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Server Time: 12/1/2008 6:39:35 PM PACIFIC |
 What are the odds?, pernell4, 28. Aug 2003 20:08 | ||
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| While playing party poker the other night, I had pocket kings and the flop came KAK to give me 4 kings. I bet big as expected only to lose to 4 Aces. What are the odds of that happening? It makes me wonder ... | ||
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| Re: What are the odds?, davideasg, 28. Aug 2003 21:44 | ||
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| Funny you posted this. I had a conversation tonight with someone who mentioned something called "action hands". Hands meant to inspire two people to bet heavy. This increases the pot, and thus increases the rake. Someething which Party Poker has b een accused of. Is this theory out there or does it have any credence? | ||
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| Re: What are the odds?, Squaliform, 29. Aug 2003 03:14 | ||
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| Don't walk outside during a thunderstorm. Lightning has a better chance of striking you than you have losing with four kings. | ||
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| Re: What are the odds?, Snorbolus, 29. Aug 2003 04:42 | ||
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| In a monte carlo simulation (1000000000000 hands), KcKs wins at showdown, 99.78% of the time (453:1 favorite), after a flop of KhKdAc. It only looses to quad aces or a straight flush. I think that you were right to get your money in. Snorbolus on 28. Aug 2003 20:08 pernell4 wrote: > While playing party poker the other night, I had pocket kings and the flop came > KAK to give me 4 kings. I bet big as expected only to lose to 4 Aces. What > are the odds of that happening? > > It makes me wonder ... | ||
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| Re: What are the odds?, WilliamS, 29. Aug 2003 06:06 | ||
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| on 29. Aug 2003 04:42 Snorbolus wrote: > In a monte carlo simulation (1000000000000 hands), KcKs wins at showdown, 99.78% of > the time (453:1 favorite), after a flop of KhKdAc. It only looses to quad aces or a > straight flush. I think that you were right to get your money in. > > Snorbolus > > on 28. Aug 2003 20:08 pernell4 wrote: > > While playing party poker the other night, I had pocket kings and the flop came > > KAK to give me 4 kings. I bet big as expected only to lose to 4 Aces. What > > are the odds of that happening? > > > > It makes me wonder ... That means that .22% of the time its going to happen. With the high number of players on that site it probably happens quite a bit. I feel this is another illustration of how online sites get a bad rap when the cards are actually just running their course. Was it a tough beat? Yes. Does it mean the site is rigged? NO! | ||
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| Re: What are the odds?, Snorbolus, 29. Aug 2003 06:56 | ||
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| on 29. Aug 2003 06:06 WilliamS wrote: >....... > That means that .22% of the time its going to happen......... To put it another way: on average one time out of every 454. Another thing to consider is that if you get called your opponent will almost certainly have at least an ace. This makes it very much more likely that those times you are called you will be drawn out on. Nevertheless, it is still a great opportunity. I would be much more concerned about not being called than about being called and then drawn out on. Snorbolus | ||
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| Re: What are the odds?, Buckeye Mike, 29. Aug 2003 07:06 | ||
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| I was party poker last week with K K and the flop was K A K . I had someone betting into me, unfortunately it was a limit tournament which I normally don't play. But he had nothing and I knocked him out. | ||
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| Re: What are the odds?, stdioh, 29. Aug 2003 16:08 | ||
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| Given that board and your hand you can assume that there are 47 unseen cards left in the deck. One of three remaining aces must land on the board in the next 2 cards, you have a chance of 3/47+44/47*3/46 = 1/8 ... so 1 out of every 8 times the board will pair an ace there. There's also a chance that 2 aces come to the board which is 3/47*2/46= 1/360 Now if you assume that one ace came, what are the chances that one of the other 9 players was dealt AA? Well, there are only 2 aces left in the deck, so each players has a deck of 45 unknown cards to choose 2 from. 45 choose 2 is 990, so each player gets a 1/990 chance, but since they are playing next to eachother this goes up. Player 1: 1/990 chance of 2 aces. If he gets 1, then nobody gets 2. Player 2: 1/903 if player 1 had no aces. Player 3: 1/820 if players 1 & 2 had no aces. Player 4: 1/741 ... Player 5: 1/666 Player 6: 1/595 Player 7: 1/528 Player 8: 1/465 Player 9: 1/406 Chance of a player getting just an ace out of the deck is 2/45+43/45*2/44= 1/ 11.38 but this too diminishes across the same scale as the above. Thus we can just approximate by recurring divisions by 10. 1/990 + 1/903*1.1 + 1/820*1.2 + 1/741*1.3 + 1/666*1.4 + 1/595*1.5 + 1/528*1.6 + 1/465*1.7 + 1/406*1.8 giving about a 1/99 chance of another player getting AA given that board. That means there would be about a 1/800 chance of somebody beating you by having AA and catching another ace on the board. Now the other side is easier. There would be only 1 out to each player and if any gets it you lose, so you can do the math much more simply. There are 18 cards out of 45 remaining to be dealt and you want to know if one is an ace so you very simply have an 18/45 chance of getting the ace. Thus you have about an 18/360*45 or 1/900 chance that somebody beat you by having 1 ace and catching 2 on the board. These events are mutually exclusive so you can add them to get a 1/800+1/900=~ 1/425 So to answer your question, there is a 1/425 chance that somebody beats you with quad aces. And Don't forget that you can also lose to a straight flush. Without doing the math on that one, I'd guess that you're probably about a 300:1 favourite in total. | ||
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