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Server Time: 12/1/2008 10:40:28 PM PACIFIC |
 Skill or Luck?, Robbins, 11. Aug 2003 08:36 | ||
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| I'm a rookie who has watched and studied the game quite a bit but I have yet to play in a B&M. I was thinking about really learning poker but after delving into it for months, it seems as if luck just plays to big of a roll in this game. You can have a 1st place WSOP Champ finish 1st 1 year and do awful the next. I honestly wonder if you put a pro at a standard $3/$6 table, if they would really clean up or not. Maybe they would hit a bad run and be out. I want to learn a game that isn't so dependant on pure luck to win. I hope I am wrong about all of this because I love the game of Poker. I'd love to hear everyone's input. Thanks in advance. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, chasepoker, 11. Aug 2003 08:39 | ||
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| It is luck in so much as if you are good you are gambling with about a 5-10% edge, it is the constant edge that you have ( by playing better than your opponents ) that gets you the money. In the short term you can lose everytime you have that edge, for example you get drawn out on ten times on the trot., however it is that edge that in the long term gets you the money. Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, Flatout_Mainiac, 11. Aug 2003 08:43 | ||
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| This is a little simplified but in the short term luck plays a significant roll. But over the long term, skill is the deciding factor if you are a winner or a loser. I really can't think of another casino game that relies so heavily on player skill to be successful. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 09:00 | ||
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| Blackjack is very dependant on player skill too, but the standard deviation with blackjack is pretty high. What is nice is that you aren't all of a sudden rivered out of a giant pot in blackjack and you can play hands very quickly. In an hour of blackjack I had calculated my average win at about $25 and my standard deviation at about +/- $400. With poker, I'd say that the average standard deviation per hour is much smaller, but over 20 hours of poker vs. 20 hours of blackjack I would find my blackjack to be much more consistent than the poker. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, WilliamS, 11. Aug 2003 09:06 | ||
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| Stdioh, I'm shocked at this. I didn't know you could be that consistent a winner at blackjack. Thats great Will | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 09:16 | ||
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| You need to spend a lot of time and mental energy to be a winner at blackjack. If you're smart enough to make money at blackjack then you're smart enough to make a lot more money at poker. I'd play blackjack for a 5 hour session and then be useless for the rest of the day because imagine sitting there trying to play perfect basic strategy with 4 indices, count the deck down, not look too suspicious which means chatting a little with the dealer and other players, moving chips onto and off the table to hide your winnings, and then have dicks shouting at you because you "messed up the shoe" when you split your 8's against a dealer ace - a move that is mathematically correct, but one that "everybody knows is wrong" ... it is a big giant headache. It would be worth doing if the casinos didn't care, but because you're there to take money directly out of their pockets, they'll kick you to the curb if they find out ... so that makes it not much different from cheating - it isn't illegal and it isn't immoral, but the subterfuge is the same. You're in somebody's house trying to pull a fast one. I don't even play blackjack anymore when I'm waiting for a poker table because although it would be nice to get paid for my time spent waiting I don't want to stop being a valuable guest of the casino with a soft-as-all-hell poker room. All that said, if you like playing blackjack it is essential that you learn how to beat the game, just as it is essential to learn to beat poker. Oh, and since we're on the topic, I'll let you know my favourite thing to do in blackjack. Most casinos don't have a rule against piggybacking. It is a really common thing to see and it seems that only Southeast Asians play this way. Some greasy old guy will come up and want to bet on your hand by throwing a chip on top of your chips, not make decisions, but win if you win. If you really want to do well in blackjack, make friends with a greasy looking philipino and have him throw $400 on top of your $10 when you've signalled him for a hot deck. You can really hollywood here too wrinkling up your nose and rolling your eyes. Then when the deck gets cold you can tell him that you're really not comfortable with him playing on your hand like that and broom him away with all your black chips. The one guy can be working with 3 counters at 3 different tables in the same pit and as long as you don't get greedy with it, you can do quite nicely in a few hours. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, Flatout_Mainiac, 11. Aug 2003 11:31 | ||
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| Up until the time I started playing poker I was exclusivly a Blackjack player (Ok, I'd hit a craps table if I felt like gambling). IMHO, I have been very successful at those table but I would have to respectfully disagree that there is much skill or thought that goes into playing successful Blackjack. It's all about memorizing a very basic system. Once the system is in rote memory the only thing you have to worry about in Blackjack is the amount of drinks you need to order so you don't run out before the waitress comes to your table again. You can spot a bad Blackjack player cause he has to think about his cards. Good poker players are always thinking about their's and their opponents cards and the results that occurred. Give me 15 minutes with a bad player Backjack and if he listens and takes notes he will know how to play to have the best chance in winning. You can't do that with a bad poker player. just my opinion. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, Robbins, 11. Aug 2003 11:37 | ||
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| Can you give me some of those BJ strategies? on 11. Aug 2003 11:31 Flatout_Mainiac wrote: Give me 15 minutes with a > bad player Backjack and if he listens and takes notes he will know how to play to have the best chance in > winning. You can't do that with a bad poker player. > > just my opinion. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck-off topic, Flatout_Mainiac, 11. Aug 2003 12:32 | ||
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| This isn't related to poker, but the basics are assume the dealers down card is a 10. Assume the next card out of the shoe is a 10. If the dealer shows a 4-6 top card asume the dealer will bust and stay with hard 12 or above. If the dealer shows 7-A hit hard 12's through 16's until you draw 17-21. never split 10 value cards. Always split aces, 8, 2, 3. Sometimes split 9's and 7's (depending on the dealer card). I don't split 6's. 5's should be doubled. double down on 10 and 11 hands (if I'm conservative or I have alot of money at stake I stay away from doubling when the dealer shows 10 or A)....sometimes 9's if the dealer card is weak if you can stomach the occasional draw of 2. soft hands like A-4, A-5 A-3, should be doubled against dealer's 5 or 6. Though I can count cards and see the value of a strict counting of cards, I find it to be too much work as it doesn't affect my strict betting pattern and only affects the 2 or three stay or hit decisions that are close calls (ie dealer has a 2 and you have hard 12 or 13) I generally just informally keep tabs of how many face cards pop up. The more face cards in the shoe, the better it is for you. I progessive bet....hence the reason I don't need count cards. 1st bet is 1 unit. If I win, I bet 2 units. If that one hits, I bet 3 units and take one unit off the table. If that wins I bet 3 units again. I will continue on in this pattern until I lose. When I lose I drop back to 1 unit. So my pattern in units is: 1,2,3,3,5,5,9,9,9 I usually cap out at 9, sometimes 5. It is very rare that you will get to 9 anyway. The idea behind this is that you bet strong with house money and you will never chase your losses with your own money. Search for 2 deck or single deck tables. Stay away from automatic card shufflers. The best is a 2 deck table that doesn't hit dealer soft 17's....I think Excalibur has those , but I can't recall if they hit soft 17's or not at their 2 deck tables. I left out some minor things on the play and I'm not saying I'm totally correct as there are different ways to approch betting. But it works for me. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 16:20 | ||
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| First go to www.blackjackinfo.com ... they've got a charts generator for the basic strategy and a simulator that you can play against. Next, buy some blackjack books and read read read. For a beginner I suggest Frank Scoblete's book. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, FatBoyRoy, 11. Aug 2003 15:13 | ||
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| I gotta disagree Flatout The bastic stretegy ur talking about... e.g. playing best odds with no counting system, is set by the casino to be a statistical loser, usually by about .5% What WillS is talking about, things like splitting 8s against an A involves a counting system, clearly not in ur playbook, and is the real way to make money, consistently. A good system can send the odds in your favor by 1% or more, potentially a big payout with a good sized bankroll. Dont be that guy calling the floor manager's attention by screaming at the split 8s. Let the players play.... | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 16:22 | ||
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| Actually, you always split 8's even against a dealer A when you are playing basic strategy. Sometimes you don't depending on the count. By learning a few indices and by varying your bets according to the heat of the deck and by learning to ace track you can get a very decent edge over the house - in the neighbourhood of 5% ... but in general if you just vary your bets according to the count and play only the basic strategy index, you can still hope to make $2 for every $100 that you bet. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 16:28 | ||
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| Oh and as for the players screaming, I got to be an artist at keeping the managers from getting wise. When somebody would say, "You just hit on a 13! The dealer has 4! You flaming idiot!" (and of course I'm looking at a very cold deck and this is the correct play given the count) I'd usually come back with, "I have a system. See the dealer has been getting lots of busts so I figure now he's going to make a hand really soon." Then I'd just completely tune out whatever they said as they tried to justify that it didn't work that way and anybody looking would imediately dismiss me as a kid who didn't know blackjack and "has his own system" ... the worst thing you can do is say, "I just felt like it - I know it is wrong, but this time ... you know" that gets their ears perked up. You say, "No. I've got a reason, you see. I'm watching the pattern of when the dealer wins and when he busts and he's been busting too much," then they pigeonhole you as a sucker, comp you a meal, and stay out of your hair. Of course I've gotten flagrant about my counting before when out of province in a casino I didn't plan on returning to and felt like paying my plane fare if I could manage it. Why? Well, any casino that has tables ranging from $5-$500 has it coming. 2 of us hit that place for 3 hours waiting for a really really really hot shoe, made some giant bets, filled our pockets, grabbed our cheques off the table and hotfooted it out of there when it looked like the pit bosses and security crew was having a picnic in the next pit over. I think I was lucky not to get tossed into the drink that day. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, FatBoyRoy, 11. Aug 2003 15:18 | ||
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| Flatout wrong man The bastic stretegy ur talking about... e.g. playing best odds with no counting system, is set by the casino to be a statistical loser, usually by about -.5% What stdioh is talking about, things like splitting 8s against an A, involves a counting system, clearly not in ur playbook, and is the real way to make money consistently. A good system can send the odds in your favor by 1% or more, potentially a big payout with a good sized bankroll. Call your waitress, throw off your count by 1 or 2 in a low stack and you'll be doubling down on a statistical loser. Theres alot of brainpower involved in keeping a profitably accurate count. Dont be that guy calling the floor manager's attention by screaming at the split 8s dude. Let the players play.... | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, Flatout_Mainiac, 11. Aug 2003 18:39 | ||
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| UHH...I said always split 8's...that mean with aces FatBoy...just do call the pit boss on me. I said it that what I wrote wasn't complete so therefore wasn't totally how I played as i said I probably missed some things.....I said I do count but obviously I don't keep track as much as stdioh as I bet differently then he does. My advantage comes in my betting style. And Stdioh is right...I play like a robot, usually after a few hours at a table the rounds of dealers don't ask me if i want a card or not...Well it works well for me....do what you wish with it. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 16:19 | ||
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| Oh, I agree that good blackjack is played on cruise control. You are a robot at the table. *BUT* to play really great blackjack requires more work. Ace tracking is a tricky thing to do while counting, playing, and ordering coffee. I would look like Joe the gambler when playing blackjack, but I'd still collapse into a big rubbery heap of tired when I got home. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, Flatout_Mainiac, 11. Aug 2003 18:48 | ||
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| With the style you play, i'd agree with you. I am sure you have great nights at the tables and i'm sure your experience bigger fluctuations in your bankroll than I do. I know that my best night probably doesn't come close to your best night. My style is more of a grind. I'll sit at a table for 15-20 hours at a time to make my night...I know it doesn't take you that long. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, stdioh, 12. Aug 2003 10:32 | ||
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| Yeah, I would have some wild fluctuations. The problem with playing guerilla blackjack is that you have to be able to absorb the losses when things go very very bad. I remember one time at casino Niagara I was playing on a table with a min of $25 ... I don't remember the max, but it is irrlevant. The very first shoe I sat in got amazingly hot, so I pulled the whole, "All right! Now I'm warmed up. Lets go!" routine. Just then the players on either side of me got up and left and I quickly spread out to all three spots before anybody came to fill them. IIRC I was dropping a $200 bet on each spot and the count of the shoe was over 25 with 4 decks remaining. That's a +6 true count and it was amazingly early in a shoe to have a count that good. Of course the dealer gets a 6 and I get 2 doubling down hands (A-5 type stuff) and a hard 17. Double down, double down, stand. Dealer pulls a magical 21. -$1000 :( I had little left in my pockets, but I had to play everything I had as big as I could while the deck was hot like that or I would be giving up giant EV and I certainly couldn't walk away from the table to get cash or I would miss it. I busted all my money so fast they wouldn't even comp my parking. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 08:58 | ||
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| In the short term it is all luck. If you think that a professional can sit down in a soft game and take all the money ever time, you're sadly mistaken. That said, if you're a winning player and you put in 1000 hours, it is very unlikely that you will have lost. Spend a lifetime playing and you'll do very well. So yeah, short term is almost all luck and long term is almost all skill. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, WilliamS, 11. Aug 2003 09:03 | ||
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| Poker is the only game going where the player can make a long term profit. Every other game in the casino spells long term losses to the player with the possible exception of card counting teams. The down side of that is very few poker players are good enough to overcome the competition and the rake. However, everyone at this forum aspires to be in that top ten percent or though. As far as the TV programs you've been viewing, that is probably giving you a false impression of everyday ring games. The TV games are a special situation where you see people who are short stacked having to gamble with hands. Occasionally you see these hands beat dominant hands giving the impression that the game is decided on luck; but long term the better players end up with the chips. Will | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, Robbins, 11. Aug 2003 09:25 | ||
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| These are some great insights, thanks everyone. Stdioh is making me want to play some Blackjack! There is a Casino near me that has single deck... | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 16:30 | ||
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| Go for it. Just spend a lot of time at home practicing. Practice practice practice. Then put some money aside and give it a shot. You don't have much to lose by taking a stab at it and unlike poker you don't have to worry about running into a tough lineup that'll take your bankroll. Just fear the decks that get really hot and give all the blackjacks to the dealer. Things only go really badly in blackjack when they get too good to be true. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, ezcheese, 11. Aug 2003 09:39 | ||
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| Whenever anyone asks me about this I always say this: Texas Hold 'em is 70% skill and 30% luck... What everyone has said here is correct, if you end up getting unlucky, even if you are a great player, you can lose A LOT... but if you are a skilled player, just getting bad cards, you will still end up with a small profit, or small loss... because of this, then you will end up a winner in the long run. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, Roy Cooke, 11. Aug 2003 09:57 | ||
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| Hi Robbins Poker is a game in which your decisions matter...Players who make better decisions than their opponents will have a statistical edge over those players.....If you make better decisions than your opponents you will win their money in the long run just as surely as the roulette wheel wins in the long run for the casinos.....That said, in the short run there is a lot of luck involved in poker (or roulette for that matter). Just focus on making good decisions, let the cards fall where they may and don't let bad cards affect you mentally or emotionally. Roy Cooke on 11. Aug 2003 08:36 Robbins wrote: > I'm a rookie who has watched and studied the game quite a bit but I have yet to > play in a B&M. I was thinking about really learning poker but after delving into > it for months, it seems as if luck just plays to big of a roll in this game. > > You can have a 1st place WSOP Champ finish 1st 1 year and do awful the next. I > honestly wonder if you put a pro at a standard $3/$6 table, if they would really > clean up or not. Maybe they would hit a bad run and be out. > > I want to learn a game that isn't so dependant on pure luck to win. I hope I am > wrong about all of this because I love the game of Poker. > > I'd love to hear everyone's input. Thanks in advance. > | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, Bill Maltas, 11. Aug 2003 11:09 | ||
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| I have thought long and hard about this one... While I feel there is a combination at work here of luck and skill, knowing what to do in what situation takes a lot of play and nerve as well as a good bankroll. This is what separates the "really good" from the "not-so-hot". A California judge ruled in the late 1800s that poker was a game of skill - hence the California card clubs. But from those not in the know, poker just looks like a game of drawing and hoping to hit the golden hand. But there are better hands than others to start with and mathematical percentages that govern the game. So learn all you can, play all you can, but dont get into a game, online or otherwise above a limit you feel comfortable at (dont get greedy). Good luck/skill! | ||
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| Depends on the table, FatBoyRoy, 11. Aug 2003 15:24 | ||
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| I think the biggest determining factor in this depends on the table. Sit at a super loose table with a bunch of maniacs, and over 8 hours your best pro will simply have to roll with the cards. Its essensialy the same as sitting with random players, and the best you can do is play you odds on favorite hands. Sit at a tight agressive table with a bunch sharks, and you better have some idea of what ur doing. The play here is more methodical. Keep playing middle range losers and you'll be sucked dry in 2 hrs. There is little luck involved when u sit 8 hrs at a tight weak table with few loose raisers feeding the pot. Play the pot odds and you'll very consistently come out on top. | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, 4 POKER, 11. Aug 2003 17:31 | ||
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| Short term positive results can very well be due to getting "lucky" in the essence of, winning hands, sessions, tournaments, etc. without really having the full knowledge, skill and ability to be *consistent* enough to really show a profit over the long haul. Long term positive results are based on knowledge, skill, experience, awareness, good decision making, discipline, good money management............ pure poker ability in every aspect. 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, DJpoker, 12. Aug 2003 01:43 | ||
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| I am still a relative newbie, but have made some nice increases in my bankroll in a short time. I find that most of the people I am playing against are oblivious to what constitutes a good starting hand. Sure I see that K-5 offsuit catch once every blue moon, but I'll play with those people til the cows come home and I'll milk the cows if that means these types of players stay at the table. Anyway, of course there is some luck involved as we can't predict flops, but I think the true skill shines through with Kenny's song "You gotta know when to hold em.....and "especially" know when to fold em." Good luck, DJpoker | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, 4 POKER, 12. Aug 2003 04:09 | ||
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| on 12. Aug 2003 01:43 DJpoker wrote: > I am still a relative newbie, but have made some nice increases in my bankroll in a short > time. I find that most of the people I am playing against are oblivious to what > constitutes a good starting hand. Sure I see that K-5 offsuit catch once every blue moon, > but I'll play with those people til the cows come home and I'll milk the cows if that > means these types of players stay at the table. > > Anyway, of course there is some luck involved as we can't predict flops, but I think the > true skill shines through with Kenny's song "You gotta know when to hold em.....and > "especially" know when to fold em." > Good luck, DJpoker Well than you have chosen to make good choices by playing against opponents who are not as strong as you. Even if you are a newbie....when you play in games where you have better reads, make better decisions, etc. etc., then you will stand a much better chance in beating the game. And if you improve your own game, and keep applying what you have learned, which is also due to experience ........then the long term results will also be good......as long as you chose to still make the best choices at all times and play against players that are weaker than yourself. So even though you may just be starting out DJ, remember......we all started from the beginning too. 4P- | ||
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| Re: Skill or Luck?, Soleo, 12. Aug 2003 07:32 | ||
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| For me it is 75% of luck and 25% of skill. This is approximization and very subjective but this is my current point. I found this numbers from everyday analysis of played hands. I record were losses caused by my mistakes or by unavoidable bad luck. | ||
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