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Server Time: 10/11/2008 12:48:49 PM PACIFIC |
 Another probability question, frank snyder, 4. Sep 2003 20:47 | ||
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| Say I have As and Kd, flop comes spade spade spade. If another spade falls, I have the nut flush. On the flop someone bets out and there is a raise, should I call and hope for the 4th spade on board, or muck it? what are my odds of hitting the nut flush ? | ||
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| Re: Another probability question, Angel, 4. Sep 2003 21:25 | ||
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| on 4. Sep 2003 20:47 frank snyder wrote: > Say I have As and Kd, flop comes spade spade spade. If another spade falls, I > have the nut flush. On the flop someone bets out and there is a raise, should I > call and hope for the 4th spade on board, or muck it? what are my odds of > hitting the nut flush ? Whether to call a bet and a raise is based on the pot odds, so whether you call is going to be based on a relation between the size of the pot and the odds of hitting. The size of the pot will vary but the odds of hitting are constant. Your odds of hitting the flush on the turn are 9/47 - or about 19%. Your odds of hitting the flush on the river if you do not hit on the turn are 9/46 or about 19.5%. The odds of hitting the flush with 2 cards to come are calculated by subtracting the likelihood of missing your flush from 100%. There are 38 cards that do not make your flush on the turn out of 47 remaining cards; and 37 out of 46 on the river so: (38/47*37/46) = 1406/2162 or 0.65%. Therefore, the chance of hitting your flush is 100% - 65% or 35%. | ||
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| Re: Another probability question, Roy Cooke, 5. Sep 2003 06:17 | ||
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| Wow...Good work Angel :-) Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke on 4. Sep 2003 21:25 Angel wrote: > on 4. Sep 2003 20:47 frank snyder wrote: > > Say I have As and Kd, flop comes spade spade spade. If another spade falls, I > > have the nut flush. On the flop someone bets out and there is a raise, should I > > > call and hope for the 4th spade on board, or muck it? what are my odds of > > hitting the nut flush ? > > Whether to call a bet and a raise is based on the pot odds, so whether you call is > going to be based on a relation between the size of the pot and the odds of hitting. > The size of the pot will vary but the odds of hitting are constant. Your odds of > hitting the flush on the turn are 9/47 - or about 19%. Your odds of hitting the > flush on the river if you do not hit on the turn are 9/46 or about 19.5%. The odds > of hitting the flush with 2 cards to come are calculated by subtracting the > likelihood of missing your flush from 100%. There are 38 cards that do not make your > flush on the turn out of 47 remaining cards; and 37 out of 46 on the river so: > (38/47*37/46) = 1406/2162 or 0.65%. Therefore, the chance of hitting your flush is > 100% - 65% or 35%. | ||
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| Re: Another probability question, Jabarkas, 5. Sep 2003 09:49 | ||
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| Something to think about here, though: when you're calculating the number of spades left in the deck, you have to consider that someone could already have a flush- particularly the post flop raiser in this case. If somebody already has it, that means there's only 7 spades left, so the odds of you hitting drop considerably. | ||
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| Re: Another probability question, chasepoker, 5. Sep 2003 10:06 | ||
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| That is a very good point by Jabarkas also you need consider the implied odds as well as the pot odds as had been written about a lot today remember the nut flush when 2 other people are calling the bets on the flop all one suit will often mean you are looking at a K of that suit and maybe also the Q both of which will pay you off so you have to take this into account. on 5. Sep 2003 09:49 Jabarkas wrote: > Something to think about here, though: when you're calculating the number of spades left > in the deck, you have to consider that someone could already have a flush- particularly > the post flop raiser in this case. If somebody already has it, that means there's only 7 > spades left, so the odds of you hitting drop considerably. Chasepoker | ||
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