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Running bad, playing stupid. What to do, other than retire?, Charles Kincy, 28. Aug 2003 02:15
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This is kinda long, but I hope it helps you as much as it helps me.

I made a reasonable profit playing poker last year. Certainly, $8k is not enough to live off of, and while $8k sounds impressive, given that it took about 1000 hours to make that $8k, it's not an impressive earn rate. Most of that cash was earned in 4-8 games, though, and 4-8 games are tough in the PNW, so I'm not upset about it. Making 1BB/hour shows that I have a lot to improve, but I don't totally suck, either.

And then I got stupid and decided to move up to 10-20 and 12-24. These are our top-limit games in the PNW, so those have the best players in the region--they're more like 40-80 games down south. What the f--- was I thinking? So in about 400 hours I've blown off $2400 (I have way fewer hours as I've found a "real" job so I have fewer chances to play).

I know most of my problem was that the games I played in were no good. Maybe I wasn't the "pigeon," but if everyone at a public table is of roughly equal skill, you're still going to lose money. And with the economy going to shit, finding a "good" game in this area is hard, even at the entry-level 3-6 limit. And sometimes, I was clearly the worst player, though I left as soon as I figured it out. I need to learn how to detect this earlier.

OK, so after flailing around a bit, I went back to the Hideaway up in Shoreline. The great thing about the Hideaway is that the players are, by and large, either weak and tight or loose and hyper-agressive--there are few, few solid players. But that's also the bad thing about the Hideaway--to make money against loose and aggressive players, you must (a) have a shitload of cash, and (b) not run bad.

But that's been the source of my trouble. I have run so horribly bad. This nonsense has been going on for 400 hours. I won't bore you with the details, but my luck is tragic. Case in point--there's a guy who came up with a method of measuring "luck"--basically you count pots with one stack and blinds paid with another stack (subtly, of course). The optimum ratio is different for everyone--mine is 0.8 pots per blind paid--at this ratio, if the game is good, I can make a decent profit. You can also use this to measure the game--if you are up at, say, 1.1 and still stuck, the game is bad and you should leave. Whereas if you're ahead but only at 0.7, the game is great, and you should stay because your luck should improve.

What has my number been for the last 100 hours? 0.4. That's right, I'm winning half as many pots as normal. Now, you can argue that winning pots isn't how you make money--you dont' need to go there, I agree 100%. But you can't make money without winning at least enough pots to pay for your blinds, right?

OK, so what? Everyone gets lucky; everyone gets unlucky. But I am a human being, and my patience is limited. I can weather bad runs for 8-20-50-even 100 hours. But 400? I think it's starting to seriously damage my play. I'm starting to lose value betting opportunities, and I tend to fold too much. I will fold marginal hands rather than play them, rather uncritically, because I'm afraid of wasting yet more money. I'm starting to check and call more than betting and raising. I give up my blinds without a fight, encouraging people to steal from me.

I'm becoming weak-tight, and it sucks. And if I play this way at the Hideaway, I'm complete toast.

How do I break out of this disastrous slump? I've already taken some steps.

1) Strictly limited playing time--no more than 8 hours in a day, no more than 16 in a week. There is only one exception--if I am absolutely crushing a game, I will stay as long as the game is good and I have no other obligations. This, of course, hasn't happened yet. But this prevents the sinking feeling of hopelessness that always strikes me around the 8th-9th hour and causes me to hit that "Threshold of Misery" that Caro likes to talk about.

2) Build the bankroll from the outside, now that I can. I paid some bills and gathered up some cash, so now I don't feel like a bad run of cards over 8 hours is going to ruin me financially. This builds risk-taking confidence, which is necessary to drain money from loose-aggressive types.

3) Stop measuring my bad luck. Now that I've established that I've been unlucky, and not playing horribly (though not as good as I should), it's time to move on.

4) Return to basics. Even though I've developed my poker "soft skills" that let me adjust hand values for different situations, I fear that I have given up a lot of cash by not being aggressive up front. In games at the Hideaway, you need to get the money in early and keep pounding as long as you're sure you're ahead, and then try to draw a bluff at the end with a check. This means that I need to go back to the strategy I learned more-or-less from Turbo Texas Hold 'em. That doesn't mean I won't add skills I've learned in the last year when appropriate, it's just that I need to make sure I got the basics right first.

5) Be fearless. Pound away when I think I might have the best of it, rather than demanding that I be absolutely sure I have the nuts.

So, now that I've basically thought out loud for an hour, what do you all think? How have you dealt with running bad? How did you keep your sanity and your skills intact so you could avoid going broke and succeed once the luck returned?
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Re: Running bad, playing stupid. What to do, other than retire?, Roy Cooke, 28. Aug 2003 05:46
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Hi Charles

I started my Hold'em career at the Hideaway in North Seattle about 30 years ago.....Have they improved the food yet? LOL

The Hideaway was a good training ground for my move to Vegas.

That said, overall I like your thinking.....Several things I would add is to your list are:

1.) Take a break for a period of time....Your head seems a little messed up in regards to poker and a break can often do wonders for the soul.

2.) Along the same lines...in an effort to get you feeling positive and to get some endorphins flowing in your brain...Exercise...Get feeling good about yourself......Feeling negative (like it appears you are) is a death spiral in poker....Get out of it! Get some good feelings within yourself....Exercise will also help you relax at the table.

3.) Devote some serious time while you take your break to studying the game....Read My 10 favorite books (Post on UPF a few days ago) by Mark Gregorich (Also a Washington fellow), pick out the ones that apply to the games you play....He has good insights!

4.) Get away from thinking defensively.....This goes back to changing how you feel and your attitudes!

Good Luck :-)
Roy Cooke



ton 28. Aug 2003 02:15 Charles Kincy wrote:
> This is kinda long, but I hope it helps you as much as it helps me.
>
> I made a reasonable profit playing poker last year. Certainly, $8k is not
> enough to live off of, and while $8k sounds impressive, given that it took about
> 1000 hours to make that $8k, it's not an impressive earn rate. Most of that cash
> was earned in 4-8 games, though, and 4-8 games are tough in the PNW, so I'm not
> upset about it. Making 1BB/hour shows that I have a lot to improve, but I don't
> totally suck, either.
>
> And then I got stupid and decided to move up to 10-20 and 12-24. These are our
> top-limit games in the PNW, so those have the best players in the
> region--they're more like 40-80 games down south. What the f--- was I thinking?
> So in about 400 hours I've blown off $2400 (I have way fewer hours as I've found
> a "real" job so I have fewer chances to play).
>
> I know most of my problem was that the games I played in were no good. Maybe I
> wasn't the "pigeon," but if everyone at a public table is of roughly equal
> skill, you're still going to lose money. And with the economy going to shit,
> finding a "good" game in this area is hard, even at the entry-level 3-6 limit.
> And sometimes, I was clearly the worst player, though I left as soon as I
> figured it out. I need to learn how to detect this earlier.
>
> OK, so after flailing around a bit, I went back to the Hideaway up in
> Shoreline. The great thing about the Hideaway is that the players are, by and
> large, either weak and tight or loose and hyper-agressive--there are few, few
> solid players. But that's also the bad thing about the Hideaway--to make money
> against loose and aggressive players, you must (a) have a shitload of cash, and
> (b) not run bad.
>
> But that's been the source of my trouble. I have run so horribly bad. This
> nonsense has been going on for 400 hours. I won't bore you with the details, but
> my luck is tragic. Case in point--there's a guy who came up with a method of
> measuring "luck"--basically you count pots with one stack and blinds paid with
> another stack (subtly, of course). The optimum ratio is different for
> everyone--mine is 0.8 pots per blind paid--at this ratio, if the game is good, I
> can make a decent profit. You can also use this to measure the game--if you are
> up at, say, 1.1 and still stuck, the game is bad and you should leave. Whereas
> if you're ahead but only at 0.7, the game is great, and you should stay because
> your luck should improve.
>
> What has my number been for the last 100 hours? 0.4. That's right, I'm winning
> half as many pots as normal. Now, you can argue that winning pots isn't how you
> make money--you dont' need to go there, I agree 100%. But you can't make money
> without winning at least enough pots to pay for your blinds, right?
>
> OK, so what? Everyone gets lucky; everyone gets unlucky. But I am a human
> being, and my patience is limited. I can weather bad runs for 8-20-50-even 100
> hours. But 400? I think it's starting to seriously damage my play. I'm starting
> to lose value betting opportunities, and I tend to fold too much. I will fold
> marginal hands rather than play them, rather uncritically, because I'm afraid of
> wasting yet more money. I'm starting to check and call more than betting and
> raising. I give up my blinds without a fight, encouraging people to steal from
> me.
>
> I'm becoming weak-tight, and it sucks. And if I play this way at the Hideaway,
> I'm complete toast.
>
> How do I break out of this disastrous slump? I've already taken some steps.
>
> 1) Strictly limited playing time--no more than 8 hours in a day, no more than
> 16 in a week. There is only one exception--if I am absolutely crushing a game, I
> will stay as long as the game is good and I have no other obligations. This, of
> course, hasn't happened yet. But this prevents the sinking feeling of
> hopelessness that always strikes me around the 8th-9th hour and causes me to hit
> that "Threshold of Misery" that Caro likes to talk about.
>
> 2) Build the bankroll from the outside, now that I can. I paid some bills and
> gathered up some cash, so now I don't feel like a bad run of cards over 8 hours
> is going to ruin me financially. This builds risk-taking confidence, which is
> necessary to drain money from loose-aggressive types.
>
> 3) Stop measuring my bad luck. Now that I've established that I've been
> unlucky, and not playing horribly (though not as good as I should), it's time to
> move on.
>
> 4) Return to basics. Even though I've developed my poker "soft skills" that let
> me adjust hand values for different situations, I fear that I have given up a
> lot of cash by not being aggressive up front. In games at the Hideaway, you need
> to get the money in early and keep pounding as long as you're sure you're ahead,
> and then try to draw a bluff at the end with a check. This means that I need to
> go back to the strategy I learned more-or-less from Turbo Texas Hold 'em. That
> doesn't mean I won't add skills I've learned in the last year when appropriate,
> it's just that I need to make sure I got the basics right first.
>
> 5) Be fearless. Pound away when I think I might have the best of it, rather
> than demanding that I be absolutely sure I have the nuts.
>
> So, now that I've basically thought out loud for an hour, what do you all
> think? How have you dealt with running bad? How did you keep your sanity and
> your skills intact so you could avoid going broke and succeed once the luck
> returned?
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Re: Running bad, playing stupid. What to do, other than retire?, WilliamS, 28. Aug 2003 06:29
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Roy,
You continue to bring up the "feel good" aspect of poker. That part of a person that is in a positive frame of mind accomplished by a good balance in a healthy life. I still think this is probably the most important aspect of successful poker.
Yesterday, I checked with UB several times and the site was down. I've been running really good but have been very frustrated with their server problems. I got home and low and behold the server was up. I immediately sat down at a game and couldn't wait for the money to come my way. The next thing I knew, I had blown off about 50 big bets. When I sat down, instead of being focused on the players and cards at the table; I was focused on winning some money fast and distracted by several "frustrations" of the day.
I had some bad beats, but I didn't play anywhere close to the way I've been playing. I wasn't in that "healthy" frame of mind and it cost me. I took a 20% hit in my bankroll and was very frustrated the rest of the night. I was tempted to "chase my money"; but instead went to bed early and plan on playing better today.
I'm still frustrated at my setback but can see my mistakes and know they are correctable. I don't know if I could have won any money last night given the situations and the cards, but I could have cut my losses by 30-50% (I feel like) with better, more patient play.
Anyway, I just wanted to stress the importance of what your preaching again. Hopefully remind me again
Will
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Re: Running bad, playing stupid. What to do, other than retire?, Charles Kincy, 28. Aug 2003 11:24
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Yeah, I've been told you're from here, Roy. :) The ownership has changed hands about 3 times, the food is better, and they finally replaced the chips--up until about 6 months ago, they were still using the same chips you were probably using. :)

As for taking a break, I already did that. I have moved up from feeling hopeless to merely feeling annoyed. I was thinking about coming back. :)

Going back and reading all my books is a great idea. I think I'll do that. Thanks for your advice.
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Re: Running bad, playing stupid. What to do, other than retire?, stdioh, 28. Aug 2003 10:14
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HA! I just read this post on LJ this morning. I'm Doooook there.
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