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Server Time: 11/20/2008 4:44:04 AM PACIFIC |
 calling with anything in big pots?, Lottery Larry, 12. Sep 2003 05:51 | ||
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| i was not sure if this was the correct play or not. seven people cap preflop. you are in the big blind with 5 and 4 of diamonds. the flop is K 8 3 with one diamond. the under the gun player bets, all call to you. there are now 39 bets in the pot. should you call here with a backdoor straight, backdoor flush and draws to three-of-a-kind? if yes- is there any hand that you should NOT call with in this situation? what are the odds of being beaten if you catch your runner-runner flush? how about the straight? or your trips? are the odds of winning with trips much greater if it was runner-runner, than if you matched one of the flop cards? if no- would you call with any lower pocket pair here- as in Queens or lower? higher suited cards that aren't the best or second-best draw? do you automatically call if you pair with the board? LL | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, shorn, 12. Sep 2003 06:11 | ||
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| Well, I wouldn't have called 54s for 4-bets pre-flop, but I guess that is another story. I would not call even with 39 bets in the pot. You need two cards to win, and I don't think you can count the flush as a legitimate out because your cards are too low. I would think, 44, 55 or 26 would win you the pot (67 might not, so I wouldn't count that). So, here are the combined odds of those coming: 44 or 55:( (3/47) * (2/46) ) *2 = 0.55% 26: (4/47) * (4/46) = 0.74% In total, you have a 1.3% chance of improving to one of these hands. So, you would need 76.9 bets in the pot to make a call correct. This also assumes that both the two an the 6 that come aren't diamonds, but regardless of that I think you get the picture. This is an absolute CLEAR fold. What would I call with? QQ-99 obviously (23.5 to 1 to make your set on the turn), but most likely not the other low pairs. You have to at least fear someone holding KK because they certainly would be aiting until the turn to define their hand. Therefore, I would most likely fold 77-22 because you eliminate the chance that you are against the 88 set and can't win even if you hit. This is debatable though because the odds are so high. I might peel one off with any pair and then wait to see if someone represents the set of Kings. Steve | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, Lottery Larry, 15. Sep 2003 07:32 | ||
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| this is posted in Not Quite Poker by someone- i copied it here for you shorn. --------- I believe (please correct me if I'm wrong here) that Shorn incorectly calculated the odds of Lottery Larry winning the hand in question in a previous post. I would like to re-examine and see if maybe he should have stayed around. He had 4-5 of diamonds and the flop came K-8-3 (one diamond). Now, the consensus here is to fold. Here's my reasoning to give it a shot (basis= 39 bets in the pot). Lets assume that the following turn and river would give him a winning hand: 6-7 (sure, someone could have a higher straight, but that would mean that they would have had to call after the flop with 9-10 or 9-5. The latter probably wouldn't even be in the hand. The former would fold based on your reasoning of folding 5-4. Pretty much drawing at the same thing. A-2, 2-6, 4-4, 5-5, and 4-5. I'm going to say 2 pair could take this hand because to hit two pair and lose another player would have to play on k-5, k-4, 8-5, or 8-4. Very unlikely someone would enter a hand with K-5 or K-4 (when capped) but this is online and we know some of the opponents we are up against. In addition a 5-4 would give A-2 a straight and 6-7 a straight. 6-7 wouldn't still be in because he is in the same boat as Larry and all the experts say to fold. A-2 could still be in. I still take my chances he isn't or the hand doesn't exist. Any 2 diamonds. Who else would stick around with two diamonds after only getting one on the flop? Probably the one with the ace, only because he has the overcard. I'd take my chances there. The A-x suited would have to exist and that player would have to call knowing he is no longer the favorite (although he still has pot odds). So, that being said, the following turn cards would give him reason to see the river: Ace (4) ,2 (4),4 (3),5(3),6(4),7(4), and the remaining 6 diamonds for a total of 28 cards of 47 remaining. That right there would give me reason to see the turn for one flop. Any average poker player should be able to figure their odds of finishing should they hit on the turn. In addition, should the A,2,6,or 7 of diamonds (16/47) fall on the turn he has 17 cards of 46 to give him a straight or flush after the river. Right there he has a 1:8 chance of doing just what I mentioned. A step further. Hitting either A-2 (1.48%), 2-6 (1.48%), 6-7 (1.48%), 5-5 (.0055%), 4-4 (.00555) would most likely yield the best hand. Using those as only his outs he has a 4.45% chance of winning. With 39 bets in the pot he is getting pot odds, isn't he? That doesn't take into account that hitting may give someone else a flush, or the fact that his trips could lose to somebodys higher trips. It also doesn't take into account the fact that he could hit running 2 pair (4's and 5's) or 2 diamonds to win. Let me know what you guys think. Thanks. Please let me know what you think. | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, Lottery Larry, 15. Sep 2003 07:35 | ||
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| a couple of questions of my own to add: is 7 and 6 of diamonds a better hand here than 54, especially with the 8 on the flop? is K and small card suited worth drawing to, given top pair? wouldn't ten-nine have a reasonable chance of winning if they catch one pair, while 54 wouldn't? | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, shorn, 15. Sep 2003 11:44 | ||
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| The hand analysis that you put out is fine. It is the "what can come" to win you the pot part that I disagree with. IMO, an Ace coming kills your hand for sure (especially on the turn) because with 7 players capped pre-flop, SOMEONE will have AK. Also, someone might have AA and thenyou are dead to the 2. Also, how many aces do you think are left in the deck with 7 players capping?? At best there is one left over. I also do not think that 54 coming turn river (two pair) will be good. You most certainly have to hit three of a kind (which incidentally might not be good either if someone holds KK which is a distinct possibility) or the nut straight to win this hand. So, at best you have a 2% chance of winning with either of those outcomes, needing 50-1 in the pot to call. The key to this question is what the heck everyone else could have in 7-way capped action pre-flop? With that much action preflop and a King on the flop, I personally want better than the actual odds of hitting my hand to continue. | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, Jav, 12. Sep 2003 10:07 | ||
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| I think you should lay that hand down pre-flop. With that many people in the hand with capped betting, I would be afraid that my flush wouldn't be good if I hit it. And that's just too much money to invest pre-flop for the chance of hitting your straight or trips. | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, LJH, 12. Sep 2003 11:06 | ||
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| LOTTERY LARRY, I THINK YOU HAD NO BUSINESS IN THE POT FROM THE BEGINNING. OF COURSE SNCE YOU LOVE TOGAMBLE, TO WIT YOUR NAME THEN ANYTHING GOES. I WOULD LOVE TO BE IN YOUR GAME FOR AT LEAST 100 YEARS. LJH | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, 4 POKER, 12. Sep 2003 23:26 | ||
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| Hey Lottery Larry, I'm curious here......did you actually hit the lottery or is that just your name for fun? Calling cap bets preflop with 5-4 suited?.......Wow......you must have hit the lottery Big Time! (just kidding). But to answer your Q, no I wouldn't take a card off with 5-4 when the board reads K-8-3. The amount of bets that are in the pot still wouldn't justify a call by you because imo, that would just be compounding the mistakes even further. You'd have to hit "perfect perfect" to win by completing the straight because I really don't think you would be able to count on your flush being any good, if you happened to hit runner, runner diamonds. Keep in mind, if you DO hit a running straight......the board would have to be "perfectly clean" as to not have *any* running flush cards on it, especially with 7 way action! You asked if there would be a hand that you *would not* call a bet with on the flop, (being there was all those bets in there now), and I think I would have to say, yeah.....the hand that you were holding! (sorry).....just my opinion. 4P- | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, Lottery Larry, 14. Sep 2003 17:44 | ||
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| on 12. Sep 2003 23:26 4 POKER wrote: > Hey Lottery Larry, > > I'm curious here......did you actually hit the lottery or is that just your name for fun? Calling cap bets preflop with 5-4 suited?.......Wow......you must have hit the > lottery Big Time! (just kidding). called a raise in the BB, then two more came and everyone called, so i called. > > But to answer your Q, no I wouldn't take a card off with 5-4 when the board reads > K-8-3. The amount of bets that are in the pot still wouldn't justify a call by you > because imo, that would just be compounding the mistakes even further. i did check and fold by the way. > You'd have to > hit "perfect perfect" to win by completing the straight because I really don't think > you would be able to count on your flush being any good, if you happened to hit > runner, runner diamonds. what about three-of-a-kind runner-runner? that would have been my winning hand if i'd stuck around believe it or not > You asked if there would be a hand that you *would not* call a bet with on the flop, > (being there was all those bets in there now), and I think I would have to say, > yeah.....the hand that you were holding! (sorry).....just my opinion. > why be sorry? i didn't post in order to worry about my feelings getting hurt. what long-shot, lower hands would you call with in this situation, if any? | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, 4 POKER, 14. Sep 2003 21:15 | ||
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| Hi, You asked about, "what about three of a kind, runner, runner"? My answer would still be no, no matter what the outcome may have been. You stated that you called one raise in the BB, and called two more. With that much money in the pot, I would have called as well. But I would not put any more money into the pot when the flop comes up the way it did, and I see that you handled it the same way. But don't think that just because the turn and river came with two runnung fives, that that would make your call any more correct on the flop, because imo, it would not. You knew exactly what you wanted to hit there on the flop with your 5-4 suited, and it just didn't come favorably enough for you to continue any further, and "that' is why you folded, I'm sure. It's just too much of a longshot imo to even think about calling there, not to mention, if you 'do' hit a 5 on the turn, how much heat could you possibly take on the turn if now it's another capped bet to you?.......you couldn't, as that would be compounding errors even more. (another reason why you folded I'm sure). You asked about, "what other type of longshot hands would one call with given that particular situation", and to be honest with you Larry.....right now, I can't think of one; let me think about some more.......... 4P- | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, Schuster, 14. Sep 2003 22:09 | ||
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| I'm not sure I agree, Dave. 39 to 1 is a humongous overlay, and as long as you have a sufficient bankroll, you have to take a few longshot draws when the odds warrant it. Given that the board is so uncoordinated, and he is closing the action for that round, I think he has to take a card off here. A backdoor flush draw is only about 23 to 1. He also has a backdoor straight draw. If he misses it on the turn, he has lost very little in comparison to what he could have won. I would take a card off here. Lee | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, 4 POKER, 14. Sep 2003 22:37 | ||
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| on 14. Sep 2003 22:09 Schuster wrote: > I'm not sure I agree, Dave. 39 to 1 is a humongous overlay, and as long as you have a sufficient > bankroll, you have to take a few longshot draws when the odds warrant it. Given that the board is > so uncoordinated, and he is closing the action for that round, I think he has to take a card off > here. A backdoor flush draw is only about 23 to 1. He also has a backdoor straight draw. If he > misses it on the turn, he has lost very little in comparison to what he could have won. I would > take a card off here. > > Lee Hey Lee, I just re-read his post again. I thought (for some reason) that the pot was capped on the flop, after he had checked it. So okay, it's only one small bet here to him, which may make it correct for him to call one bet and see if he can connect to a straight card, but....let me ask you a question. IF the turn brings a straight draw for him, how many big bets would you put in to the pot now? If you check it, and it comes back to you for a capped bet, would you draw to hit it? What about if a flush card hits for you; would you feel comfortable enough calling multiple big bets to draw to a 5 high flush? Or would you see how the action takes place 'then', and then make your decision based on that. He also spoke of "running fives", which would have won him the hand (as that is what actually happened); would you make that call on the turn as well? If so, how many calls would you be willing to make with third pair? Just curious, this is an interesting thread. Dave | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, Schuster, 14. Sep 2003 23:01 | ||
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| I really think it depends on the straight card that comes. When the turn card is dealt, there's 20 big bets in the pot. If the turn is a 2, any straight he hits is going to be the nut straight. Even if the 2 gives someone a flush draw, he still has 6 clean outs, and with a 20 big bet pot, he can stand a lot of heat. If the turn is a 6, he only has 1 nut card and 1 card that gives him the ignorant end of the 6-7-8 straight. Still, 20 to 1 is quite a bit of overlay. If it's an ace giving him the gutshot, I would call 2 bets only if the action closed with me or I was *very* confident that the original bettor would not make it 3 bets. If he hits a 7 for a gutshot, I may play, I may not, it depends on how the action goes. I would be very hestitant to put a bet in if I thought it might get raised behind me. As far as backdooring the flush, I would not feel too great about my 5 high flush, but when the overlay is that good, I think you have to play. True, someone may have the higher flush and you should extend your odds, but he is in early position which means he can check and have a good idea of how the action will develop when it gets back to him. Even if it is 3 bets to him cold, he's getting about 9 to 1 to draw. If it's 4 bets to him cold, he's still getting better than 5 to 1. It's a tough call, and I'm not sure I'd make it, it would really depend on my opponents. If the turn was a 4 or a 5, I would take a card off for 1 bet, but no more. Unless someone has a set, you're still alive and the pot is huge. Take the longshot. In general, I really wouldn't have a specific plan of action for the turn if I did hit a "good" card, it would really depend on how the action went on 4th. I like that the UTG player is leading the flop though. If he leads the turn, then he will have a very good idea of how things will develop when it gets back to him and he can react accordingly. Lee | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, 4 POKER, 14. Sep 2003 23:42 | ||
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| Thanks Lee. I like the way you think:) Dave | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, Lottery Larry, 15. Sep 2003 07:28 | ||
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| the question that i had when i saw what the flop was- is it worth drawing to a runner-runner and do the odds of actually winning match up? i cannot figure the odds of catching various options- three-of-a-kind, nut straight, other straight, flush- AND the odds that they would be the winning hand against 6 others, as one combined figure to compare to the 39:1 pot odds, while also including implied costs and odds from going to the river. as 4Poker said, is the money they to stand any heat on the turn in order to get to the river, since i have to catch twice to have any chance at a winning hand? can anyone do the calculations to say approximately what the combined odds of catching hands that win are (the flush especially seems weak) so we could speak with more authority on how close a call on the flop would be? another twist- does it matter which card is the diamond on the flop? certainly if the 3 is suited you add a draw to the nut straight flushes. does your call for flush considerations get better or worse from a strategy sense if the 8 vs. the King is the suited card? ignore the straight flush possibility when answering. maybe we can talk about compounding errors in another thread- or whether small suited connectors should call two more raises when already in for two small bets when there will not be any more action preflop. | ||
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| Re: calling with anything in big pots?, osucbj04, 15. Sep 2003 12:01 | ||
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| In a hand like that it is really hard to figure all of your odds out in your time frame; infact it may be nearly impossible considering you have so many different ways this hand could take you. What I do is quickly think of what cards on the turn would make me stay until the river. In your case it was more than half (A,2,4,5,6,7, any diamond). Then, once that card came (if it didn't simply fold) calculating the odds is much easier. | ||
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