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Server Time: 12/2/2008 7:09:14 AM PACIFIC |
 Probabilities, Rick B., 24. Sep 2003 21:34 | ||
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| What would be the odds of a pair of 8's (1:8 on the flop)becoming trips, and then, just calling all the way to the river and winning against 3 or 4 other players? How about a pair of 3's, J's, or maybe any ramdom pair, heads up? I've heard that trips will win about 80% of the time. How really good are low or med flushes, and straights? And my very own personal killer, the"2 pairs", which I just about always muck on sight. | ||
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| Re: Probabilities, Spimley, 24. Sep 2003 23:17 | ||
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| 43 % favorit to win with 3 random card players 28 % with 4. chance of trips 11% | ||
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| Re: Probabilities, Spimley, 24. Sep 2003 23:20 | ||
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| if you add that 2 other players hold semi solid cards, a/10 and k/j then you drop 10 % so 88 not a favorite big better pre-flop my opinion better to limp then fold if not set on flop | ||
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| Re: Probabilities, Rick B., 25. Sep 2003 16:44 | ||
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| on 24. Sep 2003 23:20 Spimley wrote: > if you add that 2 other players hold semi solid cards, a/10 and k/j > > then you drop 10 % so 88 not a favorite big better pre-flop > my opinion better to limp then fold if not set on flop I always try to see the flop cheaply. Very unusual for me to raise with anything, pre-flop. If the flop is good, I'll check & call with a RED pair, (the 2 in my pocket), I'll call & raise with RED & BLACK pair (the 2 in my pocket), and with BLACK pairs, I'll check& raise all the way. This way, don't give away my hand,I hope. Thanks for the %'s Rick B | ||
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| Re: Probabilities, 4 POKER, 25. Sep 2003 16:51 | ||
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| on 25. Sep 2003 16:44 Rick B. wrote: > on 24. Sep 2003 23:20 Spimley wrote: > > if you add that 2 other players hold semi solid cards, a/10 and k/j > > > > then you drop 10 % so 88 not a favorite big better pre-flop > > my opinion better to limp then fold if not set on flop Hey Rick, Am I missing something here? 4P- > I always try to see the flop cheaply. Very unusual for me to raise with anything, > pre-flop. If the flop is good, I'll check & call with a RED pair, (the 2 in my pocket), > I'll call & raise with RED & BLACK pair (the 2 in my pocket), and with BLACK pairs, I'll > check& raise all the way. This way, don't give away my hand,I hope. > > Thanks for the %'s > > Rick B | ||
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| Re: Probabilities, Schuster, 25. Sep 2003 17:15 | ||
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| I think so, because I'm missing it too Dave. Care to elaborate Rick? Lee | ||
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| Re: Probabilities, 4 POKER, 25. Sep 2003 17:25 | ||
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| Hey Lee, I thought there was a new system or somethin' that I overlooked perhaps! Please fill us in Rick. Dave | ||
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| Re: Probabilities, Rick B., 25. Sep 2003 19:46 | ||
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| Gentlemen, Nothing really. I just use the colors to disguise my hand. Example: AsAc: Check & raise AhAs: Bet & raise AhAc: Bet & raise AdAs: Bet & raise AdAc: Bet & raise AdAh: Check & call (only) This way when I have pocket AA . I won't always cap the betting and tell everyone within 100 miles what I have, in my hand. No big deal, Rick B | ||
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| Re: Probabilities, 4 POKER, 26. Sep 2003 05:15 | ||
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| Hey Rick, Actually, it IS a big deal! You stated that you like to see the flop cheaply and that it's very unusual for you to raise with anything pre-flop. But you may be allowing for inferior hands to see the flop at too cheap a price, thus leaving your own strong starting hand in jeopardy, and when you do hold the great hands like A-A, K-K, you should want to build the pot up pre-flop while also trying to eliminate the field or at least make them pay to see it. Now if you're holding Aces, whether one is black and one is red.....or one is the Ace of clubs and the Ace of diamonds (or whatever system you're using).....should never be the determining factor in which you use to control your betting. You should handle your pocket Aces (for example) on the flop that you think best suits the way they should be played. What comes out on the flop should be one consideration. How many opponents are in the hand should be another consideration. What your position is and what type of players are behind you or in front of you can come into factor on whether you think you could 'maneuver' the hand in any way as a means to try and knock some players out., or to extract more bets....etc., etc.. But say when you have the two red Aces you just check and call...don't you think there could be a very good chance that you may be putting your holding at risk. There's nothing wrong with trying to be deceptive and to try and throw players off from what you're holding.....but to play them in a way that is anything then how they need to be played "optimally", is not being deceptive. Unless you flop quad Aces, you are allowing for all the drawing hands to catch up and "get there" without having to make them come to any decisions on whether or not they want to "put" in 3 cold bets to draw to a nine high flush! (understand what I'm saying?). I think you need to forget about what color your Aces are, and play them in an effective way to maximize on the hand, while also being able to throw the Aces away when the board *doesn't* fit you good enough. Of course you'll need to know if you hold the Ace of clubs and the flop comes up with 3 raggedy clubs if you're going to continue any more. But if you're not holding the Ace of clubs, but say that was one of the (combinational) pair of Aces that you chose to raise, raise, raise.......would you still bet and raise with a board like that? Aces are Aces no matter what suit they are. The only thing that should come into factor is whether or not you'll be *needing* for one of those Aces to complete a flush with, if need be. Play them the best way you know how to play them, and that should be aggresively pre-flop.....and post-flop as well, when you think that they 'should' be or need to be played that way. And put them right in the muck when need be as well. How many opponents are calling bets, and what comes on the flop, turn, and river.......and how the betting went down, and what you're putting your opponents on, etc., should determine how your Aces should be handled, for each time that they come your way; which means, sometimes, you should check-raise, and sometimes you'll need to bet straight out with 'em, and sometimes you'll need to fold.....whatever. (Each hand is situational). You must be aware of your players and what their tendencies are as well. That's how you can maximize on the winning hands while also allowing yourself to minimize on your losses when they don't look good enough anymore to continue with.....whether they be the black Aces or the red ones! good luck. 4P- | ||
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| Re: Probabilities, Rick B., 26. Sep 2003 16:15 | ||
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| 4P I get tired of being told "you must have A's", as the other players are folding, and I do!! Since I have started using this color code, they have started guessing wrong more often than not. The color code is used with any of the hands that I don't muck, right off. Of course I hate to give free cards, but the guys I play with are pretty tight, and don,t call a lot of raises. I need to wait for the Turn before I can get any action. By then it might be too late, and I have missed my chance. Yes, I live in a very small town with 2 card rooms. One of the rooms, is open, a half a day ,5days a week. The other is open 24/7, with 4 tables, but usually only one table is open. I'm surprised when I see someone new playing. The 2 Rules to play by: 1. Rules are made to be broken.. 2. See above. Rick B | ||
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| Re: Probabilities, DJpoker, 27. Sep 2003 07:59 | ||
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| Hey Rick, I think you need to vary your play a bit. I know it will require you to go out on a limb, but throw out a raise with J-10 suited or a pair of 9s. If no one calls, be sure to expose your cards. I think 1 or 2 raises a night like this will get you more action when you do have AA (regardless of their color). I agree with 4poker as usual. Get more money in the pot when you have the best of it. Make it expensive for the 10-9, Q-J, 8-7 suited players to draw out. A flop of 8-7-K could bust you up if you let everyone limp in. Anyway, good luck. DJpoker | ||
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