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Server Time: 9/7/2008 7:26:50 PM PACIFIC |
 Average session vs. Good session, SKinner, 21. Aug 2003 06:50 | ||
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| Please bear with me, as I am fumbling for a way to pose this question without being confusing. I have always kept records of my wins/losses, time played and such, so I could calculate my hourly rate. Also to keep trck of my bankroll. However, I have been hit by such a cold deck lately that I began to question whether it was really bad luck or whether I was leaking somewhere. So, I decided to keep a complete hand history of every hand I played, then go back and look for mistakes. I just started doing this. Have 2 sessions under my belt. 1st session: 200 hands, saw 36 flops (21 of which were blinds) Played 4 of them (meaning I put in extra bets past the flop), winning 2 (1 bad beat) So, I saw 18% of the flops and played only 11% of the flops I saw. Won 50% of flops played. Won 1% of all hands. 2nd session: 75 hands, saw 18 flops Played 7 of them, won 5 So, that's seeing 24% of the flops, and playing 39% of the flops I saw. Won 71% of flops played. Won 7% of all hands. Very different numbers for each session. Lost 13 BB in the first session. Won 11 BB in the second session. So here are some questions: What kind of percentages for these categories would you say are average? Basically, my thought process is this: I know that in the first session, luck was just not on my side. I played good hands, from good positions, but I simply missed 82% of the flops. So, I am quite sure that is below average. I think so, anyway. Next session, I only miss 60% of the flops. What I really want to know is how 'lucky' the second session was. Was it more lucky than average, percentage wise. I realize this has been lengthy, and I'm not sure I have been clear. In a nutshell, I'd like to know what average percentages for flops hit or missed (in your opinions) are. –Skinner PS - on my playing style...I try to see flops cheaply, playing good hands from good positions. My definition of 'hitting the flop' is thinking I have the best hand on the flop. If I think I do, I bet until I think I don't anymore. If I don't think I have the best hand, I fold...period. I don't chase overcards. I don't chase the 5-outer with middle pair. I only draw to flushes and up/down straights with correct pot odds. I'm currently playing $1-$2. Thanks | ||
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| Re: Average session vs. Good session, grant pittman, 21. Aug 2003 08:20 | ||
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| Skineer I don't want to take anything away from your post because I think lots of players pay attention to stats that are available while playing online. The point is your may be better served looking at your actual decisions while playing than your results from the decisions you make. This is a more accurate approach than looking at some numbers and trying to manipulate them into something that looks "about right for a winning player". Good luck!!! GRANT PITTMAN | ||
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| Re: Average session vs. Good session, SKinner, 21. Aug 2003 08:35 | ||
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| I hear you. It was over the course of looking for these correct or incorrect decisions that I noticed the numbers and became curious. I didn't mean to infer that I was attempting to manipulate the numbers. Just was wondering what the numbers would be when reflecting a cold deck, a hot deck, and an average deck. | ||
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| Re: Average session vs. Good session, Mark Gregorich, 21. Aug 2003 08:57 | ||
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| Your results in terms of percentage of hands won will swing quite wildly at times, and you can expect fairly long periods in which you seem to hover at one end of the spectrum or the other. Thats the nature of poker, aka the luck factor. However, if you focus on correct decision making, you will like your results, provided you play enough hours to offset the short-term swings of the game. I am assuming that the first example you give is typical of your recent results. The percentages you presented didn't appear out of line for a session or two. I am wondering, however, if perhaps you are giving up a few hands prematurely. You stated that you don't draw to middle pair or go for the five card outs (as middle pair would frequently be). There are many situations in hold-em where you are getting a correct price from the pot to continue with this hand. Sometimes the current pot odds aren't quite there, but additional factors (implied odds) make staying with the hand a profitable situation - for example; you have middle pair and the flop bettor is an aggressive player to your left, so that if you call and improve, you can checkraise the field on the turn. I realize that this didn't exactly answer your question, but I hope it helps. Mark | ||
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| Re: Average session vs. Good session, SKinner, 21. Aug 2003 10:27 | ||
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| > I realize that this didn't exactly answer your question, but I hope it helps. Mark > It did. The example of staying in against a decent field when the bettor is to my immediate left, knowing I could then check-raise if I hit is something I will consider more in the future. | ||
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| Re: Average session vs. Good session, Barry T, 21. Aug 2003 08:51 | ||
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| Hi. Let me add something to what Grant has said. Iti s true that your stats do not matter much (except money won). Two sessions are less than meaningless. But I am troubled a bit by your approach. At first,"I bet when I have the best hand"seemslike sound play.But if hold'em were that simple,we all would be winners. One of the key elementsof play is eliminating opponents,which you do by making sure there are raises on the flop (and if possible the turn). One of the best waysto get raises to happen is to check-raise. Typical poorly play goes like this: Hero has QT in the big blindand gets a free play. Flop comes Q73. Hero betsout and gets 4 callers. Turn is 4.Hero bets out and gets 3 callers.River is an ace.Hero checks and makes acrying call. Opponent shows A5. Hero shows everyone his queen and sadly mucks, bemoaning his terrible luck. But did he play it well? Superfically yes, since he bet when he had the best hand. But would Grant have played it this way? I do not think so. BarryT | ||
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| Re: Average session vs. Good session, Brian Benson, 21. Aug 2003 11:04 | ||
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| how would he have played it? | ||
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| Re: Average session vs. Good session, Barry T, 22. Aug 2003 15:37 | ||
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| Excellently. BarryT | ||
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| Re: Average session vs. Good session, SKinner, 21. Aug 2003 11:38 | ||
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| > Typical poorly play goes like this: Hero has QT in the big blindand gets a free play. > Flop comes Q73. Hero betsout and gets 4 callers. Turn is 4.Hero bets out and gets 3 > callers.River is an ace.Hero checks and makes acrying call. Opponent shows A5. Hero > shows everyone his queen and sadly mucks, bemoaning his terrible luck. But did he play > it well? Superfically yes, since he bet when he had the best hand. But would Grant have > played it this way? I do not think so. > > BarryT I also realize I have oversimplified my exaplanation of my play. However, to give you more insight, here is how I would have played the example you gave: My position is horrible. Ten is decent kicker, at best. I don't think I lead out here. (remember $1-$2 tables) I think I check, and if someone bets, I put them on a hand depending who they are. Strong player, maybe he/she has me outkicked. Lesser player, I am less sure and maybe I hang around for the turn. The decision there being, supposing this person has a Q, what are the chances that 'this person' has me out kicked. I fold or call depending on this info, and also my gut. OR - Everyone checks, button bets. Strong player, maybe I fold. If I suspect a Free Card play, I raise to drive out (hopefully) AK, Ax and Kx. Anyone raises back at me, and I'm out of there. Hopefully I would end up isolated against the button, who I think was trying to steal. I would probably then bet on the turn. OR - everyone checks and we all see the turn for free. I figure nobody for a Q, so I bet. Probably fold to a raise with the str8 on the board. The river would probably go as you described, me not having been able to fold off the Ace-Chasers. So that's what I would do. Feel free to point out places where I am mistaken in my thinking. I am, after all, here to learn. –SKinner | ||
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| Re: Average session vs. Good session, Barry T, 22. Aug 2003 15:38 | ||
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| Hi. You will have to learn something else. YOAur description was fine. BarryT | ||
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| Re: Average session vs. Good session, MozMan, 21. Aug 2003 18:03 | ||
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| Hey SKinner- Good work tracking your hands/sessions. You will find it to be a valuable tool, eventually. There is a problem with what you have here so far, though: it's way too small, and the sessions are very short, which aggravates the situation. Here's what I would suggest: play longer sessions and keep tedious records for months; then you will begin to see some trends. -Moz "mmmm.... open faced club sand wedge." | ||
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