|
||
|
||
|
Server Time: 8/20/2008 4:56:34 AM PACIFIC |
 Profitable play?, Poker God, 25. Sep 2003 17:07 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| your in the BB with A4s and get a free look at the flop with 4 limpers. flop comes Q63with 2 of your suit. you check and UTG limper bets out and everyone calls up to you. you go ahead and raise to get more money into the pot and boost your odds as most players will not fold for one more bet if they already have one in. is this play profitable over the long run? im not sure how to figure the odds or i would have done it myself, all i know is that it SEEMS profitable but not sure if it is. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, Schuster, 25. Sep 2003 17:18 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| You're 1.86 to 1 to make a flush by the river, so as long as there are 2 or more callers, you are getting money odds to make your hand. If there are 4 or more, this is a great play, since you are getting great odds. If you spot a good player capable of making this move at the table and he makes a raise like this, do what you can to recognize it and reraise to get the field out. Don't give him his money odds and get heads up when you are favored to win. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, Eihli, 25. Sep 2003 18:08 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Shuster, can you explain how they get 1.86:1 to make it by the river? I know that 38/9 gives you the 4.1:1 to make it by the turn, but how do you figure both the turn and the river? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, ReMMy, 25. Sep 2003 18:36 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Don't feel like typing out the math, here's a good site though for a quick reference on outs probabilities. http://www.lowlimitholdem.com/probabilities_of_completing.htm | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, Schuster, 25. Sep 2003 21:35 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| That table will do it. To figure it out by hand, the percentage chance of making your hand is the one minus the chance of missing it on both the turn and the river, assuming you only need to connect on one (or both) streets. For the flush draw, 38 out of the 47 remaining cards miss you on the turn, and 37 out of the remaing 46 cards miss you on the river. 1 - (38/47)*(37/46) = 35%. Lee | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, ADAM THE EXPERT, 26. Sep 2003 03:32 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Close, but it's 35.6 percent | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, Schuster, 26. Sep 2003 10:58 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Sigh. Well, in your seemingly unending effort to put yourself up on a pedestal, you've actually made an error. Do the math. I'm getting 34.9676%. I rounded up the extra bit, I hope no one is overly offended. Good luck to you Adam. Lee | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, ReMMy, 25. Sep 2003 17:21 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| You have about a 35% chance of making your flush and your probably right about them not folding. Since you're drawing to the nut flush I would definately put in the raise. Not only are you getting the odds, but it helps disguise your hand. If the flush card falls, you can bet out into them, and if not, they may be scared to bet the turn and possibly give you a free look at the river. I actually got criticized yesterday for check raising the flop yesterday which I found quite amusing, I was told that I should NEVER check raise the flop. A couple guys then went on to question out loud how I had built my stack so high with my obviously inferior play. hehe. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, Blue Sky, 25. Sep 2003 17:39 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| The only way to play this hand IMO is to raise. The only thing to be concerned about is a pre-flop limper who might of made trips and bet out and was called and now your setting up a perfect opportunity to 3 bet and knock out your opponents that would of made this hand even more profitable when you win. The most obvious reason to raise is of course because of the flush draw which is giving you increcble odds but keep in mind that you also have an ugly gutshot straight draw that could hit runner runner perfect and also the overcard Ace which could possibly be good on its own in this hand. Usually your wouldn't want the gutshot or Ace only as the reason to play this hand but since you are in the hand you must calculate the odds. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, Poker God, 25. Sep 2003 17:54 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| ok sounds good. i use this play quite often and wondered others opinion. and in the hand in question i did hit the ugly runner runner straight to win the hand lol | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, mkpoker, 25. Sep 2003 18:13 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I agree it's a good play but would add the caveat that you shouldn't do it with anything less than the nut-flush or when the board is paired (too much risk of making your hand, only to lose). | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, ADAM THE EXPERT, 26. Sep 2003 03:30 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Uh, Adam the Expert does NOT approve of people using names that imply expertise, when they are just starting. But, I will answer your question. In this spot, with that many callers, even if someone turned over A SET and showed you, you would calmly go about putting in as many raises as everyone else was willing to call. Even against a SET, you are only a three to one underdog to win the pot. but, usually, they WON"T have the set, so this makes you less than a two to one Underdog to win the pot. Quite a bit less, actually. between your 35.6 percent flush chances and two percent straight chances, and the small chance of runner runner aces up or trips, you have around a forty percent chance of winning the pot. So, if you are getting that many callers, you WILL raise, until someone stops, or you run out of raises. Also, though this is a much more advanced concept, by raising so much on what will appear to your opponents as JUST a flush draw, you can expect more action of your future big flops, so the play of raising with your draw has a HUGE Positive Expected Value (E.V. to the rest of the world, Adam the Expert does NOT use abbreviations) well, maybe once. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, Wren, 26. Sep 2003 07:44 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| This is a much better play when you're in late position. This is because when the turn misses you (as it will more often than not), you can often take a free card in late position, but you'll either have to keep betting with your still-drawing hand (which has only half the chance of getting there now), or check and basically tell everyone "I'm on a draw" and then give up the control to someone else, as the turn is likely to be bet by someone. Of course, many people nowadays expect the late position raise-on-a-draw move, but it's still a great move at low limits as players there have the tendency to "check to the raiser". on 25. Sep 2003 17:07 Poker God wrote: > your in the BB with A4s and get a free look at the flop with 4 limpers. flop > comes Q63with 2 of your suit. you check and UTG limper bets out and everyone > calls up to you. you go ahead and raise to get more money into the pot and boost > your odds as most players will not fold for one more bet if they already have > one in. is this play profitable over the long run? im not sure how to figure the > odds or i would have done it myself, all i know is that it SEEMS profitable but > not sure if it is. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, Palinya, 26. Sep 2003 14:03 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| So if it does miss you, you still have 9 out with 46 cards remaining so 5.1:1 odds (I think - I'm really new to this) What do you do? Do you make sure the pot odds are greater than 5.1:1 (which it may be) and reraise? Do you fold if pot odds aren't 5.1? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Profitable play?, Lou Krieger, 26. Sep 2003 08:40 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| It is clearly profitable, and here's how to go about calculating this. The following information was taken from my second book, "MORE Hold'em Excellence: A Winner For Life." Let’s say you’re holding AhJh and the flop is 8h7h3h Since there are thirteen cards of each suit in a deck, and you’ve accounted for four of them, only nine of the remaining 47 cards can be hearts. (Yes, there are three aces and three jacks that may also give you the best hand, but for this exercise we’re only interested in learning how to calculate the chances of making a flush.) It's simpler to calculate the number of ways to miss your flush, subtract the misses from the universe of possibilities, and the result will be our answer. On the flop there are 47 unknown cards. Since nine of them are hearts, the remaining 38 will not help you. If you miss your flush on the turn, there are now only 46 unknown cards. Since nine of them are hearts, 37 others won’t help you. Let’s multiply fractions. It's easy. Multiply the numerator of the first fraction by the numerator of the second, and perform the same calculation for the denominators. The result: 38/47 x 37/46 equals 1406/2162. If you subtract the number of misses (1406) from the total number of possible events (2162), you are left with 756 combinations that result in a flush. Now divide 756 by 2162. The answer is 0.35 (or 35 percent). If you flop a four-flush, you’ll make your flush 35 percent of the time. Do you want to convert that percentage into odds? Here’s how to go about it. Subtract 35 percent from 100 percent, and divide that by 35 percent (100 - 35 = 65; 65 / 35 = 1.86). The odds against completing your flush are 1.86:1. If the pot figures to pay 2:1 or more on your investment, it is a profitable draw in the long run — regardless of whether you make the flush now. Even if you were to miss the next twenty-seven times you’re in this situation, drawing to your flush still has a positive expectation under these circumstances. Since you have no control over the cards that will be dealt, you can only focus on making plays with positive expectations. That’s what having the best of it is all about. It’s also why players can never win over any extended period at craps, roulette, baccarat, and any of the other pit games, with the exception of twenty-one. Every professional poker player, and every skilled amateur who wins steadily at the game, takes the best of it most of the time. What separates winning players from the rest of the pack is this simple fact: Winning players take the gamble out of poker. Hop[e this helps... Lou Krieger | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| POKER FORUM HOME | POKER FORUM | LINK TO US | ARCHIVE | ONLINE POKER | Copyright 2002, United Poker Forum |
|
Getting Started |
UPF Tournaments |
Poker News, Views, Rules |
Poker Strategy & Psychology |
Money and Bankroll Poker Bonuses & Promotions | World Series of Poker (WSOP) | Play Online Poker | Poker Odds & Statistics | Tournament Poker | Poker Books, Videos & Learning Tools Looking for a Poker Game | Poker Bad Beats | Not Quite Poker | Quizzes and Polls | Forum Suggestions & Bugs |
|
|
|
|
Interesting Links: Online Poker | Free Poker Games | United Poker Network |
|