|
||
|
||
|
Server Time: 11/20/2008 10:03:23 AM PACIFIC |
 Probability question, Machinegun68, 4. Sep 2003 19:44 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| This is probably a really dumb question, but I am horrible at math and it's been about 8 years since high school :-) How do I calculate odds of hitting a card on the turn AND the river or both? For example, I have pocket sixes. Flop comes 872. I know that the odds of hitting that six on the turn is 2/47 or 23.5:1 odds. If the turn comes a J, my odds of hitting a six are slightly reduced to 2/46 or 23:1 odds. What is the probability of hitting a six on either the turn or river? would it be 2/47 * 2/46? Screw that, I want both the sixes. How do I figure that out? What I am essentially asking is, if I hold pocket sixes and don't hit my set on the flop, what pot odds do I need to see both the turn and the river? 23.5:1 to see just the turn? Thanks for any help in advance. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Probability question, Angel, 4. Sep 2003 20:16 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 4. Sep 2003 19:44 Machinegun68 wrote: > How do I calculate odds of hitting a card on the turn AND the river or both? > For example, I have pocket sixes. Flop comes 872. I know that the odds of > hitting that six on the turn is 2/47 or 23.5:1 odds. If the turn comes a J, my > odds of hitting a six are slightly reduced to 2/46 or 23:1 odds. > > What is the probability of hitting a six on either the turn or river? would it > be 2/47 * 2/46? Screw that, I want both the sixes. How do I figure that out? > Although you didn't ask, I'd feel I was being remiss if I didn't point out that hitting a 6 on the turn would make a straight possible - and a Jack on the turn does the same thing - so even in the absence of a larger set - you have to concern yourself that if you make your hand it's no good. Hitting the 6 on the turn is 23.5:1 as you correctly pointed out - hitting a 6 on the turn and making quads on the river is 2/47*1/46 or about 0.09% or 1081:1. > What I am essentially asking is, if I hold pocket sixes and don't hit my set on > the flop, what pot odds do I need to see both the turn and the river? 23.5:1 to > see just the turn? Thanks for any help in advance. The chances of missing your 6 on turn and river are: 45/47*44/46 or 1980/2162 or 91.6%. Therefore you have an 8.4% chance of hitting on the turn and/or the river. If you want to calculate the odds of hitting one and only one 6 (as this includes the possibility of two running sixes) you must subtract the probability of this likelihood, which as we determined earlier, is 0.09% - so the odds of hitting one six on turn and river is approximately 8.3%. I would suggest that it's a pretty rare hand in which you are getting anywhere close to the right pot odds to call - the exception may be when it is a large pot by the flop and your single opponent is all-in with a partial bet - or a NL game in which he let you in cheap but will call an oversized bet if you hit. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Probability question, Angel, 4. Sep 2003 20:20 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| correction of error: The "45/47*44/46 or 1980/2162" calculation was sufficient for calculating only one six on turn or river. You do not need to subtract the 0.09%. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Probability question, Machinegun68, 4. Sep 2003 21:29 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Thanks. BTW I was not thinking of a possible straight draw and just wanted to represent a garbage flop that didn't help 66. I took 14:1 pot odds on this situation (small-medium pair attempting a set) a couple times yesterday and was wondering how mathematically correct it was. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Probability question, JaggedEj, 5. Sep 2003 14:38 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| It wasn't clear to be what you meant. If you're looking for odds that you will hit the 6 on EITHER the turn OR the River. it's 2/47 + 2/46 For statistics and logic, you can usually map + to OR and * to AND | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| POKER FORUM HOME | POKER FORUM | LINK TO US | ARCHIVE | ONLINE POKER | Copyright 2002, United Poker Forum |
|
Getting Started |
UPF Tournaments |
Poker News, Views, Rules |
Poker Strategy & Psychology |
Money and Bankroll Poker Bonuses & Promotions | World Series of Poker (WSOP) | Play Online Poker | Poker Odds & Statistics | Tournament Poker | Poker Books, Videos & Learning Tools Looking for a Poker Game | Poker Bad Beats | Not Quite Poker | Quizzes and Polls | Forum Suggestions & Bugs |
|
|
|
|
Interesting Links: Online Poker | Free Poker Games | United Poker Network |
|