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Server Time: 11/20/2008 8:16:13 AM PACIFIC |
 How could he call?, 3Kings, 10. Sep 2003 23:13 | ||
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| Pot Limit HE Tourny There are 7 left with top 5 getting the money. I have 6300 utg. Blinds are 2k-4k. I get the Ac9c and go all in. Everyone folds except the SB blind who calls. He gets his pair, I don't. He wins the hand and I am out. What pair did he get you ask? He called me with 5c2c and caught a 2. I could see him make this move if he was first one in and trying to steal the blinds (he was second in chips with about 44k). But, even if you have chips to spare, why call and risk giving them to a short stack? Would anyone have made that call? | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, chasepoker, 11. Sep 2003 04:25 | ||
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| If we do the math you find it is probably a good call and one that i may have made. Blinds 2000 + 4000 and also you bet of 6300 = 12600 He has to call 4300 more giving him pot odds of aprox 3:1 So you need to ask yourself what hands do you have to have to make the call by him incorrect ? The answer is a pocket pair 55 or above ! This conclusion is based on the following being true You have AA-66 chances of him winning are aprox 20% Any 2 cards that are not a pair above a 5 ( which is most likely for you to have ) the chances of him winning rise to 40% Even a hand like A5 he is still a 25% chance to win ( so getting the right price on his call) So whilst it may seem a poor call ( surely a 5 2 can not win ! ) unless the small blind is going to get involved he is clearly getting the right price on the call as the chances of you having a pair 6 or above are probably about 1:20 and he knows you are probably going all in with any 2 high cards ( as you are virtually all in next hand ) In this example i may have even made a small raise to knock out the BB and get heads up with you. It is situations like this which i believe you have to take if you are going to win tournaments ! I think this just goes to illustrate that in tournament Hold Em you do have to make some calls with some hands that you would not play in any position ever, based purely on the pot odds and the chance to knock out a small stack at the same time Chasepoker PS Someone may want to take a look at the maths as it is only approximations i dont claim to be a maths wizz but i think they are close enough to illustrate a point ! | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, shorn, 11. Sep 2003 05:28 | ||
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| Chase- This is a great analysis. These are the kinds of situations that I need to work on recognizing to improve my NL tourny game. Thanks. Steve | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, 3Kings, 11. Sep 2003 06:28 | ||
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| I disagree with your assessment that he will win 25% of the time. He will flop a pair about 30% of the time. I will also flop a pair 30 % of the time. That means even if he does flop a pair 3 out of 10 times, then I will outflop him about 30% of the time. That drops his win to about 21% which is 4 to 1. The flush doesn't come into play unless it is a straight flush as we both had two clubs. He does have straight possibilities which will increase his win percentage. Even if does flop a pair, I have a chance at the board containing two pair above 5s. Also, he would have to worry that the BB who also short stacked (about 9000) might call getting 8 to 1 and most likely go all-in thereby costing the SB 3000 more. I understand what you are saying with pot odds but 5 high just doesn't sound like a hand to get invovled with any time let alone in the late stages of a tournament unless it is a steal attempt. | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, 3Kings, 11. Sep 2003 06:28 | ||
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| I disagree with your assessment that he will win 25% of the time. He will flop a pair about 30% of the time. I will also flop a pair 30 % of the time. That means even if he does flop a pair 3 out of 10 times, then I will outflop him about 30% of the time. That drops his win to about 21% which is 4 to 1. The flush doesn't come into play unless it is a straight flush as we both had two clubs. He does have straight possibilities which will increase his win percentage. Even if does flop a pair, I have a chance at the board containing two pair above 5s. Also, he would have to worry that the BB who also short stacked (about 9000) might call getting 8 to 1 and most likely go all-in thereby costing the SB 3000 more. I understand what you are saying with pot odds but 5 high just doesn't sound like a hand to get invovled with any time let alone in the late stages of a tournament unless it is a steal attempt. | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, chasepoker, 11. Sep 2003 07:21 | ||
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| I realise what you say about the BB but it appeared that he did not want to get involved but with 2 callers he isnt going to risk knocking himself out of the tournament wiht anything but a premium hand. As for your Ac9c vs 5c2c according to http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=5c+2c%0D%0Aac+9c It says your hand is a 65% favourite to win which makes his call an easy one even if he could see your hand before he made his decision ! That said i will admit i do play a very high risk ( though i believe maximum earn ) game i will push most of my edges as long as i am not risking serious damage to my stack and i think this siutation to be good enough to warrant playing ! It could just be a dfffering style of play but i would call you here if you had shown me AKc (65% fgavourite) ! The nature of all ins in hold em tournments is very tricky to balance between not being too tight and taking the correct pot odds at any given time! Cheers Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, 3Kings, 11. Sep 2003 07:31 | ||
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| I beleive you know. I'm originally from Missouri, so you have to "Show Me". ] Thanks for listing the website you ran the hands on. I added it to my favorites and it should come in very handy. | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, LJH, 11. Sep 2003 10:16 | ||
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| CHASE, I'D LIKE TO PLAY IN YOUR GAME FOR 100 YEARS. LJH | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, chasepoker, 11. Sep 2003 12:19 | ||
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| Feel free LJH Wednesday night UPF UB game. Just out of intrest LJH which part of my anlysis do you not agree with and how would you play it and what is your reasoning for doing so ? Do you feel that the odds of 3:1 on a probable 60:40 shot are not good enough ? Cheers CP on 11. Sep 2003 10:16 LJH wrote: > CHASE, I'D LIKE TO PLAY IN YOUR GAME FOR 100 YEARS. LJH | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, Schuster, 11. Sep 2003 07:44 | ||
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| I think he only has to call 2300 more, not 4300, no? He's already blind for 4000. It's an easy call either way. If it's only 2300, he's getting over 4 to 1 on his money. In fact, only if you have aces is he making a -EV play by calling, and even so, it's very very marginally -EV by about 1%. As long as he is not taking a big dent out of his stack, he really has to call here. Lee | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, chasepoker, 11. Sep 2003 09:00 | ||
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| I think the caller was in the SB if it was the BB there is no hand in the world i wouldn not call with in that situation ! on 11. Sep 2003 07:44 Schuster wrote: > I think he only has to call 2300 more, not 4300, no? He's already blind for 4000. It's > an easy call either way. If it's only 2300, he's getting over 4 to 1 on his money. In > fact, only if you have aces is he making a -EV play by calling, and even so, it's very > very marginally -EV by about 1%. As long as he is not taking a big dent out of his stack, > he really has to call here. > > Lee > Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, Schuster, 11. Sep 2003 09:06 | ||
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| Yep, my bad, misread it. I'm surprised the big blind didn't call also. You'd figure they would both check it down and the big blind is getting huge odds on his money. Good analysis up above, Chase! Lee | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, LJH, 11. Sep 2003 10:13 | ||
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| 3KINGS, IN THE LONG RUN WITH PLAYERS LIKE THAT YOU WILL WIN MILLIONS. LJH | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, Jav, 11. Sep 2003 10:20 | ||
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| I wouldn't have made that call, but I wouldn't have made that bet either. I take it back, with the blinds that big I probably would make that bet! | ||
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| Re: How could he call?, NiceFella, 17. Sep 2003 00:44 | ||
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| There are a number of good reasons to call you here: First, you are an extremely short stack, and since you are UTG it is obvious to everyone that you will be going all-in with almost anything, such as J high. Second, as has been well demonstrated by chasepoker, the SB is getting decent pot odds on this call even if you actually have a hand. Finally, there is the "take a shot at eliminating the short stack" factor which I see all the time in tournaments. As you explained, after two more players are eliminated, the remaining players get paid. As the short stack under the gun, you are everyone's #1 target. ** Eliminating you from the tournament is everyone's main goal at this time. ** There is no way the table is going to let you steal the blinds. It's a form of tacit collusion: SOMEONE at the table is going to call you, regardless of their cards. After you go all-in they're all looking at eachother, hoping to identify their representative to fight you, praying someone caught a big hand to take you down. Sadly for them, none of them had a hand, and they were forced to leave it to the blinds. If one of the blinds didn't call you, I'd be rather annoyed if I was at the table. Let's look at the possible outcomes for the hand: Case 1: SB folds. In this case, you double up instantly without any resistance. You survive to see a half dozen more hands, possibly getting lucky and becoming a threat. Case 2: SB calls, and loses to you. In this case, you do marginally better than doubling up, and the SB loses 10% of his stack. Practically speaking, this is hardly any worse than case 1. In this sense, SB really has very little to lose in calling vs. folding. Case 3: SB Calls and wins. Bonanza! You've been eliminated from the tournament, SB's stack grows by 25%, and everyone at the table is one step closer to getting paid. Remember that when you're close to the bubble, pot odds discussion is a little warped. Tournament chips only have value if you make it to a paying position. 10% of your stack is a small price to pay to eliminate half the players between you and the money. What's surprising to me is that the big blind did not get in on this. It's common for multiple players to call a short stack, then check it all the way to the end. This maximizes the chances of eliminating the short stack. However it does sound like the SB was a savvy, aggressive player, and the BB might have thought it wiser just to stay out of the way. Am I correct in guessing that the BB was also somewhat short-stacked? NiceFella | ||
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