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Server Time: 3/16/2010 1:13:48 PM PACIFIC |
 Calling with anything in big pots re-examined- Lottery Larry, osucbj04, 14. Sep 2003 21:53 | ||
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| I believe (please correct me if I'm wrong here) that Shorn incorectly calculated the odds of Lottery Larry winning the hand in question in a previous post. I would like to re-examine and see if maybe he should have stayed around. He had 4-5 of diamonds and the flop came K-8-3 (one diamond). Now, the consensus here is to fold. Here's my reasoning to give it a shot (basis= 39 bets in the pot). Lets assume that the following turn and river would give him a winning hand: 6-7 (sure, someone could have a higher straight, but that would mean that they would have had to call after the flop with 9-10 or 9-5. The latter probably wouldn't even be in the hand. The former would fold based on your reasoning of folding 5-4. Pretty much drawing at the same thing. A-2, 2-6, 4-4, 5-5, and 4-5. I'm going to say 2 pair could take this hand because to hit two pair and lose another player would have to play on k-5, k-4, 8-5, or 8-4. Very unlikely someone would enter a hand with K-5 or K-4 (when capped) but this is online and we know some of the opponents we are up against. In addition a 5-4 would give A-2 a straight and 6-7 a straight. 6-7 wouldn't still be in because he is in the same boat as Larry and all the experts say to fold. A-2 could still be in. I still take my chances he isn't or the hand doesn't exist. Any 2 diamonds. Who else would stick around with two diamonds after only getting one on the flop? Probably the one with the ace, only because he has the overcard. I'd take my chances there. The A-x suited would have to exist and that player would have to call knowing he is no longer the favorite (although he still has pot odds). So, that being said, the following turn cards would give him reason to see the river: Ace (4) ,2 (4),4 (3),5(3),6(4),7(4), and the remaining 6 diamonds for a total of 28 cards of 47 remaining. That right there would give me reason to see the turn for one flop. Any average poker player should be able to figure their odds of finishing should they hit on the turn. In addition, should the A,2,6,or 7 of diamonds (16/47) fall on the turn he has 17 cards of 46 to give him a straight or flush after the river. Right there he has a 1:8 chance of doing just what I mentioned. A step further. Hitting either A-2 (1.48%), 2-6 (1.48%), 6-7 (1.48%), 5-5 (.0055%), 4-4 (.00555) would most likely yield the best hand. Using those as only his outs he has a 4.45% chance of winning. With 39 bets in the pot he is getting pot odds, isn't he? That doesn't take into account that hitting may give someone else a flush, or the fact that his trips could lose to somebodys higher trips. It also doesn't take into account the fact that he could hit running 2 pair (4's and 5's) or 2 diamonds to win. Let me know what you guys think. Thanks. Please let me know what you think. | ||
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| Re: Calling with anything in big pots re-examined- Lottery Larry, Lottery Larry, 15. Sep 2003 07:36 | ||
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| I copied this under the original thread, under shorn's reply, for you. we'll see what answers come. | ||
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