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Server Time: 8/30/2008 9:10:17 AM PACIFIC |
 Odds of Flopping Draw or More, RamDannyboy, 14. Sep 2003 23:02 | ||
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| Say you start with suited connectors (eg 9s 8s), what are the odds of flopping any one of the following: 1) Flush draw, 2) Open ended straight draw, 3) Flush, 4) Straight. Thanks in advance for your response. | ||
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| Re: Odds of Flopping Draw or More, Schuster, 14. Sep 2003 23:08 | ||
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| There's a link to poker odds at the bottom of the forum that has the answers to all of these questions and more. Check it out, it's great info! Lee | ||
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| Re: Odds of Flopping Draw or More, RamDannyboy, 14. Sep 2003 23:32 | ||
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| Thanks Lee. I have look at the tables but I don't think any answer this specific question. The reason I ask is because I been thinking about when it is advantageous to raise preflop with suited connectors. (Say 9s 8s). How many limper do you need? | ||
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| Re: Odds of Flopping Draw or More, stdioh, 15. Sep 2003 09:49 | ||
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| Here's the real problem with suited connectors. When you hit your hand, it is vulnerable to be drawn out on. So if you flop your flush (which is very rare) then anybody with a higher card of the suit than yours is drawing to a better flush. So you're now drawing to clean cards and you have to play fast and hope to take the small pot there. Nobody is going to chase other draws or assume their hand is good. It is dangerous. Likewise when you flop a straight, there are going to be lots of outs to better straights. For instance, if you're holding 9cTc a flop like 8dJdQd gives you the nuts and you're doing just great, but there's no slowplay value because any 9, T, K, or A is almost certain to give somebody else a better hand than yours *AND* there's a flush draw against you. The real value of suited connectors, I find is in the uber-draw. Where I make the most money on hands like this is when there are a lot of players in the pot and I flop a flush draw and a straight draw. This is rare, but the extra outs are worthwhile. For instance, if you flop a flush draw and an up/down straight draw, you're about a 50% favourite to make a hand. Now if there are 5 players in the pot, you can bet it up and make it look like you're on a made hand, so that you also get paid off when you make your draw. Still, don't overvalue your suited connectors. If there are 5 people in a pot you can definitely limp with them and see what you get and if there are enough people and you are in position you can try raising for deception, since you're not losing value by it. Here's a good place to raise with suited connectors: You're on the puck and get 4 limpers. You raise here for 2 reasons. 1, if you fold the blinds then you have their stolen dead money in the pot and 4 opponents, otherwise you have 5 or 6 opponents, so you have odds to play your suited connectors. 2 If you hit a draw, there's a good chance you'll be able to get a free card when everybody "checkes to the raiser" giving you a better chance at making a hand for "free" later. Of course you paid your one bet earlier, but this is amortized by the fact that if you hit your hand very hard, nobody will give you credit for it. For instance, when you hold 8s9s and raise on the puck and the flop comes 289, nobody will give you credit for 2 pair and you'll be able to get extra bets from players with top pair good kicker, etc. | ||
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| Re: Odds of Flopping Draw or More, ADAM THE EXPERT, 20. Sep 2003 23:57 | ||
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| Note: these odds are not perfect, but are within five percnet of the actual odds. good enough. Flush draw, EXACTLY ten point six percent. Straight draw, about twelve percent Flush: About .75 percent Straight, About 1.00 percent. I don't remember the exact odds for each, but these are very very close, except for the flush draw, which is exact. | ||
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