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Server Time: 11/20/2009 10:51:28 PM PACIFIC |
 odds for a straight, brian gordon, 29. Sep 2003 11:40 | ||
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| i am new to hold em and i am trying to learn the game. could someone please tell me how to compute the probabilities for drawing a straight with 2 given hole cards. for example, if i am holding 10/j suited, how do i calculate the odds for drawing a straight on the flop, turn, and river. i find this somewhat confusing. the way i look at it, not counting my hole cards, there are 50 cards to draw from. you can draw a straitht with 10j with qka,9,q,k,89q,7,89. thus, there are 6 cards to draw a straight-7,8,9,q,k,a so the likelihood of drawing any one card is 6/50 or 46.94%. am i on the right track? | ||
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| Re: odds for a straight, Palinya, 29. Sep 2003 12:55 | ||
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| I'm not sure calculating odds for a straight before seeing the flop is even a worth while thing to try and do. Just play value cards here. So much can change with the flop. If you had TJo, you could pair both of them. You could get 2 more J's. You could get A23 rainbow or 2h5h6h (and you don't have a heart) which makes your TJo pretty worthless for the most part. Basically you're not going to get pot odds going for a straight without seeing the flop ever no matter how many people stay in (I don't think - If I'm wrong, I hope one of the more senior players will correct me) I wouldn't even worry about odds on getting a straight or flush unless I flopped 4 of the 5 cards I needed. Or 3 out of 5 if there are other options like you have AcQc and the flop is Kd Kh 6c in which case you have lots of outs are drawing for lots of cards, the nut flush, the nut straight (even though its not open ended), any A-Q I'm not sure how to calculate it but even if I knew, it wouldn't really make a difference to me preflop. | ||
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| Re: odds for a straight, Eman, 29. Sep 2003 13:51 | ||
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| your right. calculating odds preflop with a hand like J10s is a waste of time. Calculated pot odds, implied odds, and odds of you making the hand after the flop is what you should be worried about. the preflop odds of you making the straight almost never warrants a call preflop. its pretty much a trash hand, | ||
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| Re: odds for a straight, Michael C, 30. Sep 2003 19:00 | ||
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| I agree. Super system states odds of being dealt any two cards of adjacent rank offsuit with maximum streach is 46.4 against. (JT-54) . If you hold 6-5 offsuit a straight will flop 1.31% or 75.6 against. Like they said the odds before the flop are not improtant. Its after the flop where the odds are important. All I care about is if I have four parts to an outside straight on the flop I will get a straight by the river about 31% of the time. "Getting the best of it" by Sklansky covers the math. | ||
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| Re: odds for a straight, Reck One, 30. Sep 2003 23:36 | ||
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| You said you are new to hold'em, so I'm going to attempt to teach you pot odds, and then I will show you a shortcut, that is not exact, but is a good way to estimate your percentage of making a hand. First of all, everyone who said calculating J10 before the flop isn't important is right! It's after the flop that you should be worried about. Pre-flop, is based on value (bet or call or raise on the strength of your two cards), but you can and should play more than simply premium hands, to vary your game, and to avoid being so predictable. Now, pot odds, are what determines whether you should call, either a bet, or a raise. For example: The board is: AQ92 rainbow (a rainbow means, different suits, so no flush possibility) You hold: J10 off suit You put your opponent on top pair with no chance to make the straight. You're on the turn with one more card to come, and there is $100 in the pot, and your opponent bets $20, making the pot $120. A King or an 8 will make you a straight. This gives you a total of 8 outs (outs, are the number of cards that will improve your hand). To figure out the probability of you making your hand, you take the number of cards you that you have seen, which is 6, (four from the board and your two pocket cards), and subtract that from 52, (the number of total cards in the deck) which gives you 46. Now, of these 46 remaining cards, 8 will help you, and 38 won't. Now you put this into a ratio by dividing the cards that will help you vs. the one's that won't (8 into 38), and you get 4.75 to 1 This means, you will make your hand roughly once every five attempts. Now compare this to how much you are getting on your money. It costs you $20 to win $120, giving you 6 to 1 on your money. This means if you play this hand and call the $20 bet, five times, you will lose $20 four times for a net loss of $80. But you will win $120 once, for an overall profit of $40, thus making it a profitable play. Pot odds are one of the most basic and fundamental tools that a good poker player needs, learn them, and you will make more money, and cost yourself less. | ||
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| Re: odds for a straight, Michael C, 1. Oct 2003 18:44 | ||
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| Reck one - Very good explanation. It might interest Brian to know that an inside straight is 11-1 against since you have only 4 outs. So the pot needs to offer you 11 times your bet. Some low limit hands have been raised so much that there is more than $66 in the pot when you need to bet or call $6 when you hold J9 and need a Ten for a straight. Lee Jones Winning Low Limit Holdem is a good book. | ||
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| Re: odds for a straight, kennycatkiller, 12. Oct 2003 21:36 | ||
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| Get Brunson's book, Super System. In one of the appendices, Mike Caro computed the odds of all kinds of stuff. Even though the book is outdated (for example, they did not even play Omaha in 1978), but the 7 Stud and the Hold Em (Limit and No-Limit) plus "Texas Dolly's" life story are well worth the price. Your specific question of flopping a straight is 101 to 1. Of course, you could flop two to your possible straight (15.6 to 1) and have two more shots to get the fifth and completing card. Kennycatkiller | ||
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