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Server Time: 11/20/2008 10:33:42 AM PACIFIC |
 Hand analysis - long, Angel, 7. Sep 2003 23:39 | ||
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| I am re-tooling my whole game. I plan on asking a good number of questions on this forum and some of the questions I'll already have a pretty good idea of what the answer is - but I figure that if I don't challenge my own fixed idea's about the game - I can't grow. I invite you to join me and perhaps we can improve each others game: $20/40 game - 8 handed and the game is typical - neither super aggressive or particularly loose (although this hand certainly looks loose), a solid player UTG comes in for a raise; 3 MP callers and the button (loose), SB folds and when it gets to me in the BB and I look down to find 8h5h. My thinking: A clear call. $20 call for $230 in the pot - getting 11.5:1 - if the flop hits me hard I stay otherwise I muck against almost all heat. I'll assume I have no objections to this call in analysis - what are the minimum odds I want on this hand to call the raise? Obviously if it was folded around to me, I have a clear fold. I fold with one other caller as well. What about 2 callers - or 3? Next hand: Actually this was the first hand. I posted behind the button and caught 9cTc. UTG calls, MP called - the SB called before I could act, then I called, BB rapped. Flop comes KcJc5c. The blinds check, UTG leads out (loose player), MP (never seen him before but he's been around a card room before ie: headphones, CD case, chip shuffling etc) calls - I raise and it's folded around to UTG - both players call the raise. Turn card comes the 4c. UTG checks, MP bets out. A glance to the left shows me that UTG is going to muck. I begin to think; He could have the bare Ac or Qc of course, if he's got the ace I'm still live to the Q - if he's got the Q I'm drawing dead. I just don't have a lot of info on this guy but I suspect that he's capable of making a move on the pot - and that could mean I've still got the best hand. Whatever I decide, I realize I need a river strategy in advance too - because if a number of river cards can scare me off - then I need to save the bet on the turn. I decided to call for a couple of reasons. I'm going to wager $80 (turn and river call) to win $300 (there's $220 in the pot after the flop, his $40 turn bet and presumably a $40 river bet - normally I don't calculate this way - but when I'm making a decision on the turn to call the river against a specific opponent I do) So he has to be capable of bluffing about 1 in 4.5 times for this to be break even, my intuition suggests this is the case - and if not, I bought some information fairly cheap that I can use in the future. River came a blank and he bet out with KJo. | ||
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| Re: Hand analysis - long, DJpoker, 8. Sep 2003 00:55 | ||
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| Answers to each hand follow your description. > $20/40 game - 8 handed and the game is typical - neither super >aggressive or particularly loose (although this hand certainly looks >loose), a solid player UTG comes in for a raise; 3 MP callers and the >button (loose), SB folds and when it gets to me in the BB and I look >down to find 8h5h. My thinking: A clear call. $20 call for $230 in the >pot - getting 11.5:1 - Yes, you are getting great odds, but a couple of things concern me about your call. If the solid player bets UTG, I'm assuming s/he has a monster. I'm not sure about the other 4 callers because they could be chip burners (obviously the button is wild). You are probably in last place before the flop. I think you could get stuck with a heart draw or if the 7-6 shows up, you will be open ended and paying everyone else to draw out. I also understand that if you do make a staright, you will probably pull down a huge pot. Whereas the flush could still be a loser. Finally, you know about position and I would be very afraid as you will be first to act. Also, most likely, there a couple of weak aces out there (A-8 or A-5). I feel like this hand is a long-term loser. >if the flop hits me hard I stay otherwise I muck against almost all >heat. I'll assume I have no objections to this call in analysis - what >are the minimum odds I want on this hand to call the raise? Obviously, if you flop trips or two pair you would be in good shape (although your kicker is weak). I would still be leary of flopping a flush as you won't chase any face heart by betting and if another heart pops up, you are in danger. As I said earlier, you are getting good odds to call the raise pre-flop, and you only have to hit the flop 1 out of 11 to be successful. I'm still not convinced this hand should be played though :) >Obviously if it was folded around to me, I have a clear fold. I fold with >one other caller as well. What about 2 callers - or 3? Again, I think you fold more often than not and less than 3 players makes it automatic. I think 4 is where you start getting respectable odds. > Next hand: Actually this was the first hand. I posted behind the > >button and caught 9cTc. UTG calls, MP called - the SB called before I >could act, then I called, BB rapped. I wouldn't limp in here. Yes you have a drawing hand, but raise and find out where you stand before the flop. Also, if you aren't re-raised you will either get a free flop or find out who the flop has hit bacuase they will bet into your raise. >Flop comes KcJc5c. The blinds check, UTG leads out (loose player), >MP (never seen him before but he's been around a card room before >ie: headphones, CD case, chip shuffling etc) calls - I raise and it's >folded around to UTG - both players call the raise. I totally agree with this play. You are getting the most money possible in the pot when you most likely have the best hand. This flop is similar to the one you talked about above. I like your hand but would still be a little leary of a higher club, but no re-raise means you are boss for now. > Turn card comes the 4c. UTG checks, MP bets out. A glance to the >left shows me that UTG is going to muck. I begin to think; He could > have the bare Ac or Qc of course, if he's got the ace I'm still live to the >Q - if he's got the Q I'm drawing dead. Raise him. If you are going to call him down, why not raise here? If he raises back, then you have a decision to make. I would be thinking that he bet out on the flop so the 4 only helps his hand if he has the A or Q as you suggest, but I would put him on top pair or two pair because he bet on the flop and only called your raise. Find out right now if you can win the pot. Your raise might just win the pot right there. >I just don't have a lot of info on this guy but I suspect that he's >capable of making a move on the pot - and that could mean I've still >got the best hand. Whatever I decide, I realize I need a river strategy >in advance too - because if a number of river cards can scare me off -> then I need to save the bet on the turn. I decided to call for a couple >of reasons. I'm going to wager $80 (turn and river call) to win $300 (there's $220 in the pot after the flop, his $40 turn bet and presumably a $40 river bet - normally I don't calculate this way - but when I'm making a decision on the turn to call the river against a specific opponent I do) So he has to be capable of bluffing about 1 in 4.5 times for this to be break even, my intuition suggests this is the case - and if not, I bought some information fairly cheap that I can use in the future. River came a blank and he bet out with KJo. He obviously didn't believe you had the flush or was just completely bluffing as you eluded. I like the fact you thought out everything before betting on the turn, but I would have raised again on the turn. At this point you would truly find out if he was serious. If he only called, I think you would know you were definitely best. He continued to bet into you but never responded to your raise. At 20-40 I wouldn't be as leary of a slowplay although it could happen. It sounds like this player plays and bets aggressively. He probably thought you were trying to buy the pot because of the scary flop and couldn't get away from his hand, but a raise on the turn would represent the Ac and he might have given up and not had a chance to pair the board (which is all that could scare you). Sorry to be so long winded. Let me know what you think. Also, what happens if you raise the turn and he reraises you? What would you do? I have a feeling Cooke or some other vets around here would try to run you out. Also along those lines, what if he check-raised the turn, what would you do? Good luck, DJpoker | ||
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| Re: Hand analysis - long, Angel, 8. Sep 2003 02:08 | ||
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| DJ, First of all, thank you very much for your comments. Second, trust me on this one - if I disagree with any part of your analysis - I'm not dumping on you, I'm grateful for the opportunity to debate it. On the first hand, despite the pitfalls inherent in playing this kind of hand - I stand by the assertion that I'm getting the right price for a call. But as you pointed out, I'm not going to feel good with an 8-4-3 flop. I need to hit it hard - and if I do, the implied odds are going to be huge. As far as the second hand I discussed, you said: "I wouldn't limp in here. Yes you have a drawing hand, but raise and find out where you stand before the flop. Also, if you aren't re-raised you will either get a free flop or find out who the flop has hit bacuase they will bet into your raise." I kinda know where I stand pre-flop; somewhere close to last place. This is not a hand that I can win in any kind of showdown without improving - so the person this hand needs to hit on the flop is me. We agree on my handling of the flop but on the turn you said/asked, "Raise him. If you are going to call him down, why not raise here?" Well, here's my thinking: If I raise him, I call his $40 and raise $40 for a total of $80. If he raises me back, what then? I've already invested $80 which would have gotten me to the showdown against an opponent whom I can't place on a hand. If my re-raise does win the pot right here as you suggested - then I've saved myself from the possibility of him drawing out on me for free - but he's drawing slim with one card to come. From his action I think it's more likely that he was holding AcKs, AcJs, KsQc, QcTd or other assorted hand - just not 3 1/2 times more likely. You pondered, "Also, what happens if you raise the turn and he reraises you? What would you do?" I didn't have a good answer for this - which is one reason why I didn't raise. "I have a feeling Cooke or some other vets around here would try to run you out." I have to give them the opportunity - a good friend used to tell me, "Discretion is the better part of chicken sh*t" I think letting him turn me into a calling station when I am so easily beat is ok here. "Also along those lines, what if he check-raised the turn, what would you do?" Good question. I would probably pay him off seeing as we had never played together before. | ||
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| Re: Hand analysis - long, Formless, 8. Sep 2003 08:53 | ||
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| on 7. Sep 2003 23:39 Angel wrote: > I am re-tooling my whole game. So am I. Isn't this forum great? > UTG comes in for a raise; 3 MP callers and the button (loose), SB folds and when > it gets to me in the BB and I look down to find 8h5h. My thinking: A clear > call. $20 call for $230 in the pot - getting 11.5:1 - if the flop hits me hard > I stay otherwise I muck against almost all heat. I'll assume I have no > objections to this call in analysis - what are the minimum odds I want on this > hand to call the raise? Obviously if it was folded around to me, I have a clear > fold. I fold with one other caller as well. What about 2 callers - or 3? I generally call here versus 3 or more opponents. I am pulling this number out of thin air, I dont have much data to back it up but it feels right. In any case this hand has good implied odds potential. I guess you want more people in this hand in the same way you want lots of players to call before you play 67s or 44 on the button; it's not so much the immediate odds but also the amount of callers you will have subsidizing your draw if you flop one. > Next hand: Actually this was the first hand. I posted behind the button and > caught 9cTc. UTG calls, MP called - the SB called before I could act, then I > called, BB rapped. Flop comes KcJc5c. The blinds check, UTG leads out (loose > player), MP (never seen him before but he's been around a card room before ie: > headphones, CD case, chip shuffling etc) calls - I raise and it's folded around > to UTG - both players call the raise. Turn card comes the 4c. UTG checks, MP > bets out. A glance to the left shows me that UTG is going to muck. I begin to > think; He could have the bare Ac or Qc of course, if he's got the ace I'm still > live to the Q - if he's got the Q I'm drawing dead. I just don't have a lot of > info on this guy but I suspect that he's capable of making a move on the pot - > and that could mean I've still got the best hand. Whatever I decide, I realize > I need a river strategy in advance too - because if a number of river cards can > scare me off - then I need to save the bet on the turn. I decided to call for a > couple of reasons. I'm going to wager $80 (turn and river call) to win $300 > (there's $220 in the pot after the flop, his $40 turn bet and presumably a $40 > river bet - normally I don't calculate this way - but when I'm making a decision > on the turn to call the river against a specific opponent I do) So he has to be > capable of bluffing about 1 in 4.5 times for this to be break even, my intuition > suggests this is the case - and if not, I bought some information fairly cheap > that I can use in the future. River came a blank and he bet out with KJo. I would make a crying call on the turn and check - call the river and expect to lose more often than not. MP played this hand weird, almost illogically you could say. So you have to account for the Random Bezerko factor when deciding on a play. If this were a 3-6 table and Granny Nuts bets out on the turn you could start thinking about folding. | ||
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| Re: Hand analysis - long, Schuster, 8. Sep 2003 09:56 | ||
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| In the first hand, I'd let it go. You can't feel confident even if you make your flush. You might lose to a higher flush, and flopping open ended with a 3 gapper is very poor odds. You're basically shooting for 2 pair or trips, and if you hit 2 pair, there's a decent chance it will be bottom 2 pair, which will give an overpair or top pair a lot of outs against you. Implied odds are fine, but if you hit your hand and still lose, you're in trouble. 8-6s might be ok here, but I wouldn't go to 3 gaps. The second hand is just goofy. I can understand why your opponent would bet out the turn to try to pick up the pot right there, but when you call, it should signal that you have at least a flush, so why does he bet the river? Does he expect to get called by a worse hand? Anyway, I think there is a good case for raising the turn here. If he comes back at you, you know you're drawing dead or close. If he just calls, you can check down the river with what will probably be the best hand and you've charged him the most to draw out on you. Only if you suspect he's on a complete bluff is just calling correct so that you encourage him to bluff the river again, as he won't call your turn raise. You get to the showdown and pay the same number of bets, but you give your opponent a chance to fold. He might even fold a queen here when faced with the prospect of calling a turn bet and maybe a river bet. Lee | ||
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| Re: Hand analysis - long, shorn, 9. Sep 2003 07:24 | ||
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| I fold 85h no matter where I get it (other than SB and BB for small price). Even at 11.5 to 1 can't think of that many flops where I am comfortable. I think I would need to flop 2 pair or a str8 to feel good and I don't think the combined % of either of those happening is anywhere near 8.7% (11.5 to 1). However, I am a conservative player and this is the type of hand that can get me into trouble post flop, so that plays into it as well. I like your play on the second hand. I wouldn't raise the turn because an astute player will recognize that you wouldn't do that with the nut flush and may re-bluff with nothing. The pot is too big to fold, so I think check calling is the best play. This allows him to (1) continue his bluff winning you more $$, or (2) saves you money on the off chance he has you beat. | ||
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