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Server Time: 12/1/2008 1:40:16 PM PACIFIC |
 KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Barry T, 23. Aug 2003 01:46 | ||
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| Hi. I would like to continue the discussion on the post called “A Hand with Mason Malmuth.” I am taking issue with Mike Caro’s reply. To review, Formless was asking what to do with KJo in the big blind when raised by an expert (leaving aside whether it is Mason or som eother expert for my reply). I said fold would be a reasonable. Mike said “Both you and Mason played this hand correctly, although you could have each chosen different options as alternatives. It is almost impossible for you to justify folding pre-flop (although some experts so advise), unless you're outmatched against this player and believe you'll lose money from that point on. The reason you should normally call is that the pot is laying you (assuming the small blind is $10) $55 to $15 or 3.67-to-1. True, you'll be in a poor position, acting first, the rest of the way, but these pot odds still mean that if your hand would win just 25 percent of the time, if played to the showdown, it's probably worth the call -- even though strategic decisions make you less likely to reach the showdown than Mason. (There are other considerations, too, making that 25 percent just a rough target, not a set-in-stone guideline.) It turns out that K-J wins much more than that 25 percent showdown target against ANY reasonable set of standards from four seats off the button.” I (Barry) seriously disagree. First, the number one consideration in blind defense is not what your hand is, but how well your opponent plays. If your opponent is a true expert, you should defend very few hands, almost regardless of quality. Next, let us look at KJo. I agree that if you are calling all-in, you should certainly do it. But if there is poker left to be played, calling is probably an error. The question is not who wins how often (though I could form an argument around that as well) but how much money you will make how often. If you happen to hit the flop and you opponent missed (say he raised with 99 and the flop is K72) you will not make much. When you both hit the flop (say he has AK and flop is K72) you will have a hard time not losing some extra bets? If you flop a J, can you play it fast say, JT4), or are you just checking out of position hoping he does not have QQ? The PLAYABILITY of this hand against a top pro makes it a clear long term loser. And I do not care how often it wins in a showdown. If the flop is Q62, his 99 will win all the time, even if a K is coming. BarryT | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Formless, 23. Aug 2003 07:20 | ||
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| Heheheh, lucky me, my first post is a 'wedge issue', all part and parcel of my Divide and Conquer UPF strategy, ;-) Thanks for keeping this thread alive Mr. T. I've corresponded with others on this; it's a really fundamental question worth discussion. I wonder what MM's raising range is on this hand? Something like 88-KQs-AJo? I believe that KJ should fold here because Mason's raise is legit and my hand is dominated and I am out of position, immediate pot odds notwithstanding. There is a big difference between a hand that wins x% of the time and a hand that gets x% of the money; heads up limit holdem plays funny, especially at higher limits; experience and position can leverage an unprofitable hand to profit. AcKc vs KdJd is about 70.3 to 29.7; it's about the same for AcJc vs KdJd. So in both cases hot & cold sims suggest defending with KJs vs both hands because of immediate pot odds. I gotta see some hardcore sim data and analysis before I believe this is a profitable play though. Of course everything is relative; I've encountered few HE players who play optimally heads up limit but for those who do then maybe playing KJs here can be profitable versus a loose-passive opponent. Hey, if anyone has a link to a good article or post on defending BB in Tight-Aggressive games, I'd like to see it. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Formless, 23. Aug 2003 08:08 | ||
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| Some more thoughts: I moved up to 20-40 about a year and a half ago. I really enjoyed the aspects of playing "big poker". What I noticed was that many of the pots were the BB and The Guy Who Raised. The Guy Who Raised will bet out 107% of the time on the flop if BB checks to him, because if he can get BB to fold even 20% of the time here he shows an immediate profit. But with any two nonpair cards I hit a hand on the flop something like 34% of the time. There are 5.5SB in the pot now. I have 75s in BB and the board is 35J. What I'm saying is there is some serious built in leverage when you call in the BB versus a steal raiser, I try to do the math and make an opportunity out of it. Lately I've been experimenting if it's not better to just bet these hands out though and try to take down the pot. The Guy Who Raised seems to call the checkraise maybe 85% of the time here, and by this time the pot is so big it's less incorrect or even correct for him to stick around till the river with his AQ or 88. I think the checkraise is more profitable though. -I think my biggest consideration in defending BB is position of the raiser, or more accurately the raising range, which correlates strongly to position in the absence of other info. Rake vs. time has got to be a huge consideration too. I'd put the quality of my opponent lower on my list, partly because it's somewhat built into the raising range equation. I would be more inclined to defend against Barry T. than Mason M. because Barry will raise me here with a wider range of hands. Then again, I think I lose an extra bet somewhere in that hand if I'm playing against Barry T., so there goes that argument, lol. I guess I'll have to take player expertise into greater consideration too now. It's a really tricky thing to quantify, and I think it's hard to program expert shorthanded play to get a realistic simulation. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Schuster, 23. Aug 2003 08:55 | ||
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| I think this discussion reinforces a key issue, and that is if a situation is very marginally profitable, you will not give up very much by choosing to avoid it. I would defend my blind every time with KJ against a poor player. But, against a top player like Mason, one mistake in the play of the hand is enough to turn that long term marginal call into a long term loser. It is a bit of a fear factor, yes, but poker is about your bankroll, not ego. If you know another player can outplay you, why get involved? Lee | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Barry T, 24. Aug 2003 05:57 | ||
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| on 23. Aug 2003 08:08 Formless wrote: > I would be more inclined to defend against Barry T. than Mason M. because Barry will > raise me here with a wider range of hands. Then again, I think I lose an extra bet > somewhere in that hand if I'm playing against Barry T., so there goes that argument, lol. You know, I work very hard so people will think that. I make a lot of marginal plays (almost always with what I hope is a small +ev edge) so people wil give me action when they would not against someone who seems to be tighter. My standard deviation in $30-$60 is $640/hr. This is huge compared to some excellent but tight pros who have a SD closer to $400/hr. I believe I make a lot more $/hr though because a) I get the action against my very good hands, which I have most of the time, and b) I can play well post-flop and can exploit my edge if I have one (or lose more I don't :-) ). Welcome to UPF, Formless. Thanks very much for the "wedge issue". But you may have to wait for my book to learn all about blind defense in tight games. And no I have not started writing it yet. BarryT | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Roy Cooke, 23. Aug 2003 09:47 | ||
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| Hi All Reference post: "First post...hand I played with Mason". It is several pages back just click on the page numbers to take you there! I agree with Barry on this one. First, I do not agree with the way Mason played the hand! I think he left one, maybe two bets on the table. That said, there may be extraneous circumstances I may not be aware of that would justify the play. Second, I do not think Mike put enough emphasis (if any) on how the hand plays against the range of hands an opponent(s) may hold. How the hand plays is a HUGE factor in determining the value of a given situation. I apologize I did not put the quote in this thread...My computer froze the first time I tried to write this post and it now gives me an error message when I try to reply with post. Please reference Barry's and Formless's posts! This post is a great learning example! Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Nathaniel Brous, 23. Aug 2003 09:48 | ||
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| Hey Barry. I see and agree with your point, however...there is nothing to say that the "expert" is not getting out of line him/herself. They are human also and take advantage of their status on occasion. Granted these situations are dissimilar but I did find the story below quite telling. Because the "expert" folds so often (even postflop) we rarely know his holdings. - Nathaniel Brous P.S. I "borrowed" Mason Malmuth's unedited post from two plus two without permission. If there is a problem with that, I am sure that I will hear about it. But I hope the free advertising will outweigh my transgression. Oski: You need to read my books. In Gambling Theory and Other Topics and my Poker Essays there are a bunch of stories that most will find very humorous. Here's a strory from Poker Essays, Volume II. Story No. 4: How good are our books? One day, several years ago, I was in a $20-$40 hold?em game at The Mirage. I had been playing for a while and was about even for the day when I was dealt the 5h 2h right under the gun. Normally, I will quickly throw this hand away, but this day was different. It?s hard to say exactly what came over me, but I raised it up and was called by several players. Two hearts and an ace flopped, and there was a great deal of action on both the flop and on fourth street. On the river, a third heart hit, and I won a big pot with a five-high flush. About a week later, a stranger came up to me in the poker room. ?Are you Mason?? he asked. ?Yes I am,? I answered. ?I was reading your book,? he went on, ?but when I saw you play that five-deuce the other day, I went home and threw your book away.? By the way, the most entertaining piece I ever wrote is probably "Young Jack Black" which appears in my bookGambling Theory and Other Topics. It is printed with appologies to Nathaniel Hawthorne. Best wishes, Mason | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Roy Cooke, 23. Aug 2003 09:52 | ||
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| Hi Nathan If you are going to assume Mason (Or any other good player) is on a deception play when playing him .....You are going to be a lot of good value to that player when playing in his game! Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke on 23. Aug 2003 09:48 Nathaniel Brous wrote: > Hey Barry. I see and agree with your point, however...there is nothing to say that > the "expert" is not getting out of line him/herself. They are human also and take > advantage of their status on occasion. Granted these situations are dissimilar but I > did find the story below quite telling. Because the "expert" folds so often (even > postflop) we rarely know his holdings. - Nathaniel Brous > > P.S. I "borrowed" Mason Malmuth's unedited post from two plus two without > permission. If there is a problem with that, I am sure that I will hear about it. > But I hope the free advertising will outweigh my transgression. > > Oski: > > You need to read my books. In Gambling Theory and Other Topics and my Poker Essays > there are a bunch of stories that most will find very humorous. Here's a strory from > Poker Essays, Volume II. > > Story No. 4: How good are our books? One day, several years ago, I was in a $20-$40 > hold?em game at The Mirage. I had been playing for a while and was about even for the > day when I was dealt the > > 5h 2h > > > right under the gun. Normally, I will quickly throw this hand away, but this day was > different. It?s hard to say exactly what came over me, but I raised it up and was > called by several players. Two hearts and an ace flopped, and there was a great deal > of action on both the flop and on fourth street. On the river, a third heart hit, and > I won a big pot with a five-high flush. > > About a week later, a stranger came up to me in the poker room. ?Are you Mason?? he > asked. ?Yes I am,? I answered. ?I was reading your book,? he went on, ?but when I saw > you play that five-deuce the other day, I went home and threw your book away.? > > By the way, the most entertaining piece I ever wrote is probably "Young Jack Black" > which appears in my bookGambling Theory and Other Topics. It is printed with > appologies to Nathaniel Hawthorne. > > Best wishes, > Mason > | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Nathaniel Brous, 23. Aug 2003 10:11 | ||
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| on 23. Aug 2003 09:52 Roy Cooke wrote: > Hi Nathan > If you are going to assume Mason (Or any other good player) is on a deception play when playing him .....You are going to be a lot of good value to that player when playing in his game! Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke Hey Roy. I completely agree. Assumptions kill. Because "good" players are so rarely out of line(estm.0.5%), it makes them that much more successful when they are. Of course, "out of line" and "deception" are not always the same thing. I think it would be foolish to not include deception into the thought process against any strong opponent. So I must assume that you consider Mason so tight that he squeaks. But...I have plenty of time to figure these problems out before I am seated with him, or you for that matter. Thanks for the warning though. - Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Roy Cooke, 23. Aug 2003 10:26 | ||
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| Hi Nathan Good thinking and good luck...Against everyone but me of course :-) Roy Cooke on 23. Aug 2003 10:11 Nathaniel Brous wrote: > on 23. Aug 2003 09:52 Roy Cooke wrote: > > Hi Nathan > > If you are going to assume Mason (Or any other good player) is on a deception play when > playing him .....You are going to be a lot of good value to that player when playing in his > game! Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke > > Hey Roy. I completely agree. Assumptions kill. Because "good" players are so rarely out of > line(estm.0.5%), it makes them that much more successful when they are. Of course, "out of > line" and "deception" are not always the same thing. I think it would be foolish to not > include deception into the thought process against any strong opponent. So I must assume that > you consider Mason so tight that he squeaks. But...I have plenty of time to figure these > problems out before I am seated with him, or you for that matter. Thanks for the warning > though. - Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Sredni Vashtar, 23. Aug 2003 22:42 | ||
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| I recall many occasions now where Mr. Caro seems to advocate playing looser in the blinds than many other expert players and both expert and non-expert authors seem to advocate. Is there a tendency in Mr. Caro's theory to underestimate domination? I recall a post where he was suggesting kJ could profitably raise from UTG. Ultimately I recall Sklansky suggested he "try that in the 20-40 day game at the mirage" and see how he faired. But comment is not evidence. Perhaps this is a function of being born and bred in non domination games like draw and seven stud. I really don't know. Or perhaps he is right, and the rest of us are wrong. What I do know is that most out of the box TTH simulations show that a call with the KJ against a player of Mason's caliber and hand range likelihood (which is a bit tighter than most experts- after reading thousands of Malmuth posts I could tell you what those hands are but I don't think that's fair). Using a standard hand range will produce a satisfactory result. However, MODIFIED TTH simulations show the KJ call to be slightly better than the out-of-the box variety do, but still losing. It is difficult to fully simulate this as reproducing expert play in computer profiles is not an easy task. So what we are generally left with is a baseline from which to work. Since MM was in a middle position, he would not be able to as easily capitalize on a perception that the Big blind was playing overly tight, thus widening MM hand range slightly. As one opens closer to the button, the chance of getting picked off lessens allowing further exploitation of a tight blind. Typically, a Big blind could defend against a button raise (headsup) with about K9o, some looser experts suggest even K7o. With a player like MM on the button considering his hand ranges (assuming he hasn't overly adjusted hoping to exploit a particularly tight blind), I think it would be about KTo. Ah, this game had two thirds of the big as the small blind, so for sure its KT then. Hand documentation such as can be derived from historical online play is also useful, but has many flaws, as the parameters are not easily controlled. We can't just take all players in the blind with KJ facing a similar raise, we have to know the entirety of the dynamics of the play to really pin it down. A rather nebulous task. There are, of course, meta game considerations. How will the fold or call affect future hands? What of image? But as far as the immediate EV, it would appear the evidence points to KJ not defending. Thank you for getting this far, Peace, Sredni Vashtar, who is using first person this time around. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Swagman, 24. Aug 2003 05:22 | ||
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| This entire thread has been great stuff. Don't want to depreciate with my name added to it, but I just wanted to say I have really enjoyed it. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Swagman, 29. Aug 2003 17:33 | ||
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| I believe Caro has written an essay exactly contrary to your post. This being, that DOMINATION is a popular buzz word of late, and doesn't hold as much wieght as people would believe. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Swagman, 29. Aug 2003 17:57 | ||
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| Yes a link can be find at Cardplayer online. Exactly his discussion about Domination, and surprisingly enough he makes an exact reference to KJ. But anyways he understates the theory of Domination. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, shorn, 29. Aug 2003 08:11 | ||
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| I agree with you too Barry (seems like I am saying that a lot today). The key for me was where Mason raised from (4 off the button), so it is likely that he doesn't really have a true steal hand. I would most likely fold here against a player of his caliber on my first look at him. However, if this became a habit, then later on I might have to call (or re-raise even) to defend against him running the game over. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Phish, 29. Aug 2003 08:25 | ||
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| One big problem with folding KJ in the big blind against a tough opponent is that that opponent is going to very quickly realize how easily you fold against him and will start robbing you blind. Not only when you're in the blind, but also after the flop when you get heads-up. In my opinion, if you are so intimidated by a player that you'd routinely fold KJ in the big blind, you're much better off finding another game. And I honestly don't know of any successful higher limit player who would fold KJ in that situation. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Roy Cooke, 29. Aug 2003 09:26 | ||
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| Hi Phish I agree with what you said, althought the point to defend your blinds is when he STARTS to try to rob you blind...NOT before! Roy Cooke on 29. Aug 2003 08:25 Phish wrote: > One big problem with folding KJ in the big blind against a tough opponent is that that > opponent is going to very quickly realize how easily you fold against him and will start > robbing you blind. Not only when you're in the blind, but also after the flop when you > get heads-up. > In my opinion, if you are so intimidated by a player that you'd routinely fold KJ in the > big blind, you're much better off finding another game. And I honestly don't know of any > successful higher limit player who would fold KJ in that situation. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Phish, 29. Aug 2003 12:04 | ||
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| Roy, I respectfully disagree that 'the time to defend is when he starts to rob you blind and not before." I think it's important to play in a style that does not encourage other people to make plays against you. Once they start doing that, you are now playing defensive poker, unless you want to reverse it by reraising with mediocre hands (a strategy that is risky and costly). Folding routinely in the big blind with KJ is simply too weak a play. And if you're going to start defending when he starts to rob you, you'll find yourself defending with much weaker hands. And frankly, why would you even play at a table when you are so terrified of this one guy? From the description of the game, (Mason raises 4 off the button and no one else calls), it doesn't sound like a particularly loose game where you can hope to avoid heads-up confrontations with him while milking money from the rest of the field. My opinion is, if you're playing that scared, you ought to find another game. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Swagman, 29. Aug 2003 17:35 | ||
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| LOL this enjoyable post has taken a new road. I really can't justify mucking KJo in BB because of your opposition. Even tho as you describing Mason as someone that is reserved he will still monopolize on your fear of him. Thus being said, I think both Mr. Caro and Barry were correct for maybe different reasons. I think really the question is if you have so much respect for a player that will illicit this much controversy your playing at the wrong table. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Swagman, 29. Aug 2003 19:37 | ||
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| If your willing to give up the 2nd and 4th best card routinely in the BB because of expert opposition. You really effectively saying you giving up the best chances to make money at all. Your really saying you should'nt be playing at all, and you should be running like a coward if your against an expert. But if your gonna stay, eventually your nuts must fall from the sack and you will need to stand up like a man, and KJ on BB is just such an opportunity. . My humble opinion. Thanks. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Formless, 29. Aug 2003 20:39 | ||
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| If defending with KJ here is clearly so dickless, then how you would you play K10? Believe me friend, running like a coward is not one of the leaks in my poker game. Your discussion is all based on emotion and your emotion is clouding your reasoning. If playing dominated offsuit hands out of position against excellent poker players (I think Mason is the one who played this passively but he is still an excellent player) is your definition of manhood and winning poker, then good luck to you. I'll tell you what Mason is raising with here: AA,AKs,AQs,AJs,AKo,KK,KQs,AQo,KQo,QQ,AJo,JJ,TT,99,88 Did you notice that every single hand either dominates me or is a coin flip? He is not raising with K10 or QJ here. Maybe you like being dominated? Some people pay $250 an hour for that shit but I figure it would only cost a player like you about $150 an hour at the Bellagio 30-60 game ;-) | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, Swagman, 29. Aug 2003 23:19 | ||
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| I'm understand what your saying, but you have effectively shutting yourself down if you think like that. The current gist of the thread brought by Phish was that if you not making a move against Mason on the BB when will you do it? What's stopping him from forcing you to fold at your most opportune time (the BB) if he brings in a raise? If your giving someone so much respect that you'll routinely fold a KJo on the BB then you should run like a coward because there's an easier game out there. I'm not disagreeing with anything you say, but I'm afraid in that game is so unappealing that you would have suicidal tendencies to stay in it. Now if as you say Mason will only raise you with QQ and above for example then you'd be correct, but really if he feels your respecting his game this much he will steal at every chance he felt he could get. | ||
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| Re: KJo in BB, I disagree with Caro, shorn, 2. Sep 2003 04:55 | ||
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| Swag- I think we can agree that if you fold your blind with KJ all the time, then that is bad play against opponents who will pick up on this tendency. However, in this case, you have just sat down and this is the first hand that you are playing against Mason in your life. Also, it isn't like he was raising from the button...he was 4 off if I recall, not exactly a "steal" position considering he doesn't know how YOU play either. Like I said in my earlier post, if he does this continually, then you will need to adjust. But, I have lost so much money on hands like KJ in my career that I want more information about how Mason plays before I committ to this type of hand against him heads up with poor position. Steve | ||
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