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Server Time: 12/1/2008 10:19:53 PM PACIFIC |
 Odds question: 2 cards to come., mlh, 22. Aug 2003 11:18 | ||
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| On the flop with a flush draw I often think to myself, "I need 4:1 pot odds to see the turn, or 2:1 if I'm going to stick around for the river (2 cards)." Aside from my numbers being rough (actually 4.22:1, 1.86:1), what's flawed with my thinking here? In what situations should I be considering the odds of one card to come? In what situations should I be considering the odds of two cards to come? Thanks again, MLH | ||
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| Re: Odds question: 2 cards to come., tpir90036, 22. Aug 2003 12:34 | ||
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| other questions to ask yourself that could make the odds longer than they seem: - am i hitting to the nuts? - could i hit and still lose? (straight vs. a flush) - will any of my outs actually help my opponent? (again, an out to your straight making someone a flush) - how much will it cost me to see the river as well? (also called effective odds, figuring the price of staying all the way) - will i get paid off if i hit? (will it be obvious that you hit and your opponent will simply bow out?) | ||
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| Re: Odds question: 2 cards to come., mlh, 22. Aug 2003 13:10 | ||
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| Thanks for the reply. I guess I'm specifically wondering if it's a mistake with 9 outs on the flop to consider the odds 2:1 with 2 cards to come. So, on the flop, when is it correct to say, "It's 4:1 for one card." and when is it correct to say, "It's 2:1 for two cards." ? A related question is: If I'm getting 3:1 pot odds or implied odds and I use the 2:1 (for two cards) odds to justify a call on the flop, what happens when I don't make my flush on the turn? Do I now say to myself, "On the flop, the odds were 2:1 by the river, now on the turn they're 4:1 by the river." Or do I keep thinking in terms of 2:1 because I'd planned to stick around for the river. That smells fishy. I hope my questions make sense. Thanks again. -MLH | ||
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| Re: Odds question: 2 cards to come., EC, 22. Aug 2003 13:38 | ||
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| If you're drawing to a nut flush or one that you firmly believe will win (i.e. a high flush, the board isn't paired, etc) than it will almost always be correct to call the flop, since the pot will pretty much always be laying you 2:1. With a nut flush draw on the flop, you can often even raise for value or a free card, it's a very advantageous position for you to be in. If you don't catch it on the turn you are no longer 2:1, you are now 4.25:1. It will still almost always be a correct call, again considering that you will win if you make your flush. Eli on 22. Aug 2003 13:10 mlh wrote: > Thanks for the reply. > > I guess I'm specifically wondering if it's a mistake with 9 outs on the flop to consider > the odds 2:1 with 2 cards to come. So, on the flop, when is it correct to say, "It's 4:1 > for one card." and when is it correct to say, "It's 2:1 for two cards." ? > > A related question is: If I'm getting 3:1 pot odds or implied odds and I use the 2:1 (for > two cards) odds to justify a call on the flop, what happens when I don't make my flush on > the turn? Do I now say to myself, "On the flop, the odds were 2:1 by the river, now on > the turn they're 4:1 by the river." Or do I keep thinking in terms of 2:1 because I'd > planned to stick around for the river. That smells fishy. > > I hope my questions make sense. Thanks again. > > -MLH | ||
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| Re: Odds question: 2 cards to come., mlh, 22. Aug 2003 14:45 | ||
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| Hmm... so on the flop I'm 2:1 because I'm planning to stay in 'till the river, but on the turn I'm back to 4:1 because there's only 1 card to come. That just seems odd (no pun intended). > If you don't catch it on the turn you are no longer 2:1, you are now 4.25:1. It will still > almost always be a correct call, again considering that you will win if you make your flush. > on 22. Aug 2003 13:38 EC wrote: > If you're drawing to a nut flush or one that you firmly believe will win (i.e. a high flush, > the board isn't paired, etc) than it will almost always be correct to call the flop, since the > pot will pretty much always be laying you 2:1. With a nut flush draw on the flop, you can > often even raise for value or a free card, it's a very advantageous position for you to be > in. > > If you don't catch it on the turn you are no longer 2:1, you are now 4.25:1. It will still > almost always be a correct call, again considering that you will win if you make your flush. > > > Eli > > on 22. Aug 2003 13:10 mlh wrote: > > Thanks for the reply. > > > > I guess I'm specifically wondering if it's a mistake with 9 outs on the flop to consider > > the odds 2:1 with 2 cards to come. So, on the flop, when is it correct to say, "It's 4:1 > > for one card." and when is it correct to say, "It's 2:1 for two cards." ? > > > > A related question is: If I'm getting 3:1 pot odds or implied odds and I use the 2:1 (for > > two cards) odds to justify a call on the flop, what happens when I don't make my flush on > > the turn? Do I now say to myself, "On the flop, the odds were 2:1 by the river, now on > > the turn they're 4:1 by the river." Or do I keep thinking in terms of 2:1 because I'd > > planned to stick around for the river. That smells fishy. > > > > I hope my questions make sense. Thanks again. > > > > -MLH | ||
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| Re: Odds question: 2 cards to come., EC, 23. Aug 2003 23:52 | ||
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| You're 4:1 if you have one chance, you're 2:1 if you have two chances. So that would make you 4:1 to catch the card on each individual street, but 2:1 if you have BOTH streets available to make your hand. This ratio is the result of adding together your odds for each street (38:9 on the turn, 37:9 on the river). So it 's only a question of how you're looking at your odds- one bet/street at a time, or all the way through to the river. Obviously you're correct to consider it both ways. Eli on 22. Aug 2003 14:45 mlh wrote: > Hmm... so on the flop I'm 2:1 because I'm planning to stay in 'till the river, but on the turn I'm > back to 4:1 because there's only 1 card to come. That just seems odd (no pun intended). > > > If you don't catch it on the turn you are no longer 2:1, you are now 4.25:1. It will still > > almost always be a correct call, again considering that you will win if you make your flush. > > > > on 22. Aug 2003 13:38 EC wrote: > > If you're drawing to a nut flush or one that you firmly believe will win (i.e. a high flush, > > the board isn't paired, etc) than it will almost always be correct to call the flop, since the > > pot will pretty much always be laying you 2:1. With a nut flush draw on the flop, you can > > often even raise for value or a free card, it's a very advantageous position for you to be > > in. > > > > If you don't catch it on the turn you are no longer 2:1, you are now 4.25:1. It will still > > almost always be a correct call, again considering that you will win if you make your flush. > > > > > > Eli > > > > on 22. Aug 2003 13:10 mlh wrote: > > > Thanks for the reply. > > > > > > I guess I'm specifically wondering if it's a mistake with 9 outs on the flop to consider > > > the odds 2:1 with 2 cards to come. So, on the flop, when is it correct to say, "It's 4:1 > > > for one card." and when is it correct to say, "It's 2:1 for two cards." ? > > > > > > A related question is: If I'm getting 3:1 pot odds or implied odds and I use the 2:1 (for > > > two cards) odds to justify a call on the flop, what happens when I don't make my flush on > > > the turn? Do I now say to myself, "On the flop, the odds were 2:1 by the river, now on > > > the turn they're 4:1 by the river." Or do I keep thinking in terms of 2:1 because I'd > > > planned to stick around for the river. That smells fishy. > > > > > > I hope my questions make sense. Thanks again. > > > > > > -MLH | ||
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| Re: Odds question: 2 cards to come., mlh, 25. Aug 2003 11:06 | ||
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| Thanks for the reply. I understand how the odds are calculated, but I guess my question is if the situation is not different, (In either case I'm on the flop with the turn and river to come) how can I have two answers to my question, "should I call?" One answer is the odds are 4:1, fold. The other is the odds are 2:1, call. If it's obvious that I'm correct to think of it both ways, it's not obvious how that helps me make the correct decision. I'm rereading Sklansky's "Theory of Poker" and I think I've found an answer in his section on Effective odds. With two cards to come, I should calculate Effective odds. Effective odds are current pot size + future opponents bets compared to my current call + future calls. So, if the pot is giving me 3:1 on the flop and I'm drawing to the nut flush, I'll add the current pot size to the number of bets my opponents will contribute (say 1 opponent giving a bet on the turn for a total of 2.5 big bets). I'm guessing he won't call a bet on the river when I make my flush. I'll add my current call to a call on the turn (1.5 big bets). The ratio is 2.5:1.5 or roughly 1.65:1 which means I don't have Effective odds to call on the flop and I throw away my flush draw. BTW, this is almost exactly the example Sklansky gives in his section on Effective odds. Later Sklansky goes on to describe Implied odds that, as far as I can tell, are used to justify a call for one round of betting based on future profits. It seems like implied odds would not be used in a situation where your calculations assume you are drawing more than one card. In situations where you've figured the hand odds based on drawing more than one card (1.86:1 for a flush by the river), Effective odds are used. -MLH on 23. Aug 2003 23:52 EC wrote: > You're 4:1 if you have one chance, you're 2:1 if you have two chances. So that would make you 4:1 to > catch the card on each individual street, but 2:1 if you have BOTH streets available to make your hand. > This ratio is the result of adding together your odds for each street (38:9 on the turn, 37:9 on the > river). > > So it 's only a question of how you're looking at your odds- one bet/street at a time, or all the way > through to the river. Obviously you're correct to consider it both ways. > > Eli > > > on 22. Aug 2003 14:45 mlh wrote: > > Hmm... so on the flop I'm 2:1 because I'm planning to stay in 'till the river, but on the turn I'm > > back to 4:1 because there's only 1 card to come. That just seems odd (no pun intended). > > > > > If you don't catch it on the turn you are no longer 2:1, you are now 4.25:1. It will still > > > almost always be a correct call, again considering that you will win if you make your flush. > > > > > > > on 22. Aug 2003 13:38 EC wrote: > > > If you're drawing to a nut flush or one that you firmly believe will win (i.e. a high flush, > > > the board isn't paired, etc) than it will almost always be correct to call the flop, since the > > > pot will pretty much always be laying you 2:1. With a nut flush draw on the flop, you can > > > often even raise for value or a free card, it's a very advantageous position for you to be > > > in. > > > > > > If you don't catch it on the turn you are no longer 2:1, you are now 4.25:1. It will still > > > almost always be a correct call, again considering that you will win if you make your flush. > > > > > > > > > Eli > > > > > > on 22. Aug 2003 13:10 mlh wrote: > > > > Thanks for the reply. > > > > > > > > I guess I'm specifically wondering if it's a mistake with 9 outs on the flop to consider > > > > the odds 2:1 with 2 cards to come. So, on the flop, when is it correct to say, "It's 4:1 > > > > for one card." and when is it correct to say, "It's 2:1 for two cards." ? > > > > > > > > A related question is: If I'm getting 3:1 pot odds or implied odds and I use the 2:1 (for > > > > two cards) odds to justify a call on the flop, what happens when I don't make my flush on > > > > the turn? Do I now say to myself, "On the flop, the odds were 2:1 by the river, now on > > > > the turn they're 4:1 by the river." Or do I keep thinking in terms of 2:1 because I'd > > > > planned to stick around for the river. That smells fishy. > > > > > > > > I hope my questions make sense. Thanks again. > > > > > > > > -MLH | ||
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| Re: Odds question: 2 cards to come., DJpoker, 24. Aug 2003 14:30 | ||
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| Hey mlh, Unless it is heads up, then I think it is always worth one bet on the flop. If your four flush has overcards then it is still worth a heads up bet too. In a fairly loose game, you will almost always have 4-5 people seeing the flop and will always have odds to draw. Of course, I am somewhat assuming that you are not just playing something like 4-2 suited too. These hands can occasionally be very profitable, but I think IMHO they are long term losers. Good luck, DJpoker | ||
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