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Server Time: 12/2/2008 7:20:06 AM PACIFIC |
 Question to regular sit n go players, palman, 23. Sep 2003 23:16 | ||
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| What's the fluctuations in your bankroll that you usually experience when playing the NL sit n go's. I've built my bankroll up from 100 to about 5,000 over the past 3 months exclusively at the 30$ SnG's on party, and my usual downturn would result in my bankroll dropping about $300 bucks over the course of a couple days (had this a couple times) and my most extreme was a $500 dollar downturn. However I'm currently experiencing my worst downturn to date. About a 500-600 hit to the bankroll (although monetarily its not affecting me much, since I have built up enough to handle the swing, and I'm rather confident that I can beat the game consistently) The unusual part about this swing is that it's all in a row. I've lost a good 15 SnG's in a row, and I cant remember finishing worse than 6th in any of them. By my memory only 2 or 3 of them had me going in with the worst of it (unless of course I was just blinded to death) I've had swings before, but it was a more gradual swings, with a few cashes in there, but over the course of a few days losing, and this one is just slapping me in the face. Wondering what the other fluctuations in bankroll for the profitable sit n go players is. I'm not too worried because its basically just countless cases where I'm in preflop with a superior holding that gets cracked, but just trying to get a grasp of how unlucky I've been *note* I'm a good judge of how I'm playing, and can usually rather easily tell when I'm playing awfully, but during this stretch I can only recall 2 or 3 big mistakes, which over the course of 15 or so tournaments I'm willing to accept or could even be standard. If I had never played one before one would expect me to cash in one out of 15, and I've got over 1,000 under my belt at this point =) or how about this question to the math guys.... assuming all players are equal, 10 players, 3 cash, what are the odds that one player won't cash in 15 straight? I'm assuming it'd just be .7^15 which equals one half of one percent. So would that mean that if I played 3,000 sit n go's that it would be expected that I would have this kind of run once? Although that would assume we'd have to analyze it as 200 blocks of 15, so assuming the block would start over every time I did cash perhaps I'd have that kind of run statistically in less than 3,000 tourneys. | ||
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| Re: Question to regular sit n go players, stdioh, 25. Sep 2003 10:11 | ||
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| These things happen. Generally speaking when you have a downturn like that it is going to be all losses in a row. It is hard to explain, but this is just probility evening out. When you win 5 tourneys in a row it is easy to pat yourself on the back and tell yourself how smart you are and then when you lose 10 in a row you wonder what the damn hell ... well, remember that it is all a question of the long run. As long as you think you're playing just as well and your opponents are playing just as badly, then you're probably just catching cold cards. | ||
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| Re: Question to regular sit n go players, tommyhawk, 26. Sep 2003 04:01 | ||
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| hey palman, Yeah we all know this can happen and it does. I have dips in my bankroll like this but not that many in a row. When i don't make the money in 7 (max up till now) I am not sharp enough anymore. I know i don't play my best game ( tired, two tables, impatience ..etc..) but the hardest thing to do is to take time off (one day or two) and do something else. I'take a long walk a jog or long sit at the river and analyze my play and see where i acted wrong. Hit the books and refresh and get myself some oh yes thats right moments. This has worked for me and as mike caro said (fundamentel secrets of winning poker) you got to play your best game allways. You know if you made a good play or questionable one. If you threw your chips in the pot with AA all 15 tourneys you lost preflop you no it is bad luck. Else think about the things where you might have made a mistake. Well you propably know the way you made your bankroll. see you on party ;) tommyhawk keep on learning. | ||
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