UPF - since i'm a glutton for punishment...

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since i'm a glutton for punishment..., EC, 9. Sep 2003 22:38
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...I'll do what gluttons do, come back for more. Here's the hand that knocked me out tonight at Hollywood Park's NL Tourney. First some texture, as Roy would say. Table had been crazy wild before the break, much more than usual. Two players got busted out/quit before the break, something I had never seen, and 3 or 4 more almost instantly after the break. Lots of all in bets getting called by garbage. Didn't change too much after the break, but of course still got tighter. Regardless, it wasn't terribly tight. So...I have a medium stack (about 3000), blinds are 50/100 (it's still early). I'm in late/middle, first to act so I bet 300 with JTo. Basically a semi-bluff steal bet, but I wouldn't mind playing it for 300. Button and both blinds call. Flop comes down TT9 with 2 clubs (my Jack is a club). Yay! Not quite. Blinds check, I decide I want to test the waters and trap if possible, so I only bet 100. Button raises it to 500 (his stack virtually equal to mine), SB folds and BB calls. I read the BB for either a 9 or a draw, he was by far the chip leader and had been aggressive, so his flat call indicated he wasn't that strong. As for the button, I'm pretty confident he doesn't have a monster like 99 since he would have called my bet to try to keep the blinds in, so I'm hoping he either has one 9 or a T with a lower kicker, I'm really only worried about him having a T with a Q, K or A. So I go all in, he thinks about it and calls. BB folds. One other thing- I didn't know much about the button as a player since he was fairly new, but as a whole the table tended to respect my raises and he seemed to do the same when he didn't reraise me pre-flop. I'm sure you know how this ends, he shows me AT, I go home (despite my hopes getting higher when I make an open ended straight draw on the turn). So what do you think? Was this a chance worth taking? Winning it would have made me chip leader (or at least tied for it), so I felt pretty good about it at the time... Thanks Eli
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" so I'm hoping ", Easy E, 10. Sep 2003 06:03
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not a good thing.
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Re: " so I'm hoping ", EC, 10. Sep 2003 08:18
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I'll be sure to look at my figures of speech more closely so as to not inspire others to split hairs. Thanks Eli on 10. Sep 2003 06:03 Easy E wrote: > not a good thing.
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Re: " so I'm hoping ", Easy E, 10. Sep 2003 08:30
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heh hee- touche... but I actually had a serious point. When you start hoping that someone has a particular hand, and you're basing your strategy/moves on that, especially EARLY in the hand, a big fat warning signal should start screaming and you should re-evaluate what it is you are doing with that hand. Hopefully this now qualifies as a fuller haircut, rather than a split hair, for you.
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Re: since i'm a glutton for punishment..., Mark, 10. Sep 2003 08:49
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That is a tough situation to play. However, why would you only bet 100 "to test the waters" and then go all-in. By betting 100, you open yourself up to bluffs as well as legitimate raises. You probably already know that if you're willing to call all-in, you should probably make the all-in bet. A much better way to play the hand would have been to make a big bet, T500 to Tpot. Then you make a decision depending on what the button does. The button would have obviously called or reraised. If he called i would be worried about my kicker or a draw, and if he rerasied i would probably lay it down. You made a small bet that wouldn't really gather you that much information, and the info you did gather you didn't use: "I'm really only worried about him having a T with a Q, K or A. So I go all in" Did you really think he would lay down a 10 with a K or A kicker? You figured you were beat, and pushed your entire stack into the middle? you must see the error in this. Because of your position, open raise and small flop bet, you're opponent wouldn't put you on a 9,10. From your betting, it looks like you have an over pair or overcards (more likely) and are scared. So if he does have a high kicker, he probably figures it to be good and won't lay it down. Although your read was good, you didn't act on it correctly. You only thought about what he had, and not what he should think you have. From his perspective, he was very much right to call you with trips and an ace kicker. Mark > ...I'll do what gluttons do, come back for more. > > Here's the hand that knocked me out tonight at Hollywood Park's NL Tourney. > > First some texture, as Roy would say. Table had been crazy wild before the > break, much more than usual. Two players got busted out/quit before the break, > something I had never seen, and 3 or 4 more almost instantly after the break. > Lots of all in bets getting called by garbage. Didn't change too much after the > break, but of course still got tighter. Regardless, it wasn't terribly tight. > > So...I have a medium stack (about 3000), blinds are 50/100 (it's still early). > I'm in late/middle, first to act so I bet 300 with JTo. Basically a semi-bluff > steal bet, but I wouldn't mind playing it for 300. Button and both blinds > call. > > Flop comes down TT9 with 2 clubs (my Jack is a club). Yay! Not quite. Blinds > check, I decide I want to test the waters and trap if possible, so I only bet > 100. Button raises it to 500 (his stack virtually equal to mine), SB folds and > BB calls. I read the BB for either a 9 or a draw, he was by far the chip leader > and had been aggressive, so his flat call indicated he wasn't that strong. As > for the button, I'm pretty confident he doesn't have a monster like 99 since he > would have called my bet to try to keep the blinds in, so I'm hoping he either > has one 9 or a T with a lower kicker, I'm really only worried about him having a > T with a Q, K or A. So I go all in, he thinks about it and calls. BB folds. > > One other thing- I didn't know much about the button as a player since he was > fairly new, but as a whole the table tended to respect my raises and he seemed > to do the same when he didn't reraise me pre-flop. > > I'm sure you know how this ends, he shows me AT, I go home (despite my hopes > getting higher when I make an open ended straight draw on the turn). > > So what do you think? Was this a chance worth taking? Winning it would have > made me chip leader (or at least tied for it), so I felt pretty good about it at > the time... > > > Thanks > > Eli
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Re: since i'm a glutton for punishment..., noiseboy, 10. Sep 2003 09:30
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When it's folded around to you, you don't really need much of a hand to raise, so I won't criticize your preflop bet. Just remember when you make that play that it is basically a pure bluff. I would like the play better if it were suited, giving you one more way to make a winning hand (although you have to be careful with the flush, because obviously it can break you if someone else has the suit). When I flop the two ten's, I don't like my kicker much, so although I think I might have the best hand, I would generally try to play a small pot. If someone comes out swinging with huge bets, the best I can hope for is a split with someone else having JT, although the hands you fear are more likely. I might give some action to a player who likes to bluff a lot, to see if I can get a read, because I know that sometimes I'll bet a flop like that when I have nada, if I'm fairly certain my opponent missed it too. All in all, it's a very dangerous situation because you are likely to have the best hand, but how can you be sure you are not throwing your chips down a bottomless well?
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Re: since i'm a glutton for punishment..., EC, 10. Sep 2003 11:49
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A couple points to clarify. I didn't figure I was beat at all, I was trying to trap (bad idea with the kicker problem, clearly). The only two hands I felt the button could have that would beat me were AT or 99. I didn't think he would call my pre-flop raise with T9, QT or KT. I thought it more likely that he had a pocket pair, possibly JJ or QQ, or something like A9. I ruled out 99 when he raised my flop bet (he wouldn't want to push out the first two checkers- how's my reasoning on this?) How he read my small flop bet...I don't know and clearly this was a problem. I would never expect him to lay down AT, I just didn't expect him to have it (based on all the possible combinations of hands he could have, the odds were against it). I was trying to get him to think I was scared of the flop so I could hit him back, this would have been a better idea if I had a better kicker. Poor reasoning on my part. Eli on 10. Sep 2003 08:49 Mark wrote: > That is a tough situation to play. > > However, why would you only bet 100 "to test the waters" and then go all-in. By > betting 100, you open yourself up to bluffs as well as legitimate raises. > > You probably already know that if you're willing to call all-in, you should probably > make the all-in bet. > > A much better way to play the hand would have been to make a big bet, T500 to Tpot. > Then you make a decision depending on what the button does. The button would have > obviously called or reraised. If he called i would be worried about my kicker or a > draw, and if he rerasied i would probably lay it down. > > You made a small bet that wouldn't really gather you that much information, and the > info you did gather you didn't use: > "I'm really only worried about him having a T with a Q, K or A. So I go all in" > > Did you really think he would lay down a 10 with a K or A kicker? > > You figured you were beat, and pushed your entire stack into the middle? you must > see the error in this. > > Because of your position, open raise and small flop bet, you're opponent wouldn't > put you on a 9,10. From your betting, it looks like you have an over pair or > overcards (more likely) and are scared. So if he does have a high kicker, he > probably figures it to be good and won't lay it down. > > Although your read was good, you didn't act on it correctly. You only thought about > what he had, and not what he should think you have. From his perspective, he was > very much right to call you with trips and an ace kicker. > > > Mark > > > ...I'll do what gluttons do, come back for more. > > > > Here's the hand that knocked me out tonight at Hollywood Park's NL Tourney. > > > > First some texture, as Roy would say. Table had been crazy wild before the > > break, much more than usual. Two players got busted out/quit before the break, > > something I had never seen, and 3 or 4 more almost instantly after the break. > > Lots of all in bets getting called by garbage. Didn't change too much after the > > > break, but of course still got tighter. Regardless, it wasn't terribly tight. > > > > So...I have a medium stack (about 3000), blinds are 50/100 (it's still early). > > I'm in late/middle, first to act so I bet 300 with JTo. Basically a semi-bluff > > steal bet, but I wouldn't mind playing it for 300. Button and both blinds > > call. > > > > Flop comes down TT9 with 2 clubs (my Jack is a club). Yay! Not quite. Blinds > > check, I decide I want to test the waters and trap if possible, so I only bet > > 100. Button raises it to 500 (his stack virtually equal to mine), SB folds and > > BB calls. I read the BB for either a 9 or a draw, he was by far the chip leader > > > and had been aggressive, so his flat call indicated he wasn't that strong. As > > for the button, I'm pretty confident he doesn't have a monster like 99 since he > > would have called my bet to try to keep the blinds in, so I'm hoping he either > > has one 9 or a T with a lower kicker, I'm really only worried about him having a > > > T with a Q, K or A. So I go all in, he thinks about it and calls. BB folds. > > > > One other thing- I didn't know much about the button as a player since he was > > fairly new, but as a whole the table tended to respect my raises and he seemed > > to do the same when he didn't reraise me pre-flop. > > > > I'm sure you know how this ends, he shows me AT, I go home (despite my hopes > > getting higher when I make an open ended straight draw on the turn). > > > > So what do you think? Was this a chance worth taking? Winning it would have > > made me chip leader (or at least tied for it), so I felt pretty good about it at > > > the time... > > > > > > Thanks > > > > Eli
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Re: since i'm a glutton for punishment..., Mark, 10. Sep 2003 13:58
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Re reading your post, i did misread what you wrote about your opponent's hand, but i still stand by my analysis. > A couple points to clarify. I didn't figure I was beat at all, I was trying to trap (bad > idea with the kicker problem, clearly). The only two hands I felt the button could have > that would beat me were AT or 99. I didn't think he would call my pre-flop raise with T9, > QT or KT. I thought it more likely that he had a pocket pair, possibly JJ or QQ, or There are only 6 possibilities for QQ, 3 for JJ and 8 for AT and 4 for A9 (i would discount A9offsuit). So you are about 1.5:1 to be winning if these are all possible hands, but when you push all-in you are only going to be called if you're beaten. > something like A9. I ruled out 99 when he raised my flop bet (he wouldn't want to push > out the first two checkers- how's my reasoning on this?) This is good reasoning. It really depends on the player, but most would make that play. Some may be scared that someone would draw to an over full, (e.g. someone holding a J10 and hitting a J on the turn) > > How he read my small flop bet...I don't know and clearly this was a problem. I would > never expect him to lay down AT, I just didn't expect him to have it (based on all the > possible combinations of hands he could have, the odds were against it). As above, the odds were not great. I was trying to > get him to think I was scared of the flop so I could hit him back, this would have been a > better idea if I had a better kicker. Poor reasoning on my part. It sounds like you didn't realize that the play was so close to even money. You got all your money in as a favorite, but a slight one. Mark > Eli > > > on 10. Sep 2003 08:49 Mark wrote: > > That is a tough situation to play. > > > > However, why would you only bet 100 "to test the waters" and then go all-in. By > > betting 100, you open yourself up to bluffs as well as legitimate raises. > > > > You probably already know that if you're willing to call all-in, you should probably > > make the all-in bet. > > > > A much better way to play the hand would have been to make a big bet, T500 to Tpot. > > Then you make a decision depending on what the button does. The button would have > > obviously called or reraised. If he called i would be worried about my kicker or a > > draw, and if he rerasied i would probably lay it down. > > > > You made a small bet that wouldn't really gather you that much information, and the > > info you did gather you didn't use: > > "I'm really only worried about him having a T with a Q, K or A. So I go all in" > > > > Did you really think he would lay down a 10 with a K or A kicker? > > > > You figured you were beat, and pushed your entire stack into the middle? you must > > see the error in this. > > > > Because of your position, open raise and small flop bet, you're opponent wouldn't > > put you on a 9,10. From your betting, it looks like you have an over pair or > > overcards (more likely) and are scared. So if he does have a high kicker, he > > probably figures it to be good and won't lay it down. > > > > Although your read was good, you didn't act on it correctly. You only thought about > > what he had, and not what he should think you have. From his perspective, he was > > very much right to call you with trips and an ace kicker. > > > > > > Mark > > > > > ...I'll do what gluttons do, come back for more. > > > > > > Here's the hand that knocked me out tonight at Hollywood Park's NL Tourney. > > > > > > First some texture, as Roy would say. Table had been crazy wild before the > > > break, much more than usual. Two players got busted out/quit before the break, > > > something I had never seen, and 3 or 4 more almost instantly after the break. > > > Lots of all in bets getting called by garbage. Didn't change too much after the > > > > > break, but of course still got tighter. Regardless, it wasn't terribly tight. > > > > > > So...I have a medium stack (about 3000), blinds are 50/100 (it's still early). > > > I'm in late/middle, first to act so I bet 300 with JTo. Basically a semi-bluff > > > steal bet, but I wouldn't mind playing it for 300. Button and both blinds > > > call. > > > > > > Flop comes down TT9 with 2 clubs (my Jack is a club). Yay! Not quite. Blinds > > > check, I decide I want to test the waters and trap if possible, so I only bet > > > 100. Button raises it to 500 (his stack virtually equal to mine), SB folds and > > > BB calls. I read the BB for either a 9 or a draw, he was by far the chip leader > > > > > and had been aggressive, so his flat call indicated he wasn't that strong. As > > > for the button, I'm pretty confident he doesn't have a monster like 99 since he > > > would have called my bet to try to keep the blinds in, so I'm hoping he either > > > has one 9 or a T with a lower kicker, I'm really only worried about him having a > > > > > T with a Q, K or A. So I go all in, he thinks about it and calls. BB folds. > > > > > > One other thing- I didn't know much about the button as a player since he was > > > fairly new, but as a whole the table tended to respect my raises and he seemed > > > to do the same when he didn't reraise me pre-flop. > > > > > > I'm sure you know how this ends, he shows me AT, I go home (despite my hopes > > > getting higher when I make an open ended straight draw on the turn). > > > > > > So what do you think? Was this a chance worth taking? Winning it would have > > > made me chip leader (or at least tied for it), so I felt pretty good about it at > > > > > the time... > > > > > > > > > Thanks > > > > > > Eli
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Re: since i'm a glutton for punishment..., shorn, 10. Sep 2003 08:59
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I think this is a compounding errors problem. JTo (IMO), is a tewrrible hand to try and steal with. In the early/middle part of the tournament, I think protecting your chips is most important, so I would have folded pre-flop. The flop, while good, brings complications as you point out. Unless you flop the nut str8 with that hand or JJT, you are most likely behind or drawing. That isn't a place that I like to be in a NL tourny. As TJ Cloutier would say, "I want to play top hand in NL when I can." Amen brother. So, I think once you bet it out and someone raises, you have to fold. This isn't a ring game where you can go into your pocket for more money. Bottom line, your kicker isn't strong enough to call that raise. Effectively, you are drawing to three outs and I don't want to do that for all of my chips. Sorryt if this was harsh, but this hand has killed me in the past, so I have some strong opinions on it. Steve
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Re: since i'm a glutton for punishment..., LJH, 10. Sep 2003 13:55
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EC, IT WAS A TERRIBLE BUNC OF PLAYS FROM THE BEGINNING. JTO AND NOT GOING ALL IN IF YOU ARE PLAYING IT. I WOULD HAVE THROWN IT AWAY. AFTER THE FLOP, AND THEN FURTHER NG. LJH
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Re: since i'm a glutton for punishment..., chasepoker, 10. Sep 2003 18:00
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Just for a change i disagree and say that: a) your raise preflop was ok as it was a ' legitimate steal position ' (if that is not an oxymoron i dont know what is!!!! ) b) i would have been hard pressed not to commit all my chips here as well. I am well aware of all the dangers playing this sort of hand with a poor kicker but i believe that this situation is in a tournament good enough to commit all your chips. This is because the other player could easily have been holding AJ, QQ less likely AA or KK as he would most likely raise preflop but then maybe not ! I believe that whilst you must always make sure you conserve your chips you can not be frighting of putting them in with a situation like this ( the outcome is not important, it just happend that this time you got it wrong ) To win a tournament you have to take some form of risk and i would say that the risk of the other player beating you here is one i would be willing to take. Cloutier talks of not getting the chips unless you have the nuts i would say he is probably talking about the WSOP where you do have the time to play the nuts more but the blind structure for this kind of tournament ( it would appear ) would not allow for such tight play to succeed. Allthough having written all that i am now thinking it is close between going all in and folding.......but all in still wins. Chasepoker
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Re: since i'm a glutton for punishment..., Schuster, 11. Sep 2003 08:36
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I don't like playing JTo. It's a weak trap hand and there are very few flops where you can stand any heat at all. That said, you suspected the button might have a ten. If he did, he probably has a better kicker than you. So why risk all your chips to find out? You said you have about 3000, so about 2600 after the preflop raise and the flop bet. The button raises to 500, why not make it about 1500? If he moves in, you fold with a clear conscience. If he flat calls, you have to figure he has the ten and he's trying to trap you. If he doesn't have the ten, he'll fold. You risk a lot of chips, but it's better than being eliminated. 15 big blinds is still plenty to play with. You don't always have to move in after someone raises you! Lee
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Re: since i'm a glutton for punishment..., ADAM THE EXPERT, 12. Sep 2003 05:18
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REMEMBER THAT TOURNAMENTS ARE ABOUT SURVIVAL. DEFENSE MORE IMPORTANT THAN OFFENSE, AT LEAST AT THIS STAGE. DON'T BE SO SURE THAT THEY COULDN'T HAVE HAD 99!!!! WHO CARES ABOUT KEEPING THE BLIND IN, WHEN THERE IS A BETTOR WITH A STACK BIG ENOUGH TO DOUBLE THROUGH AGAINST!!! PLUS, WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT A BLIND HAS ANY HAND GOOD ENOUGH TO CALL THE 500!!! REMEMBER, THAT ALMOST ALL POKER PLAYERS LIVE IN TERROR OF SOMEONE HAVING A BETTER HAND THAN THEM. ESPECIALLY IN TOURMENT PLAY, AFTER THE REBUY (IF ANY) PERIOD IS OVER. SO, IT THEY PUT IN 1/6 OF THEIR CHIPS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THEY HOLD ONE ONE OF THE FOUR HANDS THAT COULD BEAT YOU, OR POSSIBLY, THE ONE THAT COULD TIE YOU. YOUR RELITIVLY SMALL BET BEFORE THE FLOP, IS OF THE SIZE THAT CAN BE CALLED BY HANDS LIKE A 10, Q 1OS, K10S, AND CERTAINLY IS THE PERFECT SIZE, FOR POCKET 9'S. ONCE THERE IS A RAISE, OF FIVE TIMES YOUR BET, THE CHANCES OF THEM POSESSING ONE OF THESE HANDS, GOES UP EXPONENTIALLY. (OK, SO I CAN'T SPELL, AND i REFUSE TO HAVE A MACHINE HELP ME) SO, YOU SHOULD HAVE PRETENDED TO THINK FOR ABOUT EIGHT TO TEN SECONDS ( TO HELP PREVENT A FUTURE STEAL RAISE) THEN PASSED, AND SURVIVED WITH ALMOST 90% OF THE CHIPS THAT YOU STARTED THE HAND WITH.
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