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Server Time: 3/12/2010 3:17:31 PM PACIFIC |
 An odds / outs question, endif, 10. Sep 2003 08:08 | ||
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| I picked up a little book from Gambler's Bookshop (http://www.gamblersbook.com/) called "Flop: The art of winning at low-limit hold 'em". In the book is a chart of "card odds (for one)" per "# outs (twice)". For one out, it shows 23.5, for 8 outs 3.2, etc. These numbers are exactly one more that what I would expect -- if the probability of drawing 1 of eight cards out of 47, then 46 cards is 31.5%, then wdn't the odds be (100 - 31.5)/31.5, or 2.2-to-1, and not 3.2-to-1? I don't know if this is related or not, but when talking about pot odds: with $128 in the pot, and $8 to call, the author says the pot odds are 17-to-1, not 16-to-1 ( the math I think is if there are 16 bets in the pot, then the pot odds wd be 16-to-1, not 17-to-1, correct? You don't add your bet into the pot before calculating the odds do you? Okay my head is spinning. Any insight will be appreciated. BTW, numbers aside, I enjoyed the book. e | ||
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| Re: An odds / outs question, shorn, 10. Sep 2003 08:19 | ||
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| Be careful using the odds he shows. This assumes that you will only have to call 1 bet to get BOTH shots at it (turn and river). Often, that is not the case. I like to calculate "pot" odds on the spot of my decision and not assume that if I call this bet and don't hit, I will get the next card for free. You also have to take into account your relative position ot other players, i.e, is anyone behind you left to act yet or not. If the answer is yes, this can dramatically affect your actual odds. As for your question, I think the author means that there is $128 already in the pot and someone else has bet $8. So, YOUR odds are $136 to $8 or 17-1. | ||
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| Re: An odds / outs question, endif, 10. Sep 2003 09:03 | ||
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| Thanks for the response. So I'm clear -- if the pot has 10 bets in it, _before_ my bet, then the pot odds are 10-to-1? And your worthwhile warning re: guessing/hoping ahead to the river notwithstanding, the card odds w/ 8 outs and two cards to draw wd be 2.2-to-1, and not 3.2-to-1? e on 10. Sep 2003 08:19 shorn wrote: > Be careful using the odds he shows. This assumes that you will only have to call 1 > bet to get BOTH shots at it (turn and river). Often, that is not the case. I like > to calculate "pot" odds on the spot of my decision and not assume that if I call this > bet and don't hit, I will get the next card for free. You also have to take into > account your relative position ot other players, i.e, is anyone behind you left to > act yet or not. If the answer is yes, this can dramatically affect your actual > odds. > > As for your question, I think the author means that there is $128 already in the pot > and someone else has bet $8. So, YOUR odds are $136 to $8 or 17-1. | ||
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| Re: An odds / outs question, shorn, 10. Sep 2003 09:33 | ||
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| Yes, 10-1 is correct. My point on guessing/hoping had more to do with the fact that you can't assume that this one call will get you both cards and apply those odds. Here is how I would do it: 8 outs to the nuts is about a 5-1 shot on both the flop and turn (39/8 = 4.875 to 1 or 20.51% chance of hitting; 38/8 = 4.75 to 1 or 21.05% chance of hitting). So, in order for me to call, I want 5 small bets IN THE POT on the flop to continue. If I miss on the turn card, then I look at the odds again and re-evaluate. This also applies only when I am last to act. If there are others to act after me, then I need to take into consideration what they may do to my odds (fold, raise, or call) before I throw the chips in. One other thing is that if you are drawing to a str8 and there are two flush cards on the flop, you really only have 6 "clean" outs since two of your str8 outs may make someone a flush. So, you need to take that into account and adjust the pot odds that you need to call upward (meaning you need more than 5 bets in the pot to get correct odds...more like 7 bets). Similar things apply to a paired board where someone could make a full house. Hope this helps. Steve | ||
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| Re: An odds / outs question, endif, 10. Sep 2003 09:43 | ||
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| Yes very much. Thanks! e on 10. Sep 2003 09:33 shorn wrote: > Yes, 10-1 is correct. > > My point on guessing/hoping had more to do with the fact that you can't assume that this one > call will get you both cards and apply those odds. Here is how I would do it: > > 8 outs to the nuts is about a 5-1 shot on both the flop and turn (39/8 = 4.875 to 1 or 20.51% > chance of hitting; 38/8 = 4.75 to 1 or 21.05% chance of hitting). So, in order for me to call, > I want 5 small bets IN THE POT on the flop to continue. If I miss on the turn card, then I > look at the odds again and re-evaluate. This also applies only when I am last to act. If > there are others to act after me, then I need to take into consideration what they may do to my > odds (fold, raise, or call) before I throw the chips in. > > One other thing is that if you are drawing to a str8 and there are two flush cards on the > flop, you really only have 6 "clean" outs since two of your str8 outs may make someone a flush. > So, you need to take that into account and adjust the pot odds that you need to call upward > (meaning you need more than 5 bets in the pot to get correct odds...more like 7 bets). Similar > things apply to a paired board where someone could make a full house. > > Hope this helps. > > Steve | ||
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