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Server Time: 12/2/2008 7:13:56 AM PACIFIC |
 Standard Deviation - a stupid question, beigs, 23. Sep 2003 11:31 | ||
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| Here's my stupid question for the week. What does the standard deviation tell you? I've been logging all my sessions on Poker Charts and I see people mention its importance and i have no clue what I'm supposed to read into those numbers. thanks, beigs | ||
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| Re: Standard Deviation - a stupid question, Michael C, 23. Sep 2003 12:05 | ||
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| SD is a statistical term for the distance from the average (mean). If you enter all of your winnings and losses into an Excel spreadsheet you can calculate 1 Standard Deviation. Which is about 65% or so. What I think they are talking about is the swings during a given number of poker sessions. Say you win 100 in one game and then lose 100 in another game you are back to zero. The mean is 100 and the SD is $0. If you track your w/l and calculate the SD then you will get a feel for how much you normally win or lose during a given session 65% of the time. It might be something like mean (average) +$11 with a SD of say 60. That means that 65% of the time you win $71 or lose $48. Since the SD is +/- of the mean (average). This, of course, would be great. The higher the SD the more the swings. e. g.. Bigger wins and bigger losses. The bigger bankroll you need. It gives you an idea of what to expect. If you have a high SD and a positive mean then when you hit a big lose it is expected and you can work thru it better. I have had swings in $3-6 of +/- $200 a game. I think that Excel can only do 1 SD. There are really 3 SD in statistics. Loss -55 Win 25 Loss -48 Win 70 WIn 65 SD 60.06 Mean 11.4 SD + M 71.46 SD - M -48.66 | ||
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| Re: Standard Deviation - a stupid question, beigs, 23. Sep 2003 12:25 | ||
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| Thanks for the attempt but I'm still a little confused. I might as well just post my stats and see if someone can explain what they mean. Never mind that these were tracked over a statistically insignificant amount of time. Avg. Return: $11.12 Avg. Win rate: $2.27/hr Return Std. Dev.: $71.63 Win Rate Std Dev.: $30.20/hr. I have a feeling that my tournament winnings are skewing these numbers. They just look goofy. Thanks for the help. beigs | ||
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| Re: Standard Deviation - a stupid question, GambleAB, 23. Sep 2003 18:47 | ||
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| on 23. Sep 2003 12:25 beigs wrote: > > Thanks for the attempt but I'm still a little confused. I might as well just post my > stats and see if someone can explain what they mean. Never mind that these were tracked > over a statistically insignificant amount of time. > > Avg. Return: $11.12 > Avg. Win rate: $2.27/hr > Return Std. Dev.: $71.63 > Win Rate Std Dev.: $30.20/hr. > > I have a feeling that my tournament winnings are skewing these numbers. They just look > goofy. Thanks for the help. > > beigs > That means that 66% of your sessions you will make between +82.75 and -60.51; in 95% of your sessions you will make between +154.38 and -132.14, and in 99% of your sessions you will make between +226.01 and -203.77 | ||
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| Re: Standard Deviation - a stupid question, shorn, 23. Sep 2003 13:07 | ||
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| Standard deviation is a measure that tells you within certain confidence levels (66%, 95%, and 99%) what you should expect from a given session. So, if the mean (average) win in your sessions is $20, and the standard deviation is $40, then you should expect 66% of your sessions to be between $60 and -$20, 95% of your sessions to be between $100 and -$60, and 99% of your sessions to be between $140 and -$100. What you should do is put all of your session wins/losses into an Excel spreadsheet and then calculate the mean and the SD and then graph your results in a scatterplot to determine if there is any skewness in the distribution or if it is normal. The tighter your distribution, the lower your standard deviation should be meaning that most of your results are quite consistent. A wide distribution with a large SD means that you are all over the map. Hope this helps. Steve | ||
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| Re: Standard Deviation - a stupid question, kennycatkiller, 23. Sep 2003 19:41 | ||
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| Standard deviation describes how volatile your results are. For example, if your mean win (per hour/session/week/month/year) is 10 units, what can you expect in your next outing? Probably NOT +100 units and probably NOT -100 units. Assuming your sample # or results is relatively large, your next outing will probably array itself around 10, plus or minus three std devs. But, some games have a much higher volatility than others (Omaha and Omaha H/L, for example). I recommend you read a Stats & Probabilities book (e.g., such as one used for college courses in Stats). One is "Statistics-Principles and Methods" by R.Johnson and G. Bhattacharyya. Good luck. | ||
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| Re: Standard Deviation - a stupid question, Antonio K, 1. Oct 2003 13:54 | ||
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| Another important concept is the median, this just tells you how many of the observations lie above a certain number and how many lie beneath, for example if your average is 26 and the median is 12, this tells you that half of the times you're above 12 and half of them below it giving you another insight into your play. Also, think of the tails (two standard deviations) as worse or best expectations, for, almost 2/3 of the time you will come back home within one SD up or one Down... | ||
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