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Server Time: 9/5/2008 1:13:06 AM PACIFIC |
 Price/Expectation, Roy Cooke, 24. Aug 2003 18:25 | ||
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| Compute the price on ALL your plays............ It is a very important concept in all plays and will help you acquire feel.......When analyzing a play, count the bets and the expectation you gain/lose from them....................Think in terms of expectation........ When considering a call with a hand that you think to be second best, determine the implied price you are receiving from the pot.....That includes the chance your hand will win, the propensity (include texture of opponents) of winning extra money over and above what is already in the pot.......The true price of the call including the chance it will get raised behind you.........When determining if you should call without the best hand, take into consideration that the hand you make may not be good....Even if there is a small chance that your hand is no good, you must increase your odds considerably. Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke | ||
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| Re: Price/Expectation, .Maudie., 24. Aug 2003 19:32 | ||
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| I am fairly new to the world of 'serious' poker - I've been playing online since about March/April starting out in the peewee league (free tables) and have moved into the minors (.25/.50 low limit hold em-still a baby) - I've have been doing my homework by reading the leading books on the subject - which helped my play tremendously - I can analyze my play fairly decently ( I know when my play starts to get stupid...) - I'm not losing badly, and mostly stay even, and have even battled back from few chips to many - BUT - I cannot seem to turn the corner to seeing a steady gain. I know one of my chief problems is attention to the pot odds - mainly because I am mathmatically challenged - so I have made my own odds charts to refer to during play (a nice perk to online play), but I'm not sure I'm using the correct odds. I've been using a chart that calculates the odds each for making a hand on the Turn and then on the River and then both like so: 8 outs: Turn-4.88:1 River-4.75:1 Both-:2.2:1 I've used the Turn & River odds, but have seen the 'Both' odds quoted in most of my reading. Which should I be using in order to realize full value for my bets? Your help wll be greatly appreciated! ----Maud | ||
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| Re: Price/Expectation, Paul Stine, 24. Aug 2003 20:51 | ||
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| Maud, Where you have 'Both', I assume you mean 'Either' in that one of your outs on either the turn or the river would complete your draw. When using the 'Either' number you need to compute your odds based on the total amount it will cost you to see both cards. Lets say you have that open ended straight draw and have 8 outs to complete your draw. (We won't worry about any flush in this case, so we will make the board unsuited.) Let's assume that you are in a weak-passive 1/2 hold'em game, one person leads the betting then there is lots of calling and not much raising. If you think you will have to call a bet on both the flop (1) and the turn (2) (as most likely will be the case) you should compute your pot odds on the expected cost of 3. So, if when you flop that beautiful straight draw there is at least 2.2 * 3 = 6.6 in the pot, you can call away. So, you are in the big blind and there are five limper, the small blind calls and you get to see the flop for free. WooHoo! a free look. There is 7 in the pot. Now here it comes, you flop a nut straight draw, cha-ching! You check hoping for the free card and the under the gun player bets. Pot = 8, two people fold and three call Pot = 11. It is your turn to act. Pot = 11, expected cost = 3 (1 on the flop and 1 on the turn) so the pot is laying you 11:3 odds (call it 3.66:1) on your 2.2:1 call. Ding! you call because you are getting better than proper odds. Since you computed your cost based on the expected price, you should be able to continue as long as there is no raising on the turn, and maybe even then. Note that if someone had raised it would change the numbers, so you might not have adequate odds on the face of it and you might want to evaluate other factors (like if everyone will call the raise.) Sometimes you will hit on the turn, sometimes you will hit on the river and sometimes you will miss completely. But, basically, you need to compare your expected cost to continue to the river to the money in the pot to insure that you have sufficient odds to continue. This method leads you to error a bit on the side of safety, but that is usually a good thing. Let me add that the best way to become comfortable with counting outs is like the best way to get to Carnegie Hall, practice, practice, practice. Try this: Get out your handy deck of 52 and give yourself the kind of starting hand you want to look at. Let say you start with JTs. This is a good hand because it gives us straight draws and flush draws and maybe a little bit of high card value, too. Now deal out a flop. Now count your outs. Think about the cards that help your hand *and* the ones that devistate it. Finished? Deal out another flop using the same two hole cards. You don't need to shuffle between flops, deal down to the bottom. After you deal through the stub 20 or 30 times change your hole cards for another type of holding; flush only, straight only, pairs, garbage hands. Paul Stine College Station, TX on 24. Aug 2003 19:32 .Maudie. wrote: > I am fairly new to the world of 'serious' poker - I've been playing online since > about March/April starting out in the peewee league (free tables) and have moved into > the minors (.25/.50 low limit hold em-still a baby) - I've have been doing my > homework by reading the leading books on the subject - which helped my play > tremendously - I can analyze my play fairly decently ( I know when my play starts to > get stupid...) - I'm not losing badly, and mostly stay even, and have even battled > back from few chips to many - BUT - I cannot seem to turn the corner to seeing a > steady gain. I know one of my chief problems is attention to the pot odds - mainly > because I am mathmatically challenged - so I have made my own odds charts to refer to > during play (a nice perk to online play), but I'm not sure I'm using the correct > odds. I've been using a chart that calculates the odds each for making a hand on the > Turn and then on the River and then both like so: > > 8 outs: Turn-4.88:1 River-4.75:1 Both-:2.2:1 > > I've used the Turn & River odds, but have seen the 'Both' odds quoted in most of my > reading. Which should I be using in order to realize full value for my bets? Your > help wll be greatly appreciated! > > ----Maud | ||
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