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Server Time: 9/4/2008 9:14:09 PM PACIFIC |
 guarding against the slow play, ncskiier, 25. Aug 2003 19:09 | ||
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| Recently I have fallen prey to the slow play. I get the top pair on the flop and bet out to protect my hand. The turn comes and again I place a protection bet. Then the flop, again I bet. The guy that has checked to me three times, this time check raises . Then I either call or fold. Either way I lose to two pair or trips that this guy has had since the flop. What the hell? This has happened to me several times this week. Help?? | ||
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| Re: guarding against the slow play, Paul Stine, 25. Aug 2003 20:19 | ||
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| on 25. Aug 2003 19:09 ncskiier wrote: > Recently I have fallen prey to the slow play. I get the top pair on the flop > and bet out to protect my hand. The turn comes and again I place a protection > bet. Then the flop, again I bet. The guy that has checked to me three times, > this time check raises . Then I either call or fold. Either way I lose to two > pair or trips that this guy has had since the flop. What the hell? This has > happened to me several times this week. Help?? This is the kind of stuff Roy likes to do, but I'm gonna take a whack at it. (Roy: let me know how I do.) It sucks to get slow-played. That being said it is great to spring that trap on someone else. Consider the situation you are in: (I assume this is heads up on the end.) You have lead the betting all the way and our opponent has called along behind, faithfully. You see the river card and it hasn't helped you or given your opponent any obvious completions for draws. Now, all but the dullest pencil in the box will need to have at least *something* at this point in order to call your bet on the river, wouldn't you agree? So, it seems we have four basic cases: Case 0. Your opponent checks and so do you (either he has nothing or he was slowplaying and you didn't bet for him): net gain = 0, your risk = 0 Case 1. Your opponent has nothing and folds to your bet: net gain = 0, your risk = 1 big bet Case 2. Your opponent has eough to call, but not enough to beat you: net gain = 1 big bet, your risk = 1 big bet Case 3. Your opponent has been slowplaying or caught well on the river and checkraises you and you call: net gain = - 2 big bets, your risk = 2 big bets Now, if we assign a probabilty of occurance to each event, we can figure what action maximizes our net gain. For example, assume Case 0 occurs 10% of the time Case 1 occurs 20% of the time Case 2 occurs 60% of the time Case 3 occurs 10% of the time (I just made these percentages up, so your mileage may vary.) So in cases 0 and 1, you net gain is 0 in case 2 you have a net gain of 1 big bet 60% of the time = 0.6 big bets, and in case 3, you have a net gain of -2 big bets 10% of the time = -0.2 big bets. This says that you have an overall net gain of (0.6 + -0.2) = 0.4 big bets by betting and calling if check-raised. Of course this analysis only applies when you have position on your opponent. There are some lower frequency cases like where you bet, get check-raised, call and win or where your opponent bets into you and you call and win or lose. So, you need to decide how often each case applies to you and act to maximize your win. Paul Stine College Station, TX | ||
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| Re: guarding against the slow play, Barry T, 26. Aug 2003 02:45 | ||
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| Hi. I am not Rpy either, but I would say you have done well. Thhere are two main things to remember here: 1 - While these may stick out in your mind, it is very hard for your opponent to keep making very good hands. When it happens that he has a terrific hand while you have a very good one, you are going to lose money. That's part of poker. 2 - DO NOT let this deter you from betting when you have a good hand. I see so many people check the river because they are afraid that they may get check-raised and lose. As Paul points out, you still make more money betting the end (and I make it more that 60% Paul), So keep on going and do not let this bother you. In fact, having your opponent slow play until the river is a good thing. After all, if he raised the flop, you might have reraised (or more) and still lost an extra bet on the end. I am not a big fan of the type of slowplaying you are encountering. | ||
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| Re: guarding against the slow play, Paul Stine, 26. Aug 2003 09:39 | ||
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| on 26. Aug 2003 02:45 Barry T wrote: > Hi. I am not Rpy either, but I would say you have done well. > > Thhere are two main things to remember here: > > 1 - While these may stick out in your mind, it is very hard for your opponent to keep > making very good hands. When it happens that he has a terrific hand while you have a very > good one, you are going to lose money. That's part of poker. > > 2 - DO NOT let this deter you from betting when you have a good hand. I see so many > people check the river because they are afraid that they may get check-raised and lose. > As Paul points out, you still make more money betting the end (and I make it more that 60% > Paul), > > So keep on going and do not let this bother you. In fact, having your opponent slow play > until the river is a good thing. After all, if he raised the flop, you might have > reraised (or more) and still lost an extra bet on the end. I am not a big fan of the type > of slowplaying you are encountering. Yeah, I thought 60% was a lowball figure, too. But, hey, math is hard. In fact you could probably incrase the 60% figure to 80% and decrease the others accordingly and not be too far off. Of course, this makes playing straightforwardly even more correct. Paul Stine College Station, TX | ||
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