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Server Time: 11/20/2008 9:54:17 AM PACIFIC |
 Pot Odds, Roy Cooke, 5. Sep 2003 06:33 | ||
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| I am seeing many posters define the odds they are getting from the pot as the current amount in the pot at the time of the call.....This is an incorrect way to compute the price the pot is laying you. The true price the pot is laying you is the price the pot will be at the end of the hand IF you hit your hand......This will include all bets going into the pot to draw and all bets you expect your opponents to put into the pot if you hit......You must also include the chance that you will make your a hand and it will not be good. (If you can hit your hand and still not win you need to extend your odds proportionately). I understand this is a best estimate.....But you need to think in these terms and develop feel along these lines. Compute your odds this way and you will be putting the odds in your favor more often! Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke | ||
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| Re: Pot Odds, shorn, 5. Sep 2003 06:49 | ||
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| Roy- This is one of those times that I have to disagree with you. As poker is a game of imperfect information and you must make decisions based on that information, I think this type of thinking will encourage players to make calls in hands that they shouldn't make. If you had all the information as to what your opponents had, what they were drawing too, and whether or not they would pay you off or not, then I would agree. Unfortunately, you don't have this information and therefore it is my opinion that in most cases the math that is "present" needs to take over. Now, I am not saying that if you are playing in a loose passive game and you are drawing to a gutshot when the pot is laying you 9 to 1 AND there are others behind you yet to act that you should always fold. Certainly, you can make some calls with less than the exact odds on the anticipation that players behind you will make the price correct. BUT, I don't advise taking this too far. Primarily, the texture of the board plays an enormous role (for me at least) in determining whether I should make that semi-wrong call. It is my opinion that long run you will lose more bets than you win by making calls based that you base on estimated odds that are influenced by what you perceive other players actions "will" be. I understand that you need to think about these things when deciding to call, but I believe the actual math to be much more important. Steve | ||
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| Re: Pot Odds, Roy Cooke, 5. Sep 2003 07:07 | ||
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| Hi Shorn My responses are underneath your statements! Roy Cooke on 5. Sep 2003 06:49 shorn wrote: > Roy- > > This is one of those times that I have to disagree with you. As poker is a game of > imperfect information and you must make decisions based on that information, I think > this type of thinking will encourage players to make calls in hands that they > shouldn't make. If you had all the information as to what your opponents had, what > they were drawing too, and whether or not they would pay you off or not, then I would > agree. Unfortunately, you don't have this information and therefore it is my opinion > that in most cases the math that is "present" needs to take over. Roy Says: But those issues are BIG factors in the value of your hand....If you are not learning to read those situations you are not growing as a "reader" in poker. If you just incorporate the "current" in all your poker decisions then you are going to make a lot of errors when the "implied odds" decision does not correspond to the "current odds" decision. > > Now, I am not saying that if you are playing in a loose passive game and you are > drawing to a gutshot when the pot is laying you 9 to 1 AND there are others behind > you yet to act that you should always fold. Certainly, you can make some calls with > less than the exact odds on the anticipation that players behind you will make the > price correct. BUT, I don't advise taking this too far. Primarily, the texture of > the board plays an enormous role (for me at least) in determining whether I should > make that semi-wrong call. Roy Says: I agree the texture of the board is a factor.....That factor is included in the chance of getting action and the chance your hand may not win.......But getting 5-1 on the flop with a nut gutter ( on a clean board)against two players who pay everything off and you are in a position to check-raise them if you make your hand IS a CORRECT call. That is an example of making a play based on the texture of the situation that is current. > > It is my opinion that long run you will lose more bets than you win by making calls > based that you base on estimated odds that are influenced by what you perceive other > players actions "will" be. I understand that you need to think about these things > when deciding to call, but I believe the actual math to be much more important. Roy Says: If that is true you need to work on your "reading" of situations. I think you may, unknowingly, be giving up a lot of valuable situations....If you develop a good "feel" you will improve your hourly expectation! Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke > > Steve | ||
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| Re: Pot Odds, shorn, 5. Sep 2003 07:43 | ||
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| on 5. Sep 2003 07:07 Roy Cooke wrote: > Roy Says: I agree the texture of the board is a factor.....That factor is included in the chance of getting action and the chance your hand may not win.......But getting 5-1 on the flop with a nut gutter ( on a clean board)against two players who pay everything off and you are in a position to check-raise them if you make your hand IS a CORRECT call. That is an example of making a play based on the texture of the situation that is current. 5-1 against only two?? What if you don't make your hand until the river and everyone checks the turn (if you are lucky)?? Effectively then your odds on the flop were 13-3 or 4.25 to 1. 7-1 on the flop is a mybe, but I consider 5-1 to be nowhere near enough to continue unless you know thes players like the back of your hand. Also, how often are you going to hit your gutshot? You are an 11-1 dog to hit, so that means roughly 9% of the time you will make it. So, you invest 10 small bets with 0 return and 1 small bet with 8 extra small bets return. That is 11 bwts to win 8 or -3 bets. Sorry...I will save my $$. | ||
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| Re: Pot Odds, Easy E, 5. Sep 2003 07:14 | ||
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| "The true price the pot is laying you is the price the pot will be at the end of the hand IF you hit your hand" Aren't these implied pot odds you're referring to here? Don't you have to consider both (with the weight on implied, rather than immediate, pot odds)? | ||
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| Re: Pot Odds, Roy Cooke, 5. Sep 2003 07:24 | ||
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| Hi Actually.....I don't put much weight at all on the current price...except as a "worst case scenario" in my computation......I make my judgments on how I think the hand will play out.....I understand that I have more experience than most in making those judgments....But that is the track you need to set your thinking on to play professional quality poker! In answer to your question....Yes I am talking about implied odds! Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke on 5. Sep 2003 07:14 Easy E wrote: > "The true price the pot is laying you is the price the pot will be at the end of the > hand IF you hit your hand" > > Aren't these implied pot odds you're referring to here? Don't you have to consider > both (with the weight on implied, rather than immediate, pot odds)? | ||
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| Re: Pot Odds, Angel, 5. Sep 2003 07:26 | ||
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| I agree with both Roy and Steve on this one. (I'm trying to break into politics - work with me:-) Roy, you are right of course - but what Steve said, imo, is extremely valid. Most new players are looking for reasons to call - not fold, and in their inexperience and zeal to play I can just hear the minds calculating how, ..."when I check raise the river after the guy to my immediate left bets and those 8 guys call...therefore calling 3 bets cold on the turn for a 4 as long as it isn't the 4 of clubs or spades is a great idea!!" This forum's greatest asset presents it's greatest challenge. With players of all skill levels participating, the infamous "It depends" answer not only refers to the texture of the game and the situations surrounding it - but also of the player doing the asking and their current skill level. | ||
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| Re: Pot Odds, URF, 5. Sep 2003 10:49 | ||
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| Roy, you talk about "odds [one is] getting from the pot" and that this is not based on purely "the current amount in the pot at the time of the call". This disagreement might be a matter of terminology. If by "odds [one is] getting from the pot" you mean Pot Odds, this IS defined as what the current pot is laying you, and nothing more. Quote from The Theory of Poker: "Pot odds are the odds the pot is giving you for calling a bet. If there is $50 in the pot and the final bet was $10, you are getting 5-to-1 odds for your call." [p. 35] Then of course there are Effective Odds and Implied Odds and Reverse Implied Odds, and all these should of course be used, and that is what you are saying, but it kind of sounds like you are saying that Pot Odds would mean the whole thing, which it doesn't with the generally accepted terminology. -URF | ||
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| Re: Pot Odds, Risky Business, 5. Sep 2003 10:54 | ||
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| The twist here is the that Sklansky says it's the final bet, so yes, the pot odds are pretty clear. What Roy is referring to are the odds on a bet that is NOT the final bet. I'm sure Roy would agree with your post (with respect to the river pot odds), but not the rest.........unless there's just some massive misunderstanding going on here. on 5. Sep 2003 10:49 URF wrote: > Roy, you talk about "odds [one is] getting from the pot" and that this is not based > on purely "the current amount in the pot at the time of the call". This disagreement > might be a matter of terminology. If by "odds [one is] getting from the pot" you mean > Pot Odds, this IS defined as what the current pot is laying you, and nothing more. > Quote from The Theory of Poker: > > "Pot odds are the odds the pot is giving you for calling a bet. If there is $50 in > the pot and the final bet was $10, you are getting 5-to-1 odds for your call." [p. > 35] > > Then of course there are Effective Odds and Implied Odds and Reverse Implied Odds, > and all these should of course be used, and that is what you are saying, but it kind > of sounds like you are saying that Pot Odds would mean the whole thing, which it > doesn't with the generally accepted terminology. > > -URF > | ||
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| Re: Pot Odds a la Roy Cooke, flintsword, 6. Sep 2003 23:08 | ||
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| Ok, ... I am game. Can you suggest some articles or specific books that go into DETAIL your calculation of implied odds as opposed to the current pot odds. If you have written about it in an article, just point me in that direction, I will find the articles. flintsword | ||
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