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Server Time: 12/2/2008 9:01:04 AM PACIFIC |
 hand analysis, Mark, 18. Sep 2003 16:57 | ||
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| Hi all Here's a hand where I never really knew for sure where i stood. All thoughts are welcome. $5-10 hold'em online. 8 or 9 handed. I was not at my best during this session and I was unsure of my reads. I only had two opponents in this hand. The SB was new to the table an only played one round. On his late position post, he called a raise with a K5 offsuit, called a flop bet with nothing, bluffed the turn into 3 opponents, and bet a pair of 5s (bottom pair) on the river. (maybe advertising) and won! If this was a great play by him it eluded me. The other opponent in *my* hand lost to the SB on the hand described above without showing, so he probably called with an ace overcard throught out the hand. But this player seems aware and was playing the players. He was raising to isolate a loose player earlier. The table is tight aggressive for the limit. Many hands are raise preflop and won uncontested, or have only the blinds call. More than a few hands hand no one calling the blinds. However, even with this tight table, a few players had the opportunity to show down any 2 suited cards from any position. And my opponents, as above, made some really unorthodox plays also. The whole table was weird with players alternating between sqeaky tight and very loose. This was the first time i saw this table at this site like this. There was alot of FPS (fancy play sydrome) happening, making or really weird plays. So, to the hand in question I get AQoff in early position and open raise. Only the SB (the first player described above) and the BB (the 2nd player above) call. $32 in the pot. flop is 774 Both blinds check and i bet. Both call. Hmmm.... Over cards, slowplaying trips, gutshot draw, garbage? I don't know what they have. $45 in the pot Turn is an offsuit 2. Both blinds check, as do I. I figured the 2 couldn't have helped anyone, and they know that. I could bet representing an overpair, but expect to get called anyway, or raised by trips. A bet will only win if i'm way ahead, and will cost me money if i'm behind. Checking may also induce a bluff from the SB. A free card may make one of them a pair to win the pot, but I don't think there is much chance to win the pot outright because of BB's tendency to call. If they have overcards, they probably contain an ace, so an ace on the river will make me some money. Also, earlier the BB called down a similar situation with a middle pair. $45 in the pot River is a Q (7742). Giving me top pair (AQo) The SB bets and the BB raises. SB is capable of a bluff here and BB knows it. But either could have slow played trips. the BB would not have raised without a Q, and is his most likely holding ( i think) I decide to call expecting/ hoping that the SB was bluffing and BB was betting a weaker Q than me. Looking back this seems like i'm asking for alot, but it seemed plausable at the time. Unfortunately, the SB 3bets. Now the BB folds, so one of my reads was right, but I now figure the SB has me beat. $105 in the pot I call without really thinking (just because of pot odds). (this is one my big leaks with online play due to the speed of play) So i get to see that the SB played 44 and flopped the under full. It seems apparent now that i should have folded to the last bet, but what about the calling on the river to begin with. Was i justified? Top pair top kicker seems like a weak hand to be calling, but the way the hand played out, if figured there was chance i could still have the best hand. How about the Turn? Should i have bet it? I thought that if someone had trips, i could check the turn and check call the river, getting into a show down for 1 BB, where as if i got raised i'd have to fold. Thanks in advance Mark | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, Schuster, 18. Sep 2003 18:03 | ||
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| I would bet the turn here. If you are checkraised, you can fold full well knowing that you don't have the best hand and are likely drawing dead. If you do have the best hand, it's likely that they will both fold and then you won't be second guessing yourself. When I bet the flop and 1 or 2 opponents just call, I'm betting the turn if a blank hits. If they had a hand they felt good about, they'd raise, or they're slowplaying and you're buried anyway, but you find out for one big bet. Bet the turn next time. Lee | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, Mark, 19. Sep 2003 00:45 | ||
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| Hi Lee Normally i would bet the turn, but did not figure i would win on the turn even if i was in the lead at that point. Does that make it acceptable to check the turn? On the turn, i thought that by checking i could get a show down for 1 BB. Where as if i bet and was beaten, i still pay 1 BB but don't get the showdown. It would have worked if the BB didn't raise with a weak hand on the river. Thanks Mark | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, shorn, 19. Sep 2003 04:55 | ||
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| Mark- I do understand your thinking. However, you have basically nothing on the turn, so you really don't want anyone to bluff at you on the river where you will feel compelled to call with Ace high. Also, the 2 likely didn't help anyone and since you raised pre-flop and bet the flop, betting the turn represents an overpair which may gt someone to fold A4s or something like that. If you check the turn and then it is bet and raised on the river, now you aren't getting a showdown for 1 BB anymore. Not only that, but once the BB raises the river, it is so unlikely that your top/top is good that you have to fold rather than call a raise cold. River raises at limits 10/20 and below are rarely bluff raises in my experience. | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, Schuster, 19. Sep 2003 09:06 | ||
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| I can understand why you would want a free showdown, but really, the only thing you gain from it is information on how your opponents play their hands. If you bet the turn, you give your opponents an additional chance to fold. If the river was a king and one of the blinds wins with something like KQo, would you still be glad you didn't bet? If they raise you on the turn, you can be pretty sure you are beaten, and then you don't need the showdown to tell you that. If you did not think you would win it on the turn with a bet even if you were in the lead, what hands are hanging around that will call a bet but can't beat ace high? If they have a flush draw or a straight draw, then you're charging them to draw out on your fragile holding. If you check and a flush or straight card comes, and one of them bets, you can't be sure what they are betting. It might be that they hit their hand, or the might have the trips, or they might be on a stone bluff. If you bet the turn, you'll have a much better idea where you stand. The last thing is that you did say the table was full of fancy play syndrome. If you believe one of your opponents to be capable of checkraise bluffing you on the turn, then checking doesn't put you in a situation where they might make that sort of play, but it also gives them a chance to draw out for free. If you were against only one opponent, giving a free card on the turn would be much less dangerous than giving a free card to two people, and to me, that would be the deciding factor. Since there are two opponents, each is less likely to check raise bluff, and a free card is more likely to hurt you. I think I would still bet the turn. Lee | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, shorn, 19. Sep 2003 04:51 | ||
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| Good point Lee that I forgot to mention. The plain fact that the 2 was lower than any of the flop cards does seem to make the turn an automatic bet and if that is called again, then hopefully it is checked on the river and you get a free showdown. | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, shorn, 19. Sep 2003 04:50 | ||
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| This is another tough one and really because you don't have enough experience with these two players yet to know what to expect (not to mention that what you know of them is bizarre showdown hands like K5). However, I think you have to fold on the river to the BB's raise simply because the both called your pre-flop raise and called the ragged flop. Then, they all got interested on the river when the Q hit meaning to me that they didn't "fear" top pair. IMO, the WORST hand that anyone would/could bet the river with is QJ which you can beat. But, I think you when the BB raises, he is announcimng that he has at least top/top, so you are calling a raise cold to split at best with the risk of the SB re-raising behind you. Also, I have found that you need to be very careful of players who play passively until the river nd then they get excited. This generally means they have a bigger hand than top/top. | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, Mark, 19. Sep 2003 12:09 | ||
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| > This is another tough one and really because you don't have enough experience with > these two players yet to know what to expect (not to mention that what you know of > them is bizarre showdown hands like K5). However, I think you have to fold on the > river to the BB's raise simply because the both called your pre-flop raise and called > the ragged flop. Then, they all got interested on the river when the Q hit meaning > to me that they didn't "fear" top pair. > > IMO, the WORST hand that anyone would/could bet the river with is QJ which you can > beat. But, I think you when the BB raises, he is announcimng that he has at least > top/top, so you are calling a raise cold to split at best with the risk of the SB > re-raising behind you. Also, I have found that you need to be very careful of > players who play passively until the river nd then they get excited. This generally > means they have a bigger hand than top/top. Normally, this would be true, but agaisnt these guys, anything was possible. I am pretty sure that the BB did not raise with top/top or better, and may have even been bluff raising to push me out. This is what i trying to ask, knowing that top/top or better is not for certain the BB's raising hand, is a call profitable? You have said that a call is not profitable because the raiser has top/top or better (and normally i would agree). But i am asking you to assume he is capable of raising with a weaker hand in this position. Does this extra fact make a call profitable? As for the turn, i understand everyone's comments about betting the turn, but i was feeling certain i had no chance of getting both players to fold, and therefore thought that bet would be a waste. I could easily see these opponents calling a turn bet with weaker than AQ overcards, a draw, or trips. I still don't see a turn bet necessarily being a +EV play. Obviously i made a mistake calling the river 3-bet (and probably the first two on the river). Too many weird things were happening at this table and my judgement was off. But i'm still not 100% convinced my turn play was wrong. Thanks for your thoughts, and if you have any others about this i would like to hear them. Mark | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, shorn, 19. Sep 2003 12:25 | ||
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| I guess I would want to know the range of hands that you think he would raise with on the river and then which hand of those you can beat. Also, you always have to consider the SB three-betting behind you. All in all, I think that regardless of how you have seen these two play, their play until the river is suspiciously passive enough to give you serious reservations that you are in first (or even 2nd) place. Frankly, if you were going to stay in this pot, you probably should have 3-bet yourself to try and fold the SB off his hand. I realize it wouldn't have worked here, but I would prefer that strategy to flat calling two bets. I just don't like flat calling here. Either get out or try to eliminate someone from the showdown. | ||
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