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Server Time: 12/1/2008 10:32:01 PM PACIFIC |
 What would you do with counterfeit AA?, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:12 | ||
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| Here's a question for you all. I want to know how you think. It is the first hand of a big tournament - one where there is no penalty for exposing your cards. Player A pushes all in. Player B calls all in. You look down at AA, but before you can call player B shows you the other AA. Do you call? | ||
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| What I would do., stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:18 | ||
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| BTW, what would I do in that situation? I would call, of course. You know that if you lose to player A you are out of the tourney, but you also know that you have a very very very slim chance of losing to player B (equal to your chance of winning from him - you need a 4 flush on board to do that). Now you can look at the other player's chance to improve. Well, he's essentially taking his hand up against AA, but with a slightly smaller deck and with AA having no redraws. What does that mean? It means that there is going to be over a 75% chance that you chop with the other AA and there is going to be less than a 25% chance that you both lose. We'll ignore the 4-flush for now which is essentially working for you since it means that the punter is going to lose nomatter which suit. You have a 75% chance of gaining .5 starting stacks and you have a 25% chance of losing 1 starting stack. Thus your +EV is 1/8 of a starting stack, which is just great. And because of its all or nothing nature, you either waste no time playing the tournament and lose or you take command early on and have a much better shot at making the money. | ||
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| Re: What I would do., chasepoker, 8. Aug 2003 16:55 | ||
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| Presuming there is another tourny round the corner ( ie this isnt going to be the last chance i get to play in a tourny like this ) i call that early chip lead always is good for a tourny and the EV + is enough to call. What about the same situation but you have seen the flop and there is 2 of opponent with A's suit ? Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: What would you do with counterfeit AA?, Big_Slick, 8. Aug 2003 14:26 | ||
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| I wouldn't call. The best hand I can hope to make with any reasonable chance is 2 pair. My opponent can beat me with trips, a straight or a flush. Plus, as you pointed out, I could also lose if 4 suited cards hit the table. That is slim, but knowing my luck, it would happen. I just don't think the risk to reward here is great enough for me to throw in all my chips. | ||
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| Re: What would you do with counterfeit AA?, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:35 | ||
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| The best hand you can expect to reasonably make is 2 pair, but that is irrelevant. We're not talking about stud here. All the players share a board. You need to look at the probability that you win, that you chop, and that you lose, and then decide based on that. "My luck" should *never* enter into a decision. People who do things based on "their luck" rather than math inevitably do more wrong things, thus generating themselves more bad luck. The real question is would you risk your whole stack to only gain a half stack if your +EV in the move was 1/8 of a stack? | ||
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| Re: What would you do with counterfeit AA?, mkpoker, 8. Aug 2003 14:28 | ||
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| You call, and I think it's such an easy question I wonder if I'm missing something. Essentially, you're getting a 1:2 payout vs. player A. You're betting your T10,000 (or whatever) for a potential return of exactly half that. (Player B is essentially irrelevant because there's no way he can beat you, except for a backdoor flush. In almost every circumstance, you'll split the pot with B). What could player A have to act so aggressively on the 1st hand? We know he doesn't have AA, or AK. To push all-in, he absolutely must have a high pair, probably KK (although it doesn't matter if he has KK or 22; he'll need a set or a crazy lucky draw to beat you). Either way, you're a massive favorite (well over a 10:1 edge I think--someone else can figure out the numbers!) With an edge like that, I'd lay 1:2 odds any day! | ||
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| Re: What would you do with counterfeit AA?, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:37 | ||
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| I agree that you go in, but you're nowhere near a 10:1 favourite, especially since you know that player A doesn't have a single A - which would be the best thing. If he has a pair then he has about a 1/5 chance of hitting his set and if he does then you're pretty much guananteed a loss. That said, nomatter what cards he has, he's only got about a 1/5 chance of hitting so really you're smiling. Just that you only win half what you might lose - that's the catch. But yeah, I would call too. | ||
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| Re: What would you do with counterfeit AA?, mkpoker, 8. Aug 2003 14:42 | ||
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| You beat me to the punch. I was just about to edit my post to say 4:1 or 5:1 favorite. Either way, the principle is the same. If you've got an 75-80% chance of winning (which is a better estimate upon further reflection) it's clearly worth taking the reduced payout--even early in a tourney, where caution is the watchword. | ||
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| Re: What would you do with counterfeit AA?, pt_Gatsby, 8. Aug 2003 15:32 | ||
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| This one isn't all that hard to come up with a 'solution', the only variable being the tourny portion and what it means to you personally. As for the rest: you have about a 2.25% of winning (straight flush and flush), as does the other AA. You have roughly a 78.76% of splitting the pot. This creates: 2.25% chance of having +200% (45) 78.76% chance of having +50% (393.8) 18.95% chance of having -100% (-189.5) (won't add due to rounding and simulation error... 0.04% out) So, as an EV play, you should stay in. Over 'infinite' time, you can expect that this move will return 249.3 chips, or ~24.93% return. As for tournament play, that just depends. 24.93% return means something entirely different there. | ||
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| Re: What would you do with counterfeit AA?, MozMan, 8. Aug 2003 15:06 | ||
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| I would call no doubt. The most likely outcome (by a longshot) is that I will chop the pot with the other Aces and chip up by 1/2 the loser's stack. The first rule of poker is playing the odds, and this the right play, odds-wise. -Moz "Yeah, I've made up your mind." | ||
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