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Server Time: 8/30/2008 6:39:20 AM PACIFIC |
 What would you do?, sfrancis, 14. Sep 2003 20:45 | ||
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| Please analyze this situation. $10-$20. I am in the big blind with 10d 10s. EP calls. MP1 calls. MP2 calls. Button raises. Everyone, including me, calls. Small blind falls. $105 in the pot. Flop: 2c 4d 7c. I bet. Everyone calls and button raises. I call. EP calls. MP1 reraises. MP2 calls. Button reraises (cap). $20 to me. At this point, there is $285 in the pot. What would you do? I would like at least one unbiased response, so I will give my chain of logic, what happened, and further questions after the first response. I am interested in the mathematical, long-run, poker theoretical, odds, etc. evaluation of what i should do, namely call or fold. Thank you. | ||
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| Re: What would you do?, Schuster, 14. Sep 2003 22:03 | ||
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| In my opinion, there's almost no way your have the best hand right now, and even if you do, someone has a very strong draw like 5c 6c or Ac 4c, or maybe Ac Kc for the button. The question becomes whether you have the odds to draw to your set. Since you don't have the 10 of clubs, I think you're drawing to 1 clean out and even if you hit, there's redraws against you. I'd say you have to let it go. Lee | ||
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| Re: What would you do?, sfrancis, 15. Sep 2003 06:09 | ||
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| Ok. I did fold the $20 to me on the flop. After turn: 2c 4d 7c 10h EP, MP1, and MP2 checks. Button bets. EP folds. MP1 and MP2 call. Pot is $345. After river: 2c 4d 7c 10h 10c MP1 bets. MP2 raises. Button reraises. MP1 reraises (cap). MP2 calls. Button calls. Pot is $585. MP1 turns over ace-high flush. MP2 turns over king-high flush. Button turns over sevens full of tens. Commentary: As it turned out, I had the best hand pre-flop, second-best hand flop, and folded the would-be nuts on the turn and on the river. Again, I was fairly confident that I made the correct decision. It's just that it was the largest pot that I had ever been involved in, although I did not even see the turn card. What is remarkable is that the river card made all those seemingly monster hands while making the unthinkable runner-runner quads for me. If I had been in, there would've been another round of betting on the turn, making the final pot $665. I folded because I did not have the ten of clubs. Further questions and my responses. Please address these questions too, if you have any ideas. Q1: If I had the ten of clubs, should I have called the $20 pre-flop? A1: Yes, I had the correct odds, as I would fold on the turn if a ten did not arrive. Q2: If I had mistakenly made the $20 pre-flop call or made a loose call and received the ten of clubs on the turn, I would have been in a position to check and forced to call possibly a $60 bet with seven outs (a ten and cards to pair the board, except for one of the flop cards, assuming a set among the field), anticipating at least a reraise with the made flushes. On the flop, there was $285 in the pot. How much would there have been necessary in the pot for me to call the $20 without the ten of clubs? I know this is an incredibly complicated question since it's effectively a decision-tree analysis. With the ten of clubs on the turn, I would need about 5.6-to-1 odds to call the anticipated $60, which I would have. How would I factor this possibility into the original $20 call, which was somewhere between 1 and 2 outs? I just assumed I would need around 30-to-1 odds to call, so I folded. Thank you. | ||
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| Re: What would you do?, Pedro, 15. Sep 2003 06:23 | ||
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| The way people are betting you look lost. The button could be on a high pair or atleast on a good draw. The reraiser worries me the most. If the only one that was raising was the button I would continue playing on. I would have to put the middle position raiser on atleast two pair if not trips. He could have a hand like pocket 7's. I doubt he would reraise on a draw. Not with the amount of action going on and he should know he is not going to move anybody. So he's got a made hand already and wants the clubs out. The Button could be on AA KK AK, AQ of clubs. The only hands that could reraise at this point. I think your beat right now and unless you catch your 10 of hearts you could be in for a big loss even if you catch 10 of clubs. I wouldn't of lead out and bet either, I would of checked and if no one bet besides the button then I would of raised if someone else bet and button raises I would of folded. Hard to fold top pair on board, but in this case with the middle position raiser I think thats the move. | ||
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| Re: What would you do?, sfrancis, 15. Sep 2003 07:21 | ||
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| You raise an excellent point. Both in and out of hindsight, check-raising the flop may have been the better play. I mistakenly lead out because I thought I may have the best hand, if the button had raised with AK or AQ. Therefore, I wanted to know to know if the button would raise, which would indicate he's got at least an overpair. Of course, by check-raising, I risk a free card, but I believe the benefits would have outweighed the costs. In addition, by check-raising, the ace-high flush draw may not have check-reraised, although if he did that, the button would have reraised (cap), and I still would have folded, realizing at least two hands were serious. The negative would be if the flush draws called the check-raise, the button raises, I call, and the ace-high flush draw caps the betting. I would be forced to call, having put in $40 for 1 clean out. I believe this scenario would have occurred if I had check-raised. Even after spiking a ten (either) on the turn, I would have to pay to see the river (I would have odds to draw to full house) and avoid a number of river death cards. Of course, I have been daydreaming about showing up the ace-high flush, king-high flush, and the full house with the runner-runner. If I had check-raised, I would have received odds and taken down a monster pot. Then, I would have people muttering bad beat, although I would have had the best hand in every sequence save the flop. In addition, the button's reraise shows how important it is to play the nuts aggressively. After all, the extra $10 folded me out of a $500+ final pot. | ||
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| Re: What would you do?, Schuster, 15. Sep 2003 07:55 | ||
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| I disagree with a checkraise here. You have 4 opponents, and if the button was raising a hand like AK or AQ and it's checked to him, he may well take a free card. You can't afford to give anyone free cards in a raised pot with a big field; if you do and any card higher than a 10 comes off, you'll have no idea where you stand. Not to mention that if a club comes off, if no one has the flush already, then someone with the naked Ac now has a legitimate play for the pot, but he may have folded to your bet. I would have played the hand the same way you did. Lee | ||
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| Re: What would you do?, Roy Cooke, 15. Sep 2003 07:43 | ||
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| I would fold.....You are most likely beat and if you are beat you have few wins.....You only have two tens to improve your hand and one of them is a club (Making a three flush on the board)...If your hand is good (Unlikely)...there are still many ways in which you will lose the hand. Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke on 14. Sep 2003 20:45 sfrancis wrote: > Please analyze this situation. > > $10-$20. I am in the big blind with 10d 10s. EP calls. MP1 calls. MP2 > calls. Button raises. Everyone, including me, calls. Small blind falls. $105 > in the pot. > > Flop: 2c 4d 7c. > > I bet. Everyone calls and button raises. I call. EP calls. MP1 reraises. > MP2 calls. Button reraises (cap). $20 to me. At this point, there is $285 in > the pot. > > What would you do? > > I would like at least one unbiased response, so I will give my chain of logic, > what happened, and further questions after the first response. > > I am interested in the mathematical, long-run, poker theoretical, odds, etc. > evaluation of what i should do, namely call or fold. > > Thank you. | ||
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| Re: What would you do?, shorn, 15. Sep 2003 08:03 | ||
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| I would fold to the button's re-raise. This may be perceived as a weak play by others, but if you aren't behind yet, there are too many cards that can come that will either beat you, or if they don't, make you play the hand meekly not being able to maximize a winning situation. Any A-J and you have to shut down and fold. So, IMO you are drawing to two outs and only getting 14-1 isn't worth it. Couple that with the fact that if someone does hold the bigger pair in the pocket and you hit your Ten on the turn, they still have the river to re-draw on you and you can't be sure what overcard beats you. | ||
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