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Server Time: 12/1/2008 5:11:40 PM PACIFIC |
 Bad Beat odds, Scott A. Shoemaker, 1. Sep 2003 11:30 | ||
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| Greetings: I am the manager of a 5 table poker room in northern Nevada. To stimulate business from locals, I'd like to "loosen" the bad beat requirements for Hold Em and 7stud. By my calculations, I'd like to see a "bad beat" about once in every 1,800 hands. When I was in the San Francisco Bay Area, people who respectfully refered to themselves as "math weenies" would regularly post answers to such questions. Now, I am posting here for the first time, hoping those with mathmatical expertise and/or computer simulation programs will give me a projection of where to "set the bar". So, here are some details: Assume a 9-handed No-Fold-Em Hold Em game. Any two, all the way through the river. ANY COMBINATION of the BEST 2 HANDS at the showdown qualifies. Hold em Examples: 66692 on board. 6,3 vs. 9,9 would be "9's full of 6's being beaten. Board: AAAQQ with K,K vs. 2,3 WOULD qualify as "Aces full of Queens" being beaten. My question is: Where shall I set the minimum hand to qualify as a bad beat so that it gets hit about once every 1,800 hands? Someone suggested "Tens full of sixes" for Hold Em, and I've had no estimates for a seven-handed 7card stud game. If it is appropriate, I will post my personal e-mail address for those that don't wish to respond to this Forum. Remembering that this is my first posting, please feel free to post questions, answers, and criticism. I will do my best to comply and reply. Thanks for any help. Scottyshoe | ||
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| Re: Bad Beat odds, stdioh, 2. Sep 2003 11:45 | ||
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| This is a difficult piece of math to do without sending a computer on a brute force attack or a Monte Carlo simulation. Basically what you've got here is a probability that two hands of at least a given strength come up on some deal. The problem is that they tend to clump together so when you have a full house on board, chances of somebody beating it are very high. I would suggest that you break it down into cases of what the board looks like and for each case, work out the percentage of boards in that class. Then for each class, work out the chances of two hands of a given strength given that board type. Without doing a proper simulation or doing all the math, this will be the best way to figure it out. Fom experience, however, I would say that 1,800 hands in a cardroom is usually about 50 hours. Tens full of sixes or higher would probably be beat *a lot more than once* in 50 hours of play...especially since you don't have to use both of your hole cards to make your hand. If I were to engineer this, I would say that the standard would have to be at least aces full beaten. Erring on the side of caution would be a good idea on this one. | ||
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| Re: Bad Beat odds, Scott A. Shoemaker, 6. Sep 2003 10:16 | ||
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| on 1. Sep 2003 11:30 Scott A. Shoemaker wrote: > Greetings: > I am the manager of a 5 table poker room in northern Nevada. > To stimulate business from locals, I'd like to "loosen" the bad beat > requirements for Hold Em and 7stud. > By my calculations, I'd like to see a "bad beat" about once in every 1,800 > hands. > When I was in the San Francisco Bay Area, people who respectfully refered > to themselves as "math weenies" would regularly post answers to such questions. > Now, I am posting here for the first time, hoping those with mathmatical > expertise and/or computer simulation programs will give me a projection of where > to "set the bar". So, here are some details: > Assume a 9-handed No-Fold-Em Hold Em game. Any two, all the way through the > river. > ANY COMBINATION of the BEST 2 HANDS at the showdown qualifies. Hold em > Examples: 66692 on board. 6,3 vs. 9,9 would be "9's full of 6's being beaten. > Board: AAAQQ with K,K vs. 2,3 WOULD qualify as "Aces full of Queens" being > beaten. > My question is: Where shall I set the minimum hand to qualify as a bad beat > so that it gets hit about once every 1,800 hands? Someone suggested "Tens full > of sixes" for Hold Em, and I've had no estimates for a seven-handed 7card stud > game. > If it is appropriate, I will post my personal e-mail address for those > that don't wish to respond to this Forum. > Remembering that this is my first posting, please feel free to post > questions, answers, and criticism. I will do my best to comply and reply. Thanks > for any help. Scottyshoe Thus far, only one response. Can anyone suggest a forum where this topic would get a bit more attention? Thanks Again, Scott. | ||
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| Re: Bad Beat odds, Angel, 6. Sep 2003 11:37 | ||
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| Brian Alspach did this work back toward the end of 2000 and posted it on his website. I tried to access it but it appears to be down for the moment. He is Professor Emeritus at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia - I don't know when the site will be back up but you might call the school and find out. (604) 291-3331 I hope this helps. | ||
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