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Server Time: 8/29/2008 9:52:00 PM PACIFIC |
 Did I goof?, WilliamS, 10. Aug 2003 18:12 | ||
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| Tonights UB 200 tourney There are about 48 players left top 20 payout. I've got around T6000. Everyone limps preflop 3 handed for all pratical purposes I have 10hJh Flop 9h8h6o I check, next player makes pot sized bet, next player with about 5000 in chips goes all-in. Decision to me? I figure correctly that button has AA, other player (very tight very aggressive) to have at least top pair probably trips (ended up trip 9s) That leaves me 8 clean outs on the open ended straight draw as well as being 4 to a flush. I fold, figuring survival is the key. The player behind me goes all-in with trip 9s and takes down a huge pot. By the way, the next card was an offsuit Q and the river card was a flush card that didn't pair the board. I would have nearly tripled my stack and been near the top with less than 25% of the players left in the tourney. As it worked out I went out of the tournament very shortly when my 77 got outrun by 66 and then my 77 ran into KK when I got short stacked. I feel I made the right decision as far as long term positive EV, but short term I would've had a legitimate chance of winning the tourney if I had made that call. Thanks, Will | ||
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| Re: Did I goof?, Mark, 10. Aug 2003 18:28 | ||
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| I would probably have led out on the flop with a pot size bet. If it came back to me i would call/raise all-in. You have a minimum of 13 good outs, on the turn. With a redraw on the river, you may only have 10 good outs. But you still have 10 (min) to 14 good outs along with 2 overcards. This is a great chance to triple your stack becasue you will hit a str8 or flush 2 out of every 3 times you play that hand to the river. Its not a sure thing, but few things ever are in hold'em. I would take the gamble, in the long run you'll have the best of it. Mark | ||
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| Re: Did I goof?, Guru, 10. Aug 2003 20:01 | ||
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| I think bowing out was the right decision. I don't think going all-in without believing you lead the hand is the right move. Yeah, you had a a lot of outs, but there are a lot more blanks in that deck for you than outs, so odds aren't in your favor here and you know that you can't win the hand without hitting those outs. It's so easy to second guess youself given the outcome, but how relieved would you have been if you would have missed it? My opinion. | ||
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| Re: Did I goof?, Schuster, 10. Aug 2003 21:27 | ||
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| You didn't mention what the blinds were. At this point, if you're going to limp with J-10s this is the flop you're looking for. If the blinds are low, you have enough to play around with and can afford to surrender the pot if someone moves all in. If you are risking a third of your stack to make a pot sized bet, then I wouldn't limp with J-10s to begin with. When you hit it, you need to make a bet at the pot. You don't have a made hand yet, but you have a very strong draw and you need to try to take the money. Now, given the hands that were behind you, this wouldn't have given you the pot, but you can't play by results. Now with your open end straight and flush draw, you're about even money to make a straight or a flush by the river. If someone has a set, you're about a 3 to 2 dog. Basically, when someone goes all in, you're being confronted with a coinflip for all your chips, maybe a little better if both you're overcards are live. I think you know that this isn't the place you want to call all in. A queen came, and you wish you would have made the call, but the other half of the times that you lose, you'll be glad you played smart poker. Lee | ||
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| Re: Did I goof?, WilliamS, 11. Aug 2003 04:40 | ||
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| Lee, I'm trying to go back and get the hand history for the exact information. Our table broke right after that hand so I don't have the history. However, if memory serves me correctly the blinds were probably about 75-150. I wanted to see the flop cheaply and hit a "made" monster; instead I hit a "monster in waiting". ;) Anyway, better results next time. I appreciate your response Will | ||
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| Re: Did I goof?, Roy Cooke, 11. Aug 2003 06:45 | ||
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| When I have a big draw like that...I will bet, often a large amount....That way I have two ways to win....I can win if they fold...or I can win if I make a hand. If I would have checked I would have called all-in. You have a chance to triple through and are around even money to make a straight or flush. You have to be aggressive to win tournaments...... Roy Cooke on 10. Aug 2003 18:12 WilliamS wrote: > Tonights UB 200 tourney > There are about 48 players left top 20 payout. > I've got around T6000. > Everyone limps preflop 3 handed for all pratical purposes > I have 10hJh > Flop > 9h8h6o > I check, next player makes pot sized bet, next player with about 5000 > in chips goes all-in. Decision to me? > I figure correctly that button has AA, other player (very tight very > aggressive) to have at least top pair probably trips (ended up trip 9s) > That leaves me 8 clean outs on the open ended straight draw as well as being 4 > to a flush. I fold, figuring survival is the key. > The player behind me goes all-in with trip 9s and takes down a huge pot. By > the way, the next card was an offsuit Q and the river card was a flush card that > didn't pair the board. I would have nearly tripled my stack and been near the > top with less than 25% of the players left in the tourney. > As it worked out I went out of the tournament very shortly when my 77 got > outrun by 66 and then my 77 ran into KK when I got short stacked. > I feel I made the right decision as far as long term positive EV, but short > term I would've had a legitimate chance of winning the tourney if I had made > that call. > Thanks, > Will | ||
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| Re: Did I goof?, chasepoker, 11. Aug 2003 07:33 | ||
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| I would probably have gone all in at some stage on the flop you probably have the best of it and it is one of the unique situations where despite drawing you are a favourite over the Aces The thing is when do you go all in ? I Guess " it depends " on whether the guy with aces has the potential to a) fold his aces to an all in bet and b) to call just a small bet made by you (not likely). If you checking results in him going all in you may as well go all in yourself to pre-empt that. The guy in the middle also has to be considered as well as if you cannot steal the pot ( ie going all in will not result in a fold ) then you want to get him in the pot ( as you need to hit your hand to win,it makes sense ifyou do you it in a much larger pot ) so checking may be the best policy. So if they are both going to bet all in anyway if you check ( and maybe only one call if you bet ) then you may as well check and get them both all in. However if there is any possibiliy of them BOTH folding then go all in yourself, what i beleive to be the worst case scenario for you though is to be all in but only against ONE opponent ( though as i said you are probaly favourite so it aint ' that ' bad. I have a feeling though after the post on AA on the bubble that one or two people may disagree with me on this one ! Chasepoker PS i have just read this and i dont know if it makes sense ? | ||
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| Re: Did I goof?, WilliamS, 11. Aug 2003 07:56 | ||
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| Yeah, it makes sense. I believe an argument can be made here for either direction. I think with both players going all-in I should have called because the pot was giving me almost 2-1 on what I'm guessing was a coin flip. I have heard many times in order to win a tournament you have to get lucky on a big coin flip hand; this hand was probably my chance. If my cards hadn't come up, I probably would be patting myself on the back for such a good laydown. I took all of my allotted time on this decision and chose to play it safe. I think if I had more time to decide the decision may have been different, but my head would've sure been sore from all that rubbing. ;) I really appreciate you guys opinions. Will | ||
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| Re: Did I goof?, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 09:24 | ||
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| I would have gone all in there. This is a great place to make some money and take a shot at winning the thing. With the up/down draw to a straight flush you are more than a 50% favourite to win the hand if you get all your money in on the flop. ... of course that assumes that you're not facing a bigger flush draw or chopping if you make the straight, but you can't worry about these things in hold'em (in omaha you couldn't assume your flush would be good - quite the opposite). Basically if you can get all in against 2 opponents in that spot you should take that shot every time. Against just one opponent you might want to back off depending on stack sizes and blinds because you're basically looking at a coin flip. The nice thing about playing it heads up and not all in is that if you can look at a cheap turn you can make your decision easilly, but against 2+ opponents this is a great place to get all in on the flop. | ||
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| Re: Did I goof?, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 09:24 | ||
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| Oh, not to mention that there's a chance you're good if you hit an overcard too. | ||
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| Re: Did I goof?, Mark Gregorich, 11. Aug 2003 09:36 | ||
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| One way or another, I definitely would have got my money in with this hand. I would favor making a pretty sizable bet on the flop for a couple of reasons. First, I may win the pot right away. Second, if I get played with or moved in, I've already become fairly committed to the pot, and I'm now getting an even better price to call the rest of my chips. Of course, with this hand, you are close to a coin flip versus a set anyways, so it wouldn't be a big mistake to play headsup against the set, even with no money in the pot already. Now, if you factor in that there is already money in the pot, and you are against two other all-in players, you are clearly getting the right price to play. I'd prefer to be the one moving all-in (giving me the extra way of winning the pot, if my opponents fold), but you can't have everything. Getting better than 2:1 on what is close to an even money proposition is just too good to pass up. You need to get chips to have a good shot at finishing in the big money spots in tournaments, and situations like this don't arise often enough to pass up. Sure, you may sneak into the money by refusing to play these situations, hoping to steal enough blinds and pick up AA and KK enough times, but the real money is at the top, and anytime you get such a favorable situation to amass significant chips you should capitalize. Mark | ||
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