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Server Time: 11/20/2008 7:35:52 AM PACIFIC |
 question about odds, Eihli, 12. Sep 2003 15:33 | ||
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| I get 56o in the big blind. flop is 232 rainbow with $1.50 in the pot 2 people put in .50 before me to make it 2.50 on my decision to call I'm about 11:1 to hit my straight on the turn, so in order for me to call I would need to know that it will win me at least a 5.50 pot (11*.50). Is that correct? | ||
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| Re: question about odds, asnyder, 12. Sep 2003 16:26 | ||
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| on 12. Sep 2003 15:33 Eihli wrote: > I get 56o in the big blind. > > flop is 232 rainbow with $1.50 in the pot 2 people put in .50 before me to make it 2.50 on my decision to call I'm about 11:1 to hit my straight on the turn, so in order for me to call I would need to know that it will win me at least a 5.50 pot (11*.50). Is that correct? According to my math, you're closer to a 12:1 underdog (47/4= 11.75:1) to make your straight on the turn, that said you need at least $6 in the pot to make it a favorable call. Again, this only assumes the turn and doesn't consider the odds of catching a 4 on the river. If I'm incorrect, someone please correct me.... | ||
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| Re: question about odds, ADAM THE EXPERT, 12. Sep 2003 22:22 | ||
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| OK, two things that you have failed to consider. One, although you have correctly stated the odds of hitting the straight card on the turn, you must add the fact that you could already be drawing dead (except for a 356 to 1 runner runner 55, or 66). WHEN YOU ARE NOT DRAWING TO THE NUTS, YOU MUST HAVE GREATER POT AND OR IMPLIED ODDS, TO PAY FOR YOUR DRAW. Normally, We could pretty much discount this possibility, as in a good-size hold 'em game, limit or no limit, it is not very likely that anyone is going to play 33, 22, o 23s. But, in a game where it's only fifty cents to see the flop, very few are not going to put four bits into the pot, if they have one of these micro-hands. When you are on the defensive in hold em, as clearly you are here, you should think about how much you could LOSE. When you are on the OFFENSIVE, THEN you think about how much you can win. With only a fifty cent investment, do you REALLY want to lose your whole stack, if you make your hand, and run into three's full???!! Also, you must take into account, the (small) possibility that one of the other players, have the same hand as you, thus you are only shooting for half. THIS is of course, not too likely, but does exist as a possibllity, so must be added into the equation, if you want to be totally accurate. The next consideration is IMPLIED odds. Will the bettor or the caller put in more money, should you make your miricle GUTSHOT, and if so, how much? How big is your stack, against there's? Are they BAD enough to call 25-50 dollars, if you make your hand? if not, then you are not getting enough pot and implied odds to go for it. Also, you must next consider the possibility that they don't have a full house, YET, but that the very card that you need for your straight, makes them a fullus houseus!!! A definate possibility, as micro limit players, just LOVE a 43suited. Well, hopefully I have given you the glasses, to see that poker is a very complited subject, and you really need to put your thinking cap on!!!! | ||
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| Re: question about odds, cantfoldem, 12. Sep 2003 17:22 | ||
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| Fold PLUG THE LEAK | ||
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| Re: question about odds, Eihli, 12. Sep 2003 17:54 | ||
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| Don't worry, I folded. I was just wondering. | ||
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| Re: question about odds, flintsword, 12. Sep 2003 18:38 | ||
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| I am going to make some assumptions about the texture of your game and simplify the hell out of it, to make a different kind of point, but a point related to your odds drawing for an inside str8. I hope you like it and I pray my math holds up. I know this is low limit and this point is not oriented to low limit games, but the math applies to "better poker". The flop is down & you have two cards to come: the Turn & the River cards. You want a 4 to fall. The odds of "not making your str8" on the turn is 43/47. The odds of "not making your str8" on the river is 42/46. Therefore your odds of "not making your str8 after the turn & river have fallen is: (43/47)*(42/46) = 0.853. This means that your odds of making a str8 after the turn & the river is: 1 - 0.853 = 0.147 or about 7 to 1 odds. Assuming that you have a passive game & it is a $0.50/$1.00 game (we do not know, so I will guess) you will have to fire $0.50 into the pot after the flop, drop $1.00 into the pot on the turn, and deposit another $1.00 into the pot at the river-side. Your evaluation starts at the flop. Your total investment from now on (unless someone raises inbetween the flop, turn, & river!!) is going to be $2.50. The total pot you are going to win (unless someone drops out!) is going to be $1.50 + (3 x $0.50) + (3 x $1.00) + (3 x $1.00) = $9.00. Your $ odds are 3.6 to 1 so it is not a paying proposition on the surface. What this means is that if you go to the river seven times with this hand, on average you will invest (7 x $2.50) = $17.50 to make (1 x $9.00) = $9.00. It doesn't look very good, does it? Here is where it gets interesting. Read the Game Theory chapter of Theory of Poker. Let us assume that you "know" that both your opponents will collectively (together) fold 50% of all hands that are raised on the turn, what happens? This is a "new element" to take into consideration. You are "now" investing $3.50 to "now" make $12.00 (if they decide to go to the river with you). You are investing more and they fold on the turn half the time. They fold 50% of the time and you said you were last to act. How does the expectation that your opponents will fold half the time change the numbers? 50% of time they fold: $1.50 + (3 x $0.50) + (3 x $1.00) = $6.00 pot 50% of time no fold: $1.50 + (3 x $0.50) + (6 x $1.00) + (3 x $1.00) = $12.00 pot You win & no fold: $12.00 pot What this means is that if you try to go to the river with this raise on the turn thrown in, you will pay 3.5 x $3.00 when they fold and 3.5 x $3.50 when they do not fold. Your total investment over seven games, on average, will be (3.5 x $3.00) + (3.5 x $3.50) = $10.50 + $12.25 = $22.75 Your total take over seven games, on average, will be (3 x $6.00) + ($12.00) = $18.00 + $12.00 = $30.00 Hey! What happened? Now you are making money. The point to this incredibly lengthy post is to show the power and effect of a raise against opponents that you only need to know will fold half the time. A lot of observational and player-related odds enter the equation, ... and without turning into Einstein you can understand that the percentage effect of player behaviours can radically tilt the odds in your favour, ... even this strange drawing to an inside str8. I know I made a lot of assumptions and I hope I am not going to get shot down for a detail, but the importance of game theory in playing hands should not be underestimated. I hope the post proved useful and that it addresses your question in a way you were not expecting. My apologies again for the length. flintsword | ||
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| Re: question about odds, Eihli, 12. Sep 2003 19:48 | ||
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| Great post and makes me want to buy theory of poker. But, what if I only call the .50 bet to see the turn, then if I miss, I fold and lose .50. If I hit, then I win the 5.50+ dollars that I expect to be in the pot at the end. | ||
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| Re: question about odds, asnyder, 12. Sep 2003 20:43 | ||
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| on 12. Sep 2003 19:48 Eihli wrote: > Great post and makes me want to buy theory of poker. But, what if I only call the .50 bet to see the turn, then if I miss, I fold and lose .50. If I hit, then I win the 5.50+ dollars that I expect to be in the pot at the end. Yes you MAY hit but your not getting the odds, you have a -EV, there's not enough in the pot to warrant the call - based on those odds you can't expect to have a positive return. Theory of Poker is a must have (at some point) - I highly recommend overstock.com. | ||
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| Re: question about odds, Eihli, 12. Sep 2003 21:22 | ||
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| If that's not how it works, then what are implied odds? | ||
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| Re: question about odds, Roy Cooke, 14. Sep 2003 09:55 | ||
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| Hi Eihli You must AVERAGE winning $5.50 (strange from the point of decision...strange money DOES include your money already in the pot)everytime you win the pot for the call to be neutral......This board is paired and the propensity for you to make your hand and still lose is greater on paired boards (and suited boards)....You must extend your odds proportionately if you can make your hand and still not win the pot! Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke on 12. Sep 2003 15:33 Eihli wrote: > I get 56o in the big blind. > > flop is 232 rainbow with $1.50 in the pot > 2 people put in .50 before me to make it 2.50 on my decision to call > I'm about 11:1 to hit my straight on the turn, so in order for me to call I > would need to know that it will win me at least a 5.50 pot (11*.50). Is that > correct? | ||
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| Re: question about odds, ADAM THE EXPERT, 21. Sep 2003 00:09 | ||
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| Hello, HELLO I gave you the most correct and detailed answer you can ever EVER expect to get, so please don't insult Adam the Expert, by asking this question again. My current win rate, on the internet, is just over one hundred dollars per hour, per game. So, if I donate my time to answer you, YOU NEED not ask again. Most professionals, at my win rate, would NOT spend the time to give such a detailed answer. cocky, yes. Arrogent, EXTREMELY Accurate in my responses, EVEN MORE SO. I CRAVE FRESH QUESTIONS | ||
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