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Server Time: 12/1/2008 5:15:02 PM PACIFIC |
 Above Average Hand v. Poor Hand, Stl10202, 2. Sep 2003 10:23 | ||
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| I was playing in a multi table tourney last night and I'm right below average stack about an hour in. I've created the table image of being a very tight player (at least until I got some money). I get AQ offsuit and decide to go all-in after most of the table folded, blinds were still to act. All fold except an idiot with Q7 offsuit (He had just above average stack). He flops a set of 7s and beats me. I'm wondering why he called so I ask and he says, "Why not, mediocre hands end up beating KK." I'm like, you idiot, no they don't. So my question is, statistically, how often would a mediocre hand(not suited or paired hole cards) end up beating superior cards? Say out of 300 hands, how often would I have won is what I'm really asking? Thanks | ||
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| Re: Above Average Hand v. Poor Hand, stdioh, 2. Sep 2003 11:08 | ||
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| If you look at AA against other hands, it tends to do better against good hands than bad ones. For instance AK is dominated, so it's a really big dog, whereas an underpair or live undercards will have a shot at getting there. In both cases AA win about 80% of the time, so with bad cards against AA you're looking at winning 60 out of 300 hands. | ||
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| Re: Above Average Hand v. Poor Hand, stdioh, 2. Sep 2003 11:09 | ||
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| Of course 77 is a favourite against AQ. Heads up 77 isn't that bad a hand. | ||
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| Re: Above Average Hand v. Poor Hand, shorn, 2. Sep 2003 11:22 | ||
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| Considering he has only three outs in the deck to beat you (barring some freak str8), I would guess you are around a 4 to 1 favorite on this hand. In my mind though, the bigger question is why did you go all-in with the hand instead of making a 4x or 5x raise? Sure, he still calls you for that much, but then when the flop comes no help to you, you can get away from the hand and still be alive. I can't think of a hand (AA even) where I would go all-in as the first bettor only 1 hour into a tournament with an average stack. That just doesn't make sense to me. | ||
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| Re: Above Average Hand v. Poor Hand, Jav, 2. Sep 2003 13:49 | ||
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| Shorn has got it right. You did experience a bad beat, but if you go all-in pre-flop with A,Q you're asking for trouble. You might do that if you are short-stacked and the blinds are high, but generally you want to make a decent sized raise. You don't want to race with A,Q. Too many bad things can happen, and in a NL tournament you don't have another chance. My game has improved immensely when I stopped making big overbets. | ||
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| Re: Above Average Hand v. Poor Hand, JaggedEj, 2. Sep 2003 14:47 | ||
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| Not to mention you dont' give your opponent nearly as many chances to make a mistake. It's all in or nothing | ||
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| Re: Above Average Hand v. Poor Hand, dan, 3. Sep 2003 02:39 | ||
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| It's true...got beat with my AQ in the BB with AK in the SB who just called my BB bet and called my raise. We were the only two in the hand. That one hurt. | ||
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| Re: Above Average Hand v. Poor Hand, Stl10202, 2. Sep 2003 15:36 | ||
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| The reason I went all-in was because the blinds were gonna kill me very shortly, I had to make a move and AQ offsuit is not too bad considering that I built the image that I am a very tight player. Also, trying to steal the blinds alone would put me over or around average stack (blinds were steep). I guess you had to be there or be in my position. I couldn't raise just a little because if I did, I would've been practically all in. Also, it was more like 1.5-2 hours, sorry about that. But I'll take your strategy and try to apply it, but I don't think it applied in this case. Thanks shorn and all others. | ||
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| Re: Above Average Hand v. Poor Hand, kennycatkiller, 2. Sep 2003 18:21 | ||
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| You were a tad better than a 3 to 1 favorite. But, remember, even a pair of deuces would have been a slight favorite over your AQ offsuit. Sure, it takes an idiot to call a substantial raise with Q7 offsuit. But, it is a fact of life that our beloved game of poker is played by a substantial numer of idiots, and even idiots get lucky sometimes. You might have been better off raising 3 or 4 times the big blind. That way, if the flop is scary, you can fold without further damage. Better Luck Next Time HONEST_KEN | ||
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