let it go either, BUT, this hasn't been working for me lately, so I've thought this one through a different perspective. (I'm betting this was the friends p.o.v. too) Conceding that you aren't going to throw away pocket Queens, why not call to induce others to build a pot. Once a flop hits with a King or Ace, you can get out.....or if one doesn't hit, you go all-in. I realize the inherent danger of leaving the door open for someone with junk (the BB for instance) to catch a set of 3's, or hit 2 pair, but if QQ is such a scary hand to promote this much discussion, why not slow down a little with it? Wouldn't you think that A-10 lets go once he misses the flop and you go all-in. Like I said, I'm speaking based on current kicks-in-the-ass, so maybe I need to re-evaluate as well. | ||
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| Re: Hand Analysis, Please - Need a Tiebreaker, Jav, 29. Sep 2003 14:33 | ||
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| That may work out, but I'm very hesitant to get into a 3 way or 4 way pot in NL holdem. Especially when I'm shortstacked. You might have one of the other players hitting one pair on the flop, and then picking up two pair later in the hand. While there is risk in both ways, I think I'm more afraid of the larger field. If I had better position or was in one of the blinds I might just call, but I think that's dangerous in middle position. I hate playing a Q,Q hand when I don't have a feel for where the other players are at. In my opinion I think the chances of winning the hand pre-flop outweigh the disadvantage of not being able to force someone out of the hand on the flop. If you call for 800, and the BB calls, you're looking at 2600 in the pot. I'm not sure that betting your last 1600 or so is that strong of a move. Q,Q is always a dangerous hand to play. It's definately helped me win tournaments and also busted me out of them. But I'd rather bust out with a strong all-in bet with a good chance to double up. | ||
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| Re: Hand Analysis, Please - Need a Tiebreaker, Formless, 29. Sep 2003 15:45 | ||
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| No way I want multi-way action with QQ in this spot. And with ~1700 in chips left if you flat-call 800, you do not have enough to make a pot-sized bet on the flop so you are gonna get called down. Your job is to take the pot down. | ||
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| Re: Hand Analysis, Please - Need a Tiebreaker, modestmouse, 29. Sep 2003 21:09 | ||
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| indeed risky biz, i've had these same thoughts in live nl tournies i play in. sometime i just get called down by the loose player or chip leader and lose with preflop fav and wonder how i can stop it. no real good answer. my thoughts were, if i dont go all in here, then i win blinds/small raise but will that carry me to next level as a short stack? so, to me, its better to double up and finish at the final table than to worry about it. there are other tournies.... on 29. Sep 2003 14:19 Risky Business wrote: > Conceding that you aren't going to throw away pocket Queens, why not call to induce > others to build a pot. Once a flop hits with a King or Ace, you can get out.....or if one > doesn't hit, you go all-in. > > I realize the inherent danger of leaving the door open for someone with junk (the BB for > instance) to catch a set of 3's, or hit 2 pair, but if QQ is such a scary hand to promote > this much discussion, why not slow down a little with it? > > Wouldn't you think that A-10 lets go once he misses the flop and you go all-in. > > Like I said, I'm speaking based on current kicks-in-the-ass, so maybe I need to > re-evaluate as well. | ||
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| Re: Hand Analysis, Please - Need a Tiebreaker, noiseboy, 29. Sep 2003 15:25 | ||
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| That play was 100% correct. The guy calling the all-in with AT was out of line and got very lucky. What other hands would your friend be going all in with other than a big pair to which AT is a huge dog? The only other hands are AK, AQ, maybe AJs, all of which have AT badly dominated. That's just the nature of the beast, sometimes you make the right decision, you get all of your money in with way the best of it, and you still lose. | ||
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| Re: Hand Analysis, Please - Need a Tiebreaker, Barry T, 29. Sep 2003 17:00 | ||
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| Hi. In your friends' defense, one would always rather be the first raiser than the second. It is very unlikely he will win without a call once there is a player in. That being said, he needs put the money in here. He still has enough chips to be a little credible (thoughthe chip leader didn't think so) One more trip through the blinds and he will not even have enough chips to make a blind steal. BarryT | ||
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| Re: Hand Analysis, Please - Need a Tiebreaker, MozMan, 29. Sep 2003 18:24 | ||
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| Hey Bart- That was absolutely the right play. At that point (short-stacked, rising blinds) it's time to gamble, and pocket-pairs (especially paint and aces) are good bets. He just got unlucky this time, that's all. That's poker. -Moz "The Queen is dead, boys, and it's so lonely on a limb." | ||
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| Re: Hand Analysis, Please - Need a Tiebreaker, WilliamS, 30. Sep 2003 07:58 | ||
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| I think the all-in bet was the obvious move. I think one of the keys to success when you get short stacked is making a move while you still have enough chips to have an impact if you hit. At that point in the tournament I'm going all in within the next 10 hands regardless of my cards, so if QQ comes along I'm thanking my lucky stars for the opportunity to get my chips in with this holding. I think the worst thing you can do is be overly patient and be "blinded" to death. I realize patience is the key to success, but I think we often take this concept too far and don't give ourselves the 'opportunity' to get back into contention when things haven't gone our way and we're short stacked. At that point, we are put into a position where we HAVE to gamble (to a certain extent) if we have any chance of making it to the money. Will | ||
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