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Server Time: 10/11/2008 6:05:40 AM PACIFIC |
 Tournament hand - what would you do?, Schuster, 26. Sep 2003 19:41 | ||
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| Just to make sure I didn't goof... It's a 10+1 entry 400 person tournament on UB. The blinds are 75/150 and I have just over 1300 in chips. The average is about 2800, with 125 people left, and the top 50 get the money. A player UTG + 4 (first 4 players have folded) moves all in for 1650. It's folded to me in the big blind and I have AKs. Calling would put me all in. What would you do? Lee | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, MozMan, 26. Sep 2003 19:47 | ||
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| This one can go either way. I probably call this bet about 60% or 70% of the time. When you think about it, you are a slight dog to any pocket pair, but the only pocket pair that should REALLY scare you would be AA. Any other and you have a pretty good chance to out-draw. -Moz "You can see your reflection in the luminescent dash." | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, mkpoker, 26. Sep 2003 19:53 | ||
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| That's a killer. You're getting short stacked...but you're not in desperate straits yet. Chances are you're looking at a coin flip hand, though it's possible you're beat with AA or a heavy underdog to KK. There's a slimmer chance he's on AQ or AJ and you dominate his position. I'd probably call. But it's worth noting that this is almost EXACTLY the same position that got me busted out of the UPF tourney. I called an all-in bet with AKs and my opponent turned over KK. The flop was A9K...ugh. So my opinion ain't worth much! --matt | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, chasepoker, 26. Sep 2003 20:15 | ||
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| Depending on the game, depends on what i would do. If the game was tight then i fold for 2 reasons 1) the raiser probably has a good hand ( obviously ! ) 2) You will have more of a chance to get yourself some chips by being aggressive and stealing some chips and winning pots without showdowns, which i think is the most important thing in tournament poker. If however the game was loose then you can start to think about calling, this is because 1) the raiser probably does not have a good hand and they might have made this move with AQ.AJ ( we have all seen it ! ) 2) You are less likely to to be able ' steal your way out of trouble ' and so might have to take your shot here However having said all that i would seriously consider folding here as in reality you are probably looking at KK or AA and even if someone is doing this with a pocket pair you have no commitment to the pot yet and can wait for a better spot IMO. You are also not in any danger of the blinds really hurting you. I think it is one of those situations where you should not just think about what hand you are up against but also whether this is going to be your best shot at staying in the tournament. I always like to be raising all in as opposed to calling all in but am interested to know what happend here. Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, KJo, 27. Sep 2003 10:02 | ||
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| I call. Someone going all in with that size stack may or may not have a great hand, and many of the great hands can still be easily beat by yours. In tournaments I've played, most will not go all in pre-flop with AA or KK, they would want to trap, but not knowing this player/tournament I can't say it's appropriate to make that read, I'm just saying. It takes big plays like this to win tournaments, especially when your stack is below average, and you'll either be lucky or you won't. Eli on 26. Sep 2003 19:41 Schuster wrote: > Just to make sure I didn't goof... > > It's a 10+1 entry 400 person tournament on UB. The blinds are 75/150 and I > have just over 1300 in chips. The average is about 2800, with 125 people left, > and the top 50 get the money. A player UTG + 4 (first 4 players have folded) > moves all in for 1650. It's folded to me in the big blind and I have AKs. > Calling would put me all in. What would you do? > > Lee | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, cafferacer, 27. Sep 2003 15:19 | ||
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| i have to agree, allin. my thoughts are, when will i know im gonna be heads up for sure with a top 5 hand? maybe not for the rest of the tournie. who cares what he has, this is a nice setup for you to get into the top 50. time to gamble when u might have the best hand AND you your heads up... | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, chasepoker, 27. Sep 2003 16:02 | ||
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| So if he guy had not played a hand for an hour and he suddenly goes all in you would call ? Of course you wouldnt. And as for the fact that you have a " group 5 " hand that is utterly irrelevant having AKs and being up against AA is much worse than having 45 and being up against 23 and hands are relative to the situation. Whether to go all in here is a function of many more things than your hand and if you do not consider them all you will be struggling to win tournaments. Schuster what happened out of interest ? on 27. Sep 2003 15:19 cafferacer wrote: > i have to agree, allin. my thoughts are, when will i know im gonna be heads up for > sure with a top 5 hand? maybe not for the rest of the tournie. who cares what he > has, this is a nice setup for you to get into the top 50. time to gamble when u > might have the best hand AND you your heads up... Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, cafferacer, 27. Sep 2003 17:00 | ||
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| i dont understand your logic. you really thing the odds are he up aginst AA, KK QQ here? and saying that going all in here by my reasoning "you will be struggling to win tournaments" is not accurate at all. and btw we dont know if he waited an hour to go allin in this spot, so your comment is irrelevent. but i agree if he did, it would make clling a tougher call and i would probably fold. of course having AK doesnt mean automatic allin but you missed my point completly, rather than suggesting he call only becuase he has AK, im suggessting he call becuase the situation is good for a call here. headup, good hand, short stack=gamble time in a tourny or else YOU wont be finishing very well in tournies my friend. lol on 27. Sep 2003 16:02 chasepoker wrote: > So if he guy had not played a hand for an hour and he suddenly goes all in you would call > ? Of course you wouldnt. And as for the fact that you have a " group 5 " hand that is > utterly irrelevant having AKs and being up against AA is much worse than having 45 and > being up against 23 and hands are relative to the situation. > > Whether to go all in here is a function of many more things than your hand and if you do > not consider them all you will be struggling to win tournaments. > > Schuster what happened out of interest ? > > on 27. Sep 2003 15:19 cafferacer wrote: > > i have to agree, allin. my thoughts are, when will i know im gonna be heads up for > > sure with a top 5 hand? maybe not for the rest of the tournie. who cares what he > > has, this is a nice setup for you to get into the top 50. time to gamble when u > > might have the best hand AND you your heads up... > > Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, cafferacer, 27. Sep 2003 17:14 | ||
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| P.S how much time do you think he has with blinds at 75/150 ??? his stack is 1300. paying attention to his stack here is important as anything else. blinds will be going up and he has to then get a great hand or some decent ones with luck to stay in this thing. i would guess he went allin here and lost or else he wouldnt have posted. but wants to know if it was a mistake. i think it was just a tough call and its up in the air really. | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, chasepoker, 27. Sep 2003 17:41 | ||
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| But my point is you are in this situation probably looking at a 50-50 shot ( to a pair ) you might be lucky and be looking at AQ/AJ probably not unless the player is bad and in the worse case scenario AA / KK. If you believe yourself to be a good player why would you risk everything on a 50-50 ? If you are going to do that you should be Raising all in not calling as this gives you the extra way of winning by no showdown. The only hand the raiser can have that you like is AQ/AJ all other hands are coin flips or big trouble neither of which i like at this stage. The comment about how many hands this other player had played is very relevant and is part of the jigsaw of information that we put to together before making our decision. I am not saying i would never go all in here i am saying i often would not. on 27. Sep 2003 17:00 cafferacer wrote: > i dont understand your logic. you really thing the odds are he up aginst AA, KK QQ here? and > saying that going all in here by my reasoning "you will be struggling to win tournaments" is > not accurate at all. and btw we dont know if he waited an hour to go allin in this spot, so > your comment is irrelevent. but i agree if he did, it would make clling a tougher call and i > would probably fold. of course having AK doesnt mean automatic allin but you missed my point > completly, rather than suggesting he call only becuase he has AK, im suggessting he call > becuase the situation is good for a call here. headup, good hand, short stack=gamble time in a > tourny or else YOU wont be finishing very well in tournies my friend. > lol > > on 27. Sep 2003 16:02 chasepoker wrote: > > So if he guy had not played a hand for an hour and he suddenly goes all in you would call > > ? Of course you wouldnt. And as for the fact that you have a " group 5 " hand that is > > utterly irrelevant having AKs and being up against AA is much worse than having 45 and > > being up against 23 and hands are relative to the situation. > > > > Whether to go all in here is a function of many more things than your hand and if you do > > not consider them all you will be struggling to win tournaments. > > > > Schuster what happened out of interest ? > > > > on 27. Sep 2003 15:19 cafferacer wrote: > > > i have to agree, allin. my thoughts are, when will i know im gonna be heads up for > > > sure with a top 5 hand? maybe not for the rest of the tournie. who cares what he > > > has, this is a nice setup for you to get into the top 50. time to gamble when u > > > might have the best hand AND you your heads up... > > > > Chasepoker Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, cafferacer, 27. Sep 2003 18:24 | ||
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| ok, so good players don't go allin on a coinflip. i dont know where you play but thats funny. i guess you would prefer waiting for a better hand. ok. so know you bet your KK and get called by 3 players, 1 flops 2 pair and cracks your kings. going against 3 callers wouldnt be a coinflip with KK? my point is he has few hands left before being blinded out, where he would probably have to do something desperate anyhow, so even if he waits for the nuts often he could still end up in a coinflip situation. he has less than 50 hands to go here. will he get AA KK QQ etc in under 50 hands? gee isnt that a gamble to wait for a better hand play tight and hope u pick up the superhand? this is no limit, it does take balls in tough situations, and ive seen much weaker calls with weaker hands by pros. so i guess your just the best player ever. i NEVER see allins with A 10/9/8s. lol. you cant play everyhand perfectly, you just cant. but maybe you can. i can see that you are a tight, strong player from your comments. that is good. but ive played with many great players that do coin flips in the situation like our man shuster here. dont act like its a bad call. its just advisable to avoid them if possible. this is a borderline situation if their ever was one. but im crazy, in this spot, its allin time , its double up or bust time!!! pull the trigger! gl shuster | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, cafferacer, 27. Sep 2003 19:02 | ||
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| here is a nice comment that backs up a call here (its almost the same situation) ...and roy cooke agrees: > I think calling the all-in with AKs is a good play. Likely, you are at worst a 52/48 > dog to anyone with a pair other than AA or KK I agree with Shorn....As I do most of the time! Roy Cooke on 27. Sep 2003 17:41 chasepoker wrote: > But my point is you are in this situation probably looking at a 50-50 shot ( to a pair ) you might > be lucky and be looking at AQ/AJ probably not unless the player is bad and in the worse case > scenario AA / KK. If you believe yourself to be a good player why would you risk everything on a > 50-50 ? If you are going to do that you should be Raising all in not calling as this gives you the > extra way of winning by no showdown. > > The only hand the raiser can have that you like is AQ/AJ all other hands are coin flips or big > trouble neither of which i like at this stage. > > The comment about how many hands this other player had played is very relevant and is part of the > jigsaw of information that we put to together before making our decision. > > I am not saying i would never go all in here i am saying i often would not. > on 27. Sep 2003 17:00 cafferacer wrote: > > i dont understand your logic. you really thing the odds are he up aginst AA, KK QQ here? and > > saying that going all in here by my reasoning "you will be struggling to win tournaments" is > > not accurate at all. and btw we dont know if he waited an hour to go allin in this spot, so > > your comment is irrelevent. but i agree if he did, it would make clling a tougher call and i > > would probably fold. of course having AK doesnt mean automatic allin but you missed my point > > completly, rather than suggesting he call only becuase he has AK, im suggessting he call > > becuase the situation is good for a call here. headup, good hand, short stack=gamble time in a > > tourny or else YOU wont be finishing very well in tournies my friend. > > lol > > > > on 27. Sep 2003 16:02 chasepoker wrote: > > > So if he guy had not played a hand for an hour and he suddenly goes all in you would call > > > ? Of course you wouldnt. And as for the fact that you have a " group 5 " hand that is > > > utterly irrelevant having AKs and being up against AA is much worse than having 45 and > > > being up against 23 and hands are relative to the situation. > > > > > > Whether to go all in here is a function of many more things than your hand and if you do > > > not consider them all you will be struggling to win tournaments. > > > > > > Schuster what happened out of interest ? > > > > > > on 27. Sep 2003 15:19 cafferacer wrote: > > > > i have to agree, allin. my thoughts are, when will i know im gonna be heads up for > > > > sure with a top 5 hand? maybe not for the rest of the tournie. who cares what he > > > > has, this is a nice setup for you to get into the top 50. time to gamble when u > > > > might have the best hand AND you your heads up... > > > > > > Chasepoker > > Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, McMonkey, 1. Oct 2003 07:36 | ||
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| I think the piece that you're missing that Chase was trying to include is what you know about the other player. It seems like you're talking about the hand from the perspective of what Schuster has ONLY. What Chase was trying to say (and correct me if I'm wrong here, chase) is that you have to factor in what you know about the player who went all in. If this other player had not played a hand in a very long time, or if he had been playing very tight, or you've only seen him play big hands, or you know his starting requirements, or you have some kind of a tell...at that point you may know that he is much more likely to make this call with AA, KK rather than AQ, AJ or another pocker pair. And, using the same quote you used from Roy, while you are at worst a little worse than a coinflip to any other pocket pair, you are 3 to 1 underdog to K's and much worse to A's. This cannot be a no-brain call without using that information. on 27. Sep 2003 19:02 cafferacer wrote: > here is a nice comment that backs up a call here (its almost the same situation) ...and roy cooke > agrees: > > > I think calling the all-in with AKs is a good play. Likely, you are at worst a 52/48 > > dog to anyone with a pair other than AA or KK > > I agree with Shorn....As I do most of the time! > > Roy Cooke > > on 27. Sep 2003 17:41 chasepoker wrote: > > But my point is you are in this situation probably looking at a 50-50 shot ( to a pair ) you might > > be lucky and be looking at AQ/AJ probably not unless the player is bad and in the worse case > > scenario AA / KK. If you believe yourself to be a good player why would you risk everything on a > > 50-50 ? If you are going to do that you should be Raising all in not calling as this gives you the > > extra way of winning by no showdown. > > > > The only hand the raiser can have that you like is AQ/AJ all other hands are coin flips or big > > trouble neither of which i like at this stage. > > > > The comment about how many hands this other player had played is very relevant and is part of the > > jigsaw of information that we put to together before making our decision. > > > > I am not saying i would never go all in here i am saying i often would not. > > on 27. Sep 2003 17:00 cafferacer wrote: > > > i dont understand your logic. you really thing the odds are he up aginst AA, KK QQ here? and > > > saying that going all in here by my reasoning "you will be struggling to win tournaments" is > > > not accurate at all. and btw we dont know if he waited an hour to go allin in this spot, so > > > your comment is irrelevent. but i agree if he did, it would make clling a tougher call and i > > > would probably fold. of course having AK doesnt mean automatic allin but you missed my point > > > completly, rather than suggesting he call only becuase he has AK, im suggessting he call > > > becuase the situation is good for a call here. headup, good hand, short stack=gamble time in a > > > tourny or else YOU wont be finishing very well in tournies my friend. > > > lol > > > > > > on 27. Sep 2003 16:02 chasepoker wrote: > > > > So if he guy had not played a hand for an hour and he suddenly goes all in you would call > > > > ? Of course you wouldnt. And as for the fact that you have a " group 5 " hand that is > > > > utterly irrelevant having AKs and being up against AA is much worse than having 45 and > > > > being up against 23 and hands are relative to the situation. > > > > > > > > Whether to go all in here is a function of many more things than your hand and if you do > > > > not consider them all you will be struggling to win tournaments. > > > > > > > > Schuster what happened out of interest ? > > > > > > > > on 27. Sep 2003 15:19 cafferacer wrote: > > > > > i have to agree, allin. my thoughts are, when will i know im gonna be heads up for > > > > > sure with a top 5 hand? maybe not for the rest of the tournie. who cares what he > > > > > has, this is a nice setup for you to get into the top 50. time to gamble when u > > > > > might have the best hand AND you your heads up... > > > > > > > > Chasepoker > > > > Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - what would you do?, modestmouse, 1. Oct 2003 16:15 | ||
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| McMonkey no, i understand that and i dont think anyone has said itas a "no brainer call" here is my quote: "of course having AK doesnt mean automatic allin but you missed my point completly, rather than suggesting he call only because he has AK, im suggessting he call because the situation is good for a call here. headup, good hand, short stack=gamble time in a tourny" so yeah, the "situation" i mention could also include feelings about the player (of course it should and would) on 1. Oct 2003 07:36 McMonkey wrote: > I think the piece that you're missing that Chase was trying to include is what you know about the other > player. It seems like you're talking about the hand from the perspective of what Schuster has ONLY. What > Chase was trying to say (and correct me if I'm wrong here, chase) is that you have to factor in what you know > about the player who went all in. > > If this other player had not played a hand in a very long time, or if he had been playing very tight, or > you've only seen him play big hands, or you know his starting requirements, or you have some kind of a > tell...at that point you may know that he is much more likely to make this call with AA, KK rather than AQ, AJ > or another pocker pair. And, using the same quote you used from Roy, while you are at worst a little worse > than a coinflip to any other pocket pair, you are 3 to 1 underdog to K's and much worse to A's. > > This cannot be a no-brain call without using that information. > > > on 27. Sep 2003 19:02 cafferacer wrote: > > here is a nice comment that backs up a call here (its almost the same situation) ...and roy cooke > > agrees: > > > > > I think calling the all-in with AKs is a good play. Likely, you are at worst a 52/48 > > > dog to anyone with a pair other than AA or KK > > > > I agree with Shorn....As I do most of the time! > > > > Roy Cooke > > > > on 27. Sep 2003 17:41 chasepoker wrote: > > > But my point is you are in this situation probably looking at a 50-50 shot ( to a pair ) you might > > > be lucky and be looking at AQ/AJ probably not unless the player is bad and in the worse case > > > scenario AA / KK. If you believe yourself to be a good player why would you risk everything on a > > > 50-50 ? If you are going to do that you should be Raising all in not calling as this gives you the > > > extra way of winning by no showdown. > > > > > > The only hand the raiser can have that you like is AQ/AJ all other hands are coin flips or big > > > trouble neither of which i like at this stage. > > > > > > The comment about how many hands this other player had played is very relevant and is part of the > > > jigsaw of information that we put to together before making our decision. > > > > > > I am not saying i would never go all in here i am saying i often would not. > > > on 27. Sep 2003 17:00 cafferacer wrote: > > > > i dont understand your logic. you really thing the odds are he up aginst AA, KK QQ here? and > > > > saying that going all in here by my reasoning "you will be struggling to win tournaments" is > > > > not accurate at all. and btw we dont know if he waited an hour to go allin in this spot, so > > > > your comment is irrelevent. but i agree if he did, it would make clling a tougher call and i > > > > would probably fold. of course having AK doesnt mean automatic allin but you missed my point > > > > completly, rather than suggesting he call only becuase he has AK, im suggessting he call > > > > becuase the situation is good for a call here. headup, good hand, short stack=gamble time in a > > > > tourny or else YOU wont be finishing very well in tournies my friend. > > > > lol > > > > > > > > on 27. Sep 2003 16:02 chasepoker wrote: > > > > > So if he guy had not played a hand for an hour and he suddenly goes all in you would call > > > > > ? Of course you wouldnt. And as for the fact that you have a " group 5 " hand that is > > > > > utterly irrelevant having AKs and being up against AA is much worse than having 45 and > > > > > being up against 23 and hands are relative to the situation. > > > > > > > > > > Whether to go all in here is a function of many more things than your hand and if you do > > > > > not consider them all you will be struggling to win tournaments. > > > > > > > > > > Schuster what happened out of interest ? > > > > > > > > > > on 27. Sep 2003 15:19 cafferacer wrote: > > > > > > i have to agree, allin. my thoughts are, when will i know im gonna be heads up for > > > > > > sure with a top 5 hand? maybe not for the rest of the tournie. who cares what he > > > > > > has, this is a nice setup for you to get into the top 50. time to gamble when u > > > > > > might have the best hand AND you your heads up... > > > > > > > > > > Chasepoker > > > > > > Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - results, Schuster, 27. Sep 2003 19:32 | ||
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| I called. The other guy had QJo. He caught a queen on the flop and I didn't improve. My reasoning for calling was that if he had AA or KK, he wouldn't go all in like that. Especially with AA, he'd want a little action on it. With KK, I'd think the same. With nearly every other hand he might make that move with, he is dominated or a coinflip. I'd figure he would make this play with any ace-broadway, down to A9s, and maybe even stuff like KQs. Also most medium pairs. I didn't expect it to go as low as QJo. Even still, I thought my overall expecation of odds was about 2-1, as a rough estimate. I later confirmed this with pokerstove and my assumed range of his hands. My estimate was within about 4%. Being that I was a shortstack, I thought that 2-1 was good enough for all my chips. I wasn't anywhere close to the money, and since it was an online tournament, busting out now rather than close to the bubble is actually greater EV since I can play a ring game and make some money. Thanks for all the responses, and if someone still disagrees with the call, don't be shy about it. Let me know what you think. Lee | ||
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| Re: Tournament hand - results, cafferacer, 27. Sep 2003 20:38 | ||
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| YES!! my thoughts exactly, i even thougt "how many times do i see allins with QJ! very funny... and great play even if it is borderline, i like the guts to call... on 27. Sep 2003 19:32 Schuster wrote: > I called. The other guy had QJo. He caught a queen on the flop and I didn't > improve. > > My reasoning for calling was that if he had AA or KK, he wouldn't go all in like > that. Especially with AA, he'd want a little action on it. With KK, I'd think the > same. With nearly every other hand he might make that move with, he is dominated or > a coinflip. I'd figure he would make this play with any ace-broadway, down to A9s, > and maybe even stuff like KQs. Also most medium pairs. I didn't expect it to go as > low as QJo. Even still, I thought my overall expecation of odds was about 2-1, as a > rough estimate. I later confirmed this with pokerstove and my assumed range of his > hands. My estimate was within about 4%. > > Being that I was a shortstack, I thought that 2-1 was good enough for all my chips. > I wasn't anywhere close to the money, and since it was an online tournament, busting > out now rather than close to the bubble is actually greater EV since I can play a > ring game and make some money. > > Thanks for all the responses, and if someone still disagrees with the call, don't be > shy about it. Let me know what you think. > > Lee | ||
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