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Server Time: 3/18/2010 12:55:39 AM PACIFIC |
 Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, Bart Mann, 5. Sep 2003 06:38 | ||
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| I’m guessing that for most poker players, there is a certain set of hands that you believe you play correctly, but always walk away from the table thinking “Did I do that right?” I gave it some thought last night, and the one on the top of my list I will affectionately call “Two Cards to the Nut Flush.” It breaks down like this: Let’s say I get dealt Ax of hearts. My x isn’t anything special--maybe an 8. There is no unusual preflop activity in the raise department, so I get to see the flop for a single bet. The flop comes x-x-heart. There’s nothing dangerous in the flop that would lead me to believe there’s a full house out there, so at this point the best possible hand at the table is either three of a kind or a straight draw. So my question is this—given that I’m two cards from the nut flush with two cards pending, and assuming I have no other hand (no straight possibility, no pair) how much should I pay to see the Turn? Typically I’ll buy the Turn card for a single bet 100% of the time in this situation. If there are two bets, I’ll buy it only if there are a large number of callers. If there are three bets, I almost always get the heck out of the way and let the guys with the big pairs in the hole battle it out. I’m looking for some other thoughts on this--maybe some situational advice, a few rules that the rest of you follow, some contingency plans, or even an anecdote or two. Thanks in advance for your help. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, shorn, 5. Sep 2003 06:58 | ||
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| My thoughts on this are that you are wasting money by calling with only three to the flush. Depending on the limit you play, there are so many players that will play Ax that you really can't count your Ace as a clean extra out and chances are your 8 will not make you top pair on the turn either. Therefore, the real question is what size does the pot need to be in order for you to draw to TWO hearts. So, there are 10 hearts left in the deck and you need to hit two of them to win. In my opinion, there is no sense in finding out how big the pot must be in order to just draw to the turn and then re-evaluate because if the turn doesn't bring a heart, you will fold anyway. So, the chances of you hitting the flush in this scenario are (10/47) * (9/46) or 4.16% of the time. Add this to the fact that on of your hearts (or two) could pair the board giving someone a higher hand than you, and I would say the chance of you hitting the flush and winning drop to 3% roughly. So, in order to draw to this hand with only the flush as a winner, you would need to be getting on the order of 30 to 1 pot odds or better(either current or implied if you employ Roy's theory in his other post). Even in the fishiest of games, you will be hard pressed to have those odds. Steve | ||
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| Exactly, Mark, 5. Sep 2003 07:31 | ||
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| Shorn is right | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, jaustin, 5. Sep 2003 07:47 | ||
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| I don't think you can completely discount having the ace. If you're in a game where people raise with a high ace, your A8 has a good chance to be the highest ace if there was no pre flop raise. Let's say it's 50/50 that you have high ace. The odds of another ace hitting are 12.5% (1 - 44/47*43/46). Of course you can hit your ace and lose to two pair, straight, etc. So maybe you'll win 1/4 when you get the ace, that's still another 3% expected win%. Also, you have a 1.39% chance to hit two pair of trips. I'd say in this case your odds are about 1/3 of winning (lower if your trips are aces higher if they're the x). So total I'd say the odds of you winning are about 6.5%, still not good and you would need pot odds of 16:1 to call (which isn't likely as one of my premises is no pre-flop raise). Basically I would only think about it if you expect to be able to see the turn for either one or zero bets and have a ton of players who will pay you off on the river if you hit. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, shorn, 5. Sep 2003 08:01 | ||
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| I will give you the two pair or trips argument, but I don't agree with just the ace as an out. Even if it comes, you can't play it aggressively at all so the winning potential of hitting it really isn't that great. In fact, i would argue that you would need to hit both an Ace and an 8 or two eights to win ( sure two aces might be good, but it is less likely that your 8 kicker is good). Those percentages would be: (3/47) * (3/46) or 0.42% for two pair and, (3/47) * (2/46) or 0.28% for 3 eights. So, add .6% to your total of 3% and you still need 25 to 1 to call the flop in those cases. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, jaustin, 5. Sep 2003 08:21 | ||
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| First, your two pair odds are off, it should be (6/47) * (3/46) or .833%. I agree that hitting an ace (or even two) is nowhere near a quality out, but it is still an out. That's why I discount the ace so heavily (but still don't ignore it). My point about the ace is that you need to know your opponents, if they play any ace and raise with any good ace, A8 has a decent chance to win if you pair the ace. If you hit the ace and there is a raise you fold, but if it checks around and you're in LP you can probably bet as most other players calling with Ax would bet it when the ace hits. I would even think about betting out EP and then folding to a raise or checking on the river if you don't improve. Again, I agree that in Axs is almost always a fold, but in the right situation with the right type of opponents is could be a call. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, shorn, 5. Sep 2003 08:25 | ||
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| Good catch on the two pair...thanks. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, Angel, 5. Sep 2003 08:29 | ||
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| I for one, and I think I am joined by others, consider an out to be something which wins the pot. If you hit your ace and do not win the pot - it is not "an out, albiet not a very good one" - it is simply "not an out". That is how I use the word 'out'. Just wondering if a communication gap has sprung up. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, shorn, 5. Sep 2003 08:37 | ||
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| I agree with you Angel. I only count outs that I am confident will win me the pot. Using maybe's potentially turns clear folds into bad calls. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, jaustin, 5. Sep 2003 08:44 | ||
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| You're right - "out" is not a good word there - "potential winner" might be better. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, Roy Cooke, 5. Sep 2003 08:05 | ||
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| You also are likely to have to pay to draw on the turn if you pick up a draw.....Also two hearts will pair the board after the turn and you may get the hand beat even if you do make it.......Plus you may get raised behind you.......So 30-1may be too low! Roy Cooke on 5. Sep 2003 06:58 shorn wrote: > My thoughts on this are that you are wasting money by calling with only three to the > flush. Depending on the limit you play, there are so many players that will play Ax > that you really can't count your Ace as a clean extra out and chances are your 8 will > not make you top pair on the turn either. Therefore, the real question is what size > does the pot need to be in order for you to draw to TWO hearts. > > So, there are 10 hearts left in the deck and you need to hit two of them to win. In > my opinion, there is no sense in finding out how big the pot must be in order to just > draw to the turn and then re-evaluate because if the turn doesn't bring a heart, you > will fold anyway. So, the chances of you hitting the flush in this scenario are > (10/47) * (9/46) or 4.16% of the time. Add this to the fact that on of your hearts > (or two) could pair the board giving someone a higher hand than you, and I would say > the chance of you hitting the flush and winning drop to 3% roughly. > > So, in order to draw to this hand with only the flush as a winner, you would need to > be getting on the order of 30 to 1 pot odds or better(either current or implied if > you employ Roy's theory in his other post). Even in the fishiest of games, you will > be hard pressed to have those odds. > > Steve | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, shorn, 5. Sep 2003 08:08 | ||
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| Roy- You crack me up! 5-1 in the hopes that you can CR with a gutter but 30-1 too low! Now I am REALLY confused....I guess this all falls into the "it depends" mantra! Steve | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, Phish, 5. Sep 2003 08:27 | ||
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| Keep in mind that even if you hit a flush card on the turn, you still have to pay again to make it on the river. It's not a clean one card draw like a gut-shot is. That said, I would suggest that you would probably be better off ignoring all backdoor draws. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, noiseboy, 5. Sep 2003 08:20 | ||
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| When you are counting outs, you should only consider a "backdoor" flush as about 1.5 outs or so. Personally, I ignore backdoor possibilities unless the hand has something else going for it. For instance, if I had AKs, and flopped two overcards + one of my suit and I think the overcards will win for me, then I might consider the backdoor flush to tip the scales toward playing the hand. Just think of the backdoor flush as a very slight bonus, and spend most of your time considering other, more important, aspects of the hand. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, Bart Mann, 5. Sep 2003 08:52 | ||
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| So using reverse logic, is it good practice to make the general assumption that any time the flop comes as three unsuited cards, the only flush draws that hang around are going to be those with other opportunities to make a hand? This could be very useful information when putting people on hands. It sounds like the experienced player would definitely muck if nothing else was going for him--and I believe the amateur would as well. One thing I've noticed about inexperienced players is that they'll hold onto big cards WAY too long, but on the flip side they're hesitant to draw to flushes in raised pots, even if the pot odds are favorable. I sat beside a guy at a tournament a few weeks ago who, on two separate occasions, mucked suited AK and AJ with four to the nut flush in HUGE pots, because someone put in a raise. On both occasions, he had two cards coming. And this certainly wasn't the first time I've seen this "Flush Hesitancy" from a rookie. Anyone have any thoughts? | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, shorn, 5. Sep 2003 09:04 | ||
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| Yes, I think you can use that logic about flush draws. However, be careful to peg people on only that type of hand. The only time I really peg someone on a flush draw is if the board is so uncoordinated other wise that it is all that they could have. The easier read for a flush draw is someone who only called pre-flop in later position, but raises on the flop when two flush cards come and then checks the turn when checked too. If the flush card comes then and they bet, you can be pretty certain that is what they have. As far as the guy next to you goes, and assuming it is NL, he is generally correct to not call off all of his chips with just a flush draw, even if it is to the nuts. My guess is that in both cases, he didn;t have the chance to be the aggressor, so he folded to another's aggression (bet, big raise and then it came to him). Most likely, he didn't feel that his overcards (assuming that they both were on the two hands) necessarily were also good if he hit, and he didn't have other draws t make calling worthwhile. The only time I would call a big raise with a flush draw like that is late in the tournament and I am a shorter than average stack needing to double through. In that case, i would likely push all-in if I was to play at all. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, noiseboy, 5. Sep 2003 09:06 | ||
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| Oh, man, I need some players like that in my games. Yeah, I've seen it too, but not nearly enough. :) | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, Bart Mann, 5. Sep 2003 10:18 | ||
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| Not only did he fold both times, but he proudly showed me his cards before he mucked and said discouragingly "Man, I just can't play this hand." I realize some may disagree, but in a no-limit tournament with four to a nut flush, at least one raiser and two cards coming (NOT the situation that initially started this discussion, by the way), I'd at least consider calling a raise if the board isn't paired. If it's a small raise, I'd call--and with a big raise, I'd give some serious consideration to pushing all in and put the tough decision on the other guy. Maybe he'll put you on a bigger hand than you have and fold, or maybe he'll put you on the Flush draw and choose not to deal with it. Or maybe he'll call and you'll win. A million variables, I guess. I realize the value of pot odds and maximization of outcome, but I don't think you can get to the final table of a 230-person tournament without bending the rules a few times along the way. With an opportunity to not only double up but knock someone out, I think it can be a good play in moderation. I don't remember the last time I watched a WPT or WSP event where the champion won the tournament by playing completely solid poker for 4 days straight. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, noiseboy, 5. Sep 2003 10:46 | ||
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| I didn't realize we were talking about a NL tourney on the nut flush draw question. I can see folding it, depending on various factors, the pot odds, my stack size, how high are the blinds and ante's, what hands I think are out, etc... In tourney's, I'm much more conservative with drawing hands. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, shorn, 5. Sep 2003 10:47 | ||
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| I agree. There will be times in a tournament when you must push the edges and play a hand against the %ages. But, I think the time for that is after you have survived and gotten close to the bubble where those decisions begin to matter more. And, as you point out, calling a small raise is probably appropriate (assuming there is no one behind you who can re-raise) or preferably being the aggressor and moving all-in gives you multiple ways to win as he then has the chance to fold. My tourny philosophy is to survive until the point where my decisions have actual monetary value and then begin to become more aggressive when facing those more marginal decisions. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, Jav, 5. Sep 2003 13:53 | ||
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| Drawing hands in NL tourney's are very very bad. The only time you would call a large bet with one is if are short stacked and going to be blinded out soon. You can make a bet with one heads up with a good read on your opponent, but you don't really want him to call. You only do that if you want to win the pot right then, and the flush draw is your draw in case the person actually calls you. If you play very many drawing hands in NL tournaments you're going to lose one eventually. And then you're watching from the sidelines. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, Mark Barnett II, 5. Sep 2003 09:08 | ||
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| ok color me confused but in the original post i get the impression he is saying that he has the A and the 8 of hearts and the flop brings 2 hearts so that he is drawing to the nut flush *said no pair on board*. assuming this is the case. if i remember right *too long since i have read the exact odds* with 2 cards to come *4th street & 5th street* your about a 2-1 dog to make it, this means that with 2 others in the pot with you you can almost always call, 3 or more is a for sure call *assuming your very confident all will call all raises* with just the river to come your about a 4-1 dog so get a rough idea of how many big bets are in the pot and if the pot has more than 4 big bets in it you *can* call, however take into account possible raises and such (need more money in the pot to call) depending on limit your playing at and the kind of table (loose/passive/tight/aggresive) also remember that you will or wont get paid off when your flush comes *4th or 5th street* getting very deep into this kind of hand is coming out betting if your first or everyone checks to you on the flop. it helps mix up how people see you play hands so that when you flop a really good hand they will be more likely to call with worse *of course limits/type of table has everything to do with this* | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, Angel, 5. Sep 2003 09:17 | ||
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| He said he had the A8 hearts and the flop came with one heart - not two. | ||
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| Re: Drawing to the Nut Flush: The Debate, gary ford, 5. Sep 2003 20:38 | ||
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| on 5. Sep 2003 09:17 Angel wrote: > He said he had the A8 hearts and the flop came with one heart - not two That was the case--there were a lot of posts with sophisticated answers To me the answer is simple. If you were playing draw, would you draw 2 to a fflush? | ||
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