|
||
|
||
|
Server Time: 2/13/2012 3:59:47 PM PACIFIC |
 AA on the Bubble, 3Kings, 8. Aug 2003 08:52 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I was discussing a tournament with another player and we talked about thwe following situation. There are 51 players left with the top 50 getting paid. You have two people in front of you going all-in and you have AA with a medium stack of chips and blinds aren't a problem. 1) you have more chips that both of the other two. 2) you have more chips than one of the other players 3) you have less chips than both of the other two. My friend said you call in all situations without hesitation. His thinking: you have the best hand you have to play it. My thinking is that you call in one and two but fold in three. You call in one because even if you do lose to both players, you still have chips. You call in two because all you have to do is beat one of the other players. If you beat the short stack, you are in the money. If you beat the big stack, then you still have money although probably not as much as you would like. You fold because you have to beat both players and although you are a favorite over both of them, you aren't a favorite to win the hand (I know it depends on what they have. For example if they both have KK then you are better than a 99 favorite to win). If the bitter stack knocs out the smaller stack, you are in the money. IF the smaller stack wins, the bigger stack has now lost some chips and may be close to being busted out. What are the professional opinions? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, Keyser Soze, 8. Aug 2003 09:00 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I'm not a professional, but will offer my opinion. I would call in all situations. I agree with your friend, you have the best of it. Also when else would you have such a good chance to cripple both and or bounce one of them??? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, chasepoker, 8. Aug 2003 09:04 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Apart from if i really needed the money by coming in 50th ( which is no way to play a tourny IMO ) or if the fact that i was so short stacked then the best i could hope for was a small payout i would go all in on all 3 examples. I would rather take my shot at finishing on the top table even if it meant not sneaking into 50th by folding. But then as i have shown in the past i guess i am risk averse ! Chasepoker | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, TryNotDO, 8. Aug 2003 09:13 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I would muck all three, given the stacks are close and you have a medium stack with small enough blinds to wait. Why put your whole tournament on a coin flip sitting in a pretty secure position. One of them will most likely take a beat and you get the money and a chance to fight another hand. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, ezcheese, 8. Aug 2003 09:38 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Because you shouldn't play scared... you have to take risks... and IMO this is the smallest risk that you will have to take, since you will have to take some throughout the tourney... Sure you can fold, wait for a better opportunity... finish in 40-50 place and make some money... or you go all-in, put both of these guys basically out of the tourney (or close enough to it) and you go into the final 50 with close to triple the amount of chips you had before... you are now the chip leader and can play tight and fold AA if you need to... but that's if you want to risk it... but without the risk, you're not playing poker. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, TryNotDO, 8. Aug 2003 09:55 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| It's not as small a risk up against two hands with no flop. I think it is a little loose and a bigger gamble than playing some one with a flop to look at. Would you go all in UTG with AA on the first hand in a tournament? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, chasepoker, 8. Aug 2003 10:25 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I think what this situation proves is that if you want to assure yourself more chance of getting a small prize then fold those Aces, however the EV+ play ( unless you have a very unusual payout structure ) is to go all in, sure you will get busted out probably 1 times out of 4 but you will triple up and win a big prize a lot more of the time. Also what you need to remember is that in the situation you had before you are probably going to be looking at hands such as QQ,KK AK ( maybe JJ is someone is not that good a player ) aces are BIG favourites against all of these. In fact this exact situation happend to me last week on UB i had AA one place off the final table, there was a big raise followed by a call and then i went all in i won the hand and went on to win the tourny. It is very hard to win a tourny if you are not willing to go All in pre flop with Aces !!! Chasepoker PS as for the other question about going all in first hand with UTG with Aces about a month ago someone posted this elsewhere - my answer then the same as now ...hell yes !!!! | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, ezcheese, 8. Aug 2003 10:26 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| With AA UTG I would call, hope to get raised, then re-raise depending on the number of players... this is the first hand of the tourney and is a different situation because you don't know how many players will follow your all-in, probably not a lot because it's the first hand and nobody wants to bust out, but then what is the point of stealing the blinds when they are so low? Milk the money with that hand in the beginning. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, Denver, 11. Aug 2003 20:26 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| At the beginning of the tourney I don't know that the Level 1 blinds are worthy of AA's (which is what an all-in will get you most of the time). I would go with a modest raise and hope for a foolish (unbeknownst to him) reraise whom you could then move all-in against. I think going all-in on the first hand would have the entire table putting you on Aces. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, Schuster, 8. Aug 2003 11:42 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| > Would you go all in UTG with AA on the first hand in a tournament? If I knew someone was going to call me, then yes, in a heartbeat. Lee | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, shorn, 8. Aug 2003 09:49 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I think it depends upon what "in the money" means to the player and what is his/her expectation to finish in the top 3 where the big $$ generally is. If I am a relative beginner and this is the situation, then I probably fold all 3 for a chance to make the $$. I think this classifies as one of those situations in Sklansky's book where calling and losing, despite +EV, has such negative effects that it isn't worth it. As a professional with a good chance at making the top 3 with a big stack, I think I go all-in on at least the first two situations and potentially the third one. You aren't going to get any starting hands better AND with that much action, so the opportunity to build a huge stack that (as a professional) you know how to employ is too good to pass up. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, Mark Gregorich, 8. Aug 2003 10:37 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I would play my AA in all 3 spots, without hesitation. The only time I may consider folding AA on the bubble preflop would be with an EXTREMELY small stack, such that tripling up would still not give me significant chips, and if it looked like someone was highly likely to go broke in the next couple of hands (before the blind gets to me, anyways). You don't get many opportunities to triple up as a significant favorite late in a tournament, and these are opportunities to be capitalized on - if you fold here, you're admitting that you're not really trying to win the tournament. If this were a different type of event such as a supersatellite, there are more situations in which folding AA preflop would be correct, but in a regular tournament when you have a decent stack of chips, there just aren't very many (if any). Mark | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, ezcheese, 8. Aug 2003 10:41 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I think you made an excellent statement here Mark: "If you fold here, you are admitting that you are not trying to win the tournament." That statement is FANTASTIC... i don't know about anyone else, but I play to win... I do not do ANYTHING hoping to get less than first place... 3Kings you might be satified at being 2nd best... or apparently even 50th best... but that's just not good enough for me. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, TryNotDO, 8. Aug 2003 10:56 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I am just a novice and a little TOO woried about not making the money. After thinking about it I probably would consider chewing shotgun when they would've won and I mucked them. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, TKarrde, 8. Aug 2003 13:17 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I play 10 player Sit and Gos all the time at UB. And I ALWAYS play for 3rd. Are you playing for the glory or the grind? I'd rather get 3rd place three times than 1st place only once. So far my strategy was worked very well. And I have placed 1st many many times! You gotta survive before you can thrive! TKarrde "The next best thing to playing and winning, is playing and losing." | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:21 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| A sit'n'go is just so different though TK. You play for 3rd because if you get third and have T1000 out of T10,000 you have a very decent chance of taking second or first. When you sneak into 50 by blinding down to near death in a big tourney, your chance of winning is worth less than free coffee you are drinking at the table. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, 3Kings, 9. Aug 2003 08:53 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 8. Aug 2003 14:21 stdioh wrote: When you sneak into 50 by blinding down to As I have said in other posts, I am not trying for 50th, I am in 25th position right now with a medium stack. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 11:40 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Then you're doing just fine and you should be playing poker, not blinding yourself out. If you won't play AA what will you play? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, 3Kings, 8. Aug 2003 13:49 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 8. Aug 2003 10:41 ezcheese wrote: "If you fold here, you are admitting that you are not trying to win the tournament." > > That statement is FANTASTIC... i don't know about anyone else, but I play to win... I do not do > ANYTHING hoping to get less than first place... 3Kings you might be satified at being 2nd best... or > apparently even 50th best... but that's just not good enough for me. Asd Mike Caro has said, in tournaments, you make decisions that will win you the most money. Whenever I do something, I do it to win. I can't win if I finish in 51st place. If I do win the hand, I am still not gauranteed to finish in the money (depending on the scenario). I am certainly not gauranteed to win the tournament. By folding when I don't have the chip advantage, I am guaranteed to see the next hand. If I lose, I am out. 50th place is better than 51st, just as 49th is better than 50th, etc. My goal is to always finish one spot better than I am now. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, ezcheese, 8. Aug 2003 14:04 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I agree that you want to finish as high as possible... and IMO if you triple up here, you have SIGNIFICANTLY increased your chances of placing top 10 even top 3... you may think 49th is better than 50th... which it technically is... but when I look back on a tournament, I dont care if I got 49th or 50th, it'll be basically the same thing... but if i finish in the top 10, that's something to be proud of and remember. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:23 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| That is a horrible attitude. You cannot play optimally by trying to survive each hand. To play optimally you must do whatever move is likely to get you more money in the long run. If you were in the situation hundreds of times you would tripple up much more often than you would bust. If you bust you get nothing, but if you tripple up your shot at winning real money is vastly greater than if you fold, so much so that it more than amortizes to give you an obvious correct move. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, 3Kings, 9. Aug 2003 08:51 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 8. Aug 2003 10:37 Mark Gregorich wrote: if you fold here, you're admitting that you're not really > trying to win the tournament. I'm trying to make the most money. I will probably win and triple up and move up significantly in chip position. With 50 other people, I can't win the torunament right here no matter what I do. But I will be out, if I lose to either player in scenario 3 and win nothing. In scenarios 1 and 2, all I have to do is beat one other player to make money. I like my chances against one player than two. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 11:42 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| If folding your AA was the right decision there then folding any 2 cards would be the right decision there. And if that were the case then the right thing to do would be to agressively bet and make everybody fold all their cards all the time. In which case folding AA would stop being the right move. Folding AA there is letting your pet fox be eaten by chickens. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, JaggedEj, 8. Aug 2003 11:33 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| If you're not a professional with ambitions to make it to the top 3, then perhaps you're better off making this coin flip because of the superior players you'll have to match up against. Sklansky does advice taking risks when you're not the superior player. It seems to me that someone shooting for 50th doesn't see himself as one. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:25 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| First of all Sklansky advises getting all in with good cards preflop if you're not a good player so that you can't hang yourself by making a bad decision later on. Secondly, stop calling it a coin flip. A coin flip is a close to 50/50 situation. This is nothing of the sort. Here you are a gigantic favourite and depending on your opponents' cards you are either a very very big favourite or a dinosaurically big favourite. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, JaggedEj, 8. Aug 2003 14:34 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Sorry, I didn't use that term correctly. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:38 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| That's ok. I'm sorry about being so uncharitable in my responses. I got a bit worked up by all the people saying they would fold. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, JaggedEj, 8. Aug 2003 10:24 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| You can't muck aces preflop to just to make the money at 50. The poker gods would be very angry | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, chasepoker, 8. Aug 2003 10:29 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Thats very funny and very true - they would reward you with a thousand bad beats and you would have to sacrifice a lot of $$$$$'s to win back their favour. on 8. Aug 2003 10:24 JaggedEj wrote: > You can't muck aces preflop to just to make the money at 50. > The poker gods would be very angry Chasepoker | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, Keyser Soze, 8. Aug 2003 11:35 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| How TRUE!! MUST not anger the poker gods.... | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:10 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| AA is never a coin flip. Against any other possible hand you are a 4/5 favourite to win. That's a very unbalanced coin. Folding with a reasonable stack here is absolutely idiotic. In the worst, most pathalogical case, your AA comes up against one player with 4x5x and another player with 9yTy where x and y are the suits of the different sort than the suits of your aces. Even then you are more than a 50% favourite to tripple up. If I saw somebody actually fold aces with a reasonable stack size in such a position I would follow them out into the parking lot and offer to sell them some swampland in Florida. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, MozMan, 8. Aug 2003 10:46 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| First, let me say, I like my Aces against one opponent much more than I do against two opponents. To be a good player, all things must be considered. In these situations, I must stop and think about it in relation to the game. My first question would be: am I playing to make the money, or am I playing to win. Honestly, it could be either way. There are times when all I am interested in is making the money. Most times, I'm playing to win. When you play to win, poker is not for the faint of heart, and you must be willing to make calls like this. Almost all the time, I will go all-in in these situations. -Moz "Yeah, I've made up your mind." | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:26 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Of course you're better off taking 1 opponent with your AA than two. But even if you have 9 opponents in the hand it is mathematically sound to go all in with your AA. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, BADGER02, 8. Aug 2003 11:17 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| AA POCKET,I HAVE FOUND TO BE THE MOST EXCITABLE HAND AND IT WOULD BE EASY TO GO ALL IN ,BUT WITH THE PAY SO CLOSE AT HAND I WOULDNT ADVISE IT.IF 3 PLAYERS GO ALL IN,AND JUST 1 IS REMOVED YOU WILL GET PAID.THAT IS A SHURE BET. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:28 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| You know what else is a "shure" bet? If you fold AA preflop in anything but a satelite at a very particular moment, you will be a long term tournament loser. That is a tremendous hole in anybody's game and without fixing it you are dead money. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, tpir90036, 8. Aug 2003 11:36 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| worst case scenario is that your opponents have KK and QQ. and even then you are a 2:1 favorite. if this were the final table and i would move up to 3rd place....i might actually fold. but i will always take a chance to almost triple-up as a 2:1 favorite....you need to get a lot of chips at some point if you want to make a serious run at the final table. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:29 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Why would the worst case scenario be KK and QQ? In that case the only way you can lose is for 1 of four cards to fall. If they have 4 distinct live undercards it is about as bad, but as soon as their cards gain in straight and flush potential it gets worse. In the worst case they have 4s5s and 9cTc while you hold AdAh. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, Roy Cooke, 8. Aug 2003 11:46 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I move it all-in.....Generally the 50th place doesn't pay too much.....you need to get to the final table to make any significant money......I never enter a tournament with the mentality of cashing (although I understand making the play that gets you into the money is often the right play).......Win baby.....Win.....Move it all-in and roll the dice.....If you triple up you may win the tourney! Roy Cooke on 8. Aug 2003 08:52 3Kings wrote: > I was discussing a tournament with another player and we talked about thwe > following situation. > > There are 51 players left with the top 50 getting paid. You have two people in > front of you going all-in and you have AA with a medium stack of chips and > blinds aren't a problem. > > 1) you have more chips that both of the other two. > 2) you have more chips than one of the other players > 3) you have less chips than both of the other two. > > My friend said you call in all situations without hesitation. > His thinking: you have the best hand you have to play it. > > My thinking is that you call in one and two but fold in three. > You call in one because even if you do lose to both players, you still have > chips. > You call in two because all you have to do is beat one of the other players. > If you beat the short stack, you are in the money. If you beat the big stack, > then you still have money although probably not as much as you would like. > You fold because you have to beat both players and although you are a favorite > over both of them, you aren't a favorite to win the hand (I know it depends on > what they have. For example if they both have KK then you are better than a 99 > favorite to win). > If the bitter stack knocs out the smaller stack, you are in the money. IF the > smaller stack wins, the bigger stack has now lost some chips and may be close to > being busted out. > > What are the professional opinions? > | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:30 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Amen Reverend Cooke. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, 3Kings, 9. Aug 2003 08:34 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 8. Aug 2003 11:46 Roy Cooke wrote: > I move it all-in.....Generally the 50th place doesn't pay too much.....you need to > get to the final table to make any significant money......I never enter a tournament > with the mentality of cashing (although I understand making the play that gets you > into the money is often the right play).......Win baby.....Win.....Move it all-in and > roll the dice.....If you triple up you may win the tourney! But I am not trying for 50th place. I'm trying to keep 25th. Remember, I am a medium stack. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, Schuster, 8. Aug 2003 11:52 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I would call in all 3 situations. Here's my thinking. 1. The tournament pays 50 places. That means that just getting into the money isn't going to be much more than your buy in. If you can afford the buy in, you can afford to lose it. 2. The hands that a player would move all in with and another player would call all in with still put you at worst 2:1 to win the hand. In fact, I think the absolute worst case scenario in terms of EV would put you at 35% to chop with another AA, and 25% to get nothing (I'm figuring AA vs AA vs 5-6s, but the last is not a likely all in hand). If someone else has aces, then the call is incorrect, but the odds are slim, so it's not really worth adding into the equation. 3. If I triple up, I'm looking to get into the big money. Tripling up would most likely put me near the chip lead, and give me a good shot of getting the big money. Look at it this way, if you are a 2:1 favorite with 3 people all in, then 2 out of 3 you'll have a good chance of winning at least 5 times as much as you would have won folding. If you lose, then you've lost, but you've still made the plus EV play in terms of tournament chips and payouts. Lee | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, 3Kings, 8. Aug 2003 13:57 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| For everyone that said you should go all-in ( and that was about everyone), ask every person who finished on the bubble in all the tournaments as this years WSOP and ask them how they feel. I don't think it would be very well. The money may be small compared to the higher payouts but it is still money. As I responded to another post, I can't win the tournament now no matter what I do. But if I have a chip and a chair, I still have a chance. Everyone also assumed that I would finish in 50th place. WIth a medium stack, I'm looking at around 25th or so. Why risk that money for a hand that I'm not even a favorite to win? I would rather finish in 50th place than 51st, i'd rather finish in 49th place than 50th, etc... | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:32 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Could you teach me your novel brand of logic? Let me give it a go. Is brushing your teeth every day a good idea? Just ask all of those people who have slipped on a wet floor with a toothbrush in their mouths and see if they are very happy. Yeah - you want to keep toothbrushes out of your mouth in case you should fall. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| to stdioh and 3KINGS, ezcheese, 9. Aug 2003 21:48 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| HAHAHA stdioh you are cracking me up here... and to 3 kings... Obviously you will fold here no matter what we say... but for that reason, you will always be the one ending up 50th, right in the money... while im going to be the one taking your chips and going on to win the tournament. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: to stdioh and 3KINGS, 3Kings, 11. Aug 2003 06:27 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 9. Aug 2003 21:48 ezcheese wrote: > HAHAHA stdioh you are cracking me up here... and to 3 kings... > > Obviously you will fold here no matter what we say... but for that reason, you will always be > the one ending up 50th, right in the money... while im going to be the one taking your chips > and going on to win the tournament. I'm only going to be 50th place if I go all-in against a bigger stack and I lose. If you were to play, you would be knocked out a little less than 2 out of 5 times (assuming you are up agianst 2 diferent pocket pairs). There are better situations to get all your money in when being knocked out is the alternative. Why is everyone assuming I am settling for 50th place. I have no where said I was. I have said that I wanted to make sure I was in the money. You can't win the tournament with 50 people left no matter how many chips you have. You can win it though if you are still playing. I will still be playing every time with a chance to win while everyone else will be on the rail about 37% of the time without a chance to even make money. Would you go all-in if you had the 3rd highest chip stack and the top two chip stacks were the ones that went all-in? According to everyone's logic, you would put all your chips in with AA without hesitation no matter what. If you don't do it here, than why would you do it in the other situation? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: to stdioh and 3KINGS, shorn, 11. Aug 2003 06:40 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| 3Kings- I will go against the grain here and agree with you. I think any player who goes all-in with any hand (including AA) without taking into consideration what you might lose if you do is overplaying their hand. Now, that is not to say that there aren't legitimate reasons for going all-in here. However, I think it really depends upon a few factors: 1. How much does getting into the money mean to YOU? In the WSOP, if it is the difference between +$5000 and losing your buy-in, that could be significant. 2. What are your chances of winning the tourny or placing top 3 if you triple up? In other words, how skillfull are you compared to the rest of the field? Compare that to your chances of busting out on this hand and only then can you do the EV math to make the decision. People who say "all-in with AA no matter what" are forgetting a few things. First, the best thing you can do in a tournament is watch others go bust without risking chips. This is one of those situations where you need to think about that before deciding. Second, the cardinal rule is to be the aggressor in these spots and not to call off all of your chips (Moneymaker's move). Granted, you have the best possible starting hand to call off your chips, but I still don't think that it is a necessary all-in for sure. Finally, isn't the key to winning a tournament survival? Against 1 all-in bettor, I think it is a no-brainer call even with "the money" on the line. But against two? Sure, you are still a big favorite by why risk the guaranteed $$ if you are a medium stack? It becomes much easier to call all-in with a very short stack or a monster stack here. I think the wisest play for a medium stack is to watch one of the others bust and pocket the $$. You and I may be more conservative than everyone else and as they point out, that may end up costing us a chance at winning the tournament in some cases. But, to let the testosterone get the best of you just because you have AA and basically not analyze the rest of the situation is pretty stupid to me. Steve | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: to stdioh and 3KINGS, chasepoker, 11. Aug 2003 06:47 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| But what you are forgetting is the payout structure of tournaments means that you have to finish in the top to get any real money coming 25th - 50 th is often akin to getting your money back. What situation would you go all in with then in ? As it stands aall i have to do against you is go all in and you will fold everytime... Believe me Shorn i respect your opinions on this forum and am not saying this just to prove i am right but i really think you are not going to maximise your earnings by folding here. Chasepoker | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: to stdioh and 3KINGS, shorn, 11. Aug 2003 07:00 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| The key difference is the exact situation we are speaking about. There is not only an all-in bettor, but an all-in caller too. Plus, you KNOW for a fact that if you fold and one player loses, you get whatever "the money" is for 50th place guaranteed. IMO, since you will still have an average stack after the hand, that might be worth it even with AA. In a different situation where it was earlier in the tournament and no actual $$ was at stake yet, I might make a different decision. Also, with only 1 all-in with you, your chances are much much greater of winning. Your thought that "all you would have to do against me is to go all-in ervery time to win" is misguided. It is this specific situation in which IMO it is at least debatable to call the bet: 1 away from the $$ with another all-in caller already in the hand. I just think that putting the blinders on because you have AA is the wrong way to play. If you had an all-in bet and 4 all-in callers would you still call? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: to stdioh and 3KINGS, chasepoker, 11. Aug 2003 07:41 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Also what no one has mentioned is that in this specific situation you are going to be really only facing one of 3 hands KK,QQ and maybe AK. Your AA is a, at worst against KK and QQ, a 67% favourite and maybe even a 75% favourite against AK and another pair. In tournaments you simply do not get that many opportunities to triple up with those odds. The problem as i see it is that you are willing to sacrifice the very good chance of making the final table to ensure that you pick up between .4-.7% of finishing 25th + ( see earlier post ). I think we are going round in circles maybe we should just agree to disagree !!! Chasepoker | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: to stdioh and 3KINGS, shorn, 11. Aug 2003 07:47 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Chase- Fair enough. Believe me, I think I could go either way as it is hard to know how I would react to that situation without being there. I just think that there is more to be analyzed because of the specific circumstances. I see both sides of the case and I think they both have merit. You have much more experience than me in tourny play so I am probably talking out of turn here. Anyway, it is a healthy debate and that is the best thing about this forum IMO. Steve | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: to stdioh and 3KINGS, 3Kings, 11. Aug 2003 08:18 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 11. Aug 2003 06:40 shorn wrote: > 3Kings- > > I will go against the grain here and agree with you. I think any player who goes all-in with any hand > (including AA) without taking into consideration what you might lose if you do is overplaying their hand. > Now, that is not to say that there aren't legitimate reasons for going all-in here. However, I think it > really depends upon a few factors: > > 1. How much does getting into the money mean to YOU? In the WSOP, if it is the difference between > +$5000 and losing your buy-in, that could be significant. > > 2. What are your chances of winning the tourny or placing top 3 if you triple up? In other words, how > skillfull are you compared to the rest of the field? Compare that to your chances of busting out on this > hand and only then can you do the EV math to make the decision. > > People who say "all-in with AA no matter what" are forgetting a few things. First, the best thing you > can do in a tournament is watch others go bust without risking chips. This is one of those situations > where you need to think about that before deciding. Second, the cardinal rule is to be the aggressor in > these spots and not to call off all of your chips (Moneymaker's move). Granted, you have the best > possible starting hand to call off your chips, but I still don't think that it is a necessary all-in for > sure. Finally, isn't the key to winning a tournament survival? Against 1 all-in bettor, I think it is a > no-brainer call even with "the money" on the line. But against two? Sure, you are still a big favorite > by why risk the guaranteed $$ if you are a medium stack? It becomes much easier to call all-in with a > very short stack or a monster stack here. I think the wisest play for a medium stack is to watch one of > the others bust and pocket the $$. > > You and I may be more conservative than everyone else and as they point out, that may end up costing us > a chance at winning the tournament in some cases. But, to let the testosterone get the best of you just > because you have AA and basically not analyze the rest of the situation is pretty stupid to me. > > Steve Thank you for agreeing with me. My biggest problem calling here is that 37% (or 25% or whatever) you will be out and have no chance. Olaf went from the chip leader to out (16th place) in 2 hands,; therefore, having lots of chips doesn't mean anything other than you are in the lead right now. Let the rest of the tournament go on as it may, I'll sit out on this one. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: to stdioh and 3KINGS, Schuster, 11. Aug 2003 10:52 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Olaf also called his money off with AK, nothing but overcards after the flop. The difference is that he was a 3:1 underdog whereas in this situation, you are a 2:1 or 3:1 favorite. Lee | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: to stdioh and 3KINGS, stdioh, 11. Aug 2003 11:48 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| To be a world class tournament player you have to risk these situations. Why do you think Johnny Chan lost out of the WSOP on the first day? Do you think it is because he's a bad player or because he got blinded out never playing a hand? He took a shot and missed. You have to risk losing everything to have a chance at making anything. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, stdioh, 8. Aug 2003 14:06 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| You always go all in with your AA there if it is even close to being reasonable in terms of how the payouts work and if you have anything of a stack at all. Now if it is a satelite where all "winners" get the exact same prize then you should fold. Likewise if you have T5 left and the blinds are T300-T600 there is no way you'll be in a better position after you double through so again you would be correct to fold there. But in general, you play your AA when you get them. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, 4 POKER, 8. Aug 2003 15:26 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I'm calling for sure there. Even if someone was a small stack or a large stack. You're talkin' about getting paid but how much would 50th place really get ya anyanyway? Survival is key and I do agree with that but at that point especially,..... is a perfect time to accumulate more chips. I wouldn't necessarily look at it as even moving up one or two spots to consider folding the AA because being in 50th,49th,or 48th place wouldn't mean that much as far as the payout was concerned, but being able to increase your own stack on a nut hand would be worth it for sure. You lose, you lose, but I'm taking that chance there. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, 3Kings, 9. Aug 2003 08:41 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I am not trying for 50th place. Remember, I have a medium stack and am now in 25th place. Sure I would like to triple up, and if I had more chips than at least one of them, I would call. But if I am against two larger stacks, I am not going to risk 25th money to possibly triple up. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, chasepoker, 9. Aug 2003 09:10 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Say a tourny has 500 entries payout is ( taken from Poker Stars payout structure http://www.pokerstars.com/tourney_prize_pool.html) 45th = .4% 25th = .7% 10th = 1.1% 7th=3.5% 3rd =10.5% 2nd=15.4% 1st = 25% If you fold you indeed might make the 25th spot and earn your .7% but calling all in will earn you a lot more as the top spots earn up to 35 times more than that ! It is this disparity between payouts which makes it worth trying to get into the top spots. If someone wanted to attempt to anticipate ( stdioh i reckon ) the mathmatical expectation of the 2 alternatice plays of folding or calling then i think it would easily prove calling to be correct. Add to this further the fact that calling and winning in this spot ( which i estimate you will do about 65-70% of the time, more if somone has AK ) will give you a massive stack ( which means you can pick up even more chips if used correctly ) the call is obviously correct. The reason for calling though is mainly due to the payout structure. on 9. Aug 2003 08:41 3Kings wrote: > I am not trying for 50th place. Remember, I have a medium stack and am now in 25th place. > Sure I would like to triple up, and if I had more chips than at least one of them, I > would call. But if I am against two larger stacks, I am not going to risk 25th money to > possibly triple up. Chasepoker | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, 3Kings, 9. Aug 2003 09:26 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 9. Aug 2003 09:10 chasepoker wrote: > Say a tourny has 500 entries payout is ( taken from Poker Stars payout structure > http://www.pokerstars.com/tourney_prize_pool.html) > > 45th = .4% > 25th = .7% > 10th = 1.1% > 7th=3.5% > 3rd =10.5% > 2nd=15.4% > 1st = 25% > > If you fold you indeed might make the 25th spot and earn your .7% but calling all in will earn > you a lot more as the top spots earn up to 35 times more than that ! It is this disparity > between payouts which makes it worth trying to get into the top spots. > > If someone wanted to attempt to anticipate ( stdioh i reckon ) the mathmatical expectation of > the 2 alternatice plays of folding or calling then i think it would easily prove calling to be > correct. > > Add to this further the fact that calling and winning in this spot ( which i estimate you will > do about 65-70% of the time, more if somone has AK ) will give you a massive stack ( which > means you can pick up even more chips if used correctly ) the call is obviously correct. > > The reason for calling though is mainly due to the payout structure. I chekced this years WSOP, ( I know there were more payouts). The difference was $15,000 to $35,000 (25th out of 50 being the same as 31st out of 63). Going by your 70% then that means 30% of the time I would be out. 70% x unknown money vs 100% of .4. Would you rather take AT LEAST .4 all the time or take an unkown amount 70%. Out of 50 players, you would have to finish about 30th to make the play worth it. ALthough, if you do triple up, chances are good you will; but, 30% of the time you won't. Also, remember, I only do this if I am the SHORTEST of the three stacks. > | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, 3Kings, 9. Aug 2003 09:29 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 9. Aug 2003 09:26 3Kings wrote: > on 9. Aug 2003 09:10 chasepoker wrote: > > Say a tourny has 500 entries payout is ( taken from Poker Stars payout structure > > http://www.pokerstars.com/tourney_prize_pool.html) > > > > 45th = .4% > > 25th = .7% > > 10th = 1.1% > > 7th=3.5% > > 3rd =10.5% > > 2nd=15.4% > > 1st = 25% > > > > If you fold you indeed might make the 25th spot and earn your .7% but calling all in will earn > > you a lot more as the top spots earn up to 35 times more than that ! It is this disparity > > between payouts which makes it worth trying to get into the top spots. > > > > If someone wanted to attempt to anticipate ( stdioh i reckon ) the mathmatical expectation of > > the 2 alternatice plays of folding or calling then i think it would easily prove calling to be > > correct. > > > > Add to this further the fact that calling and winning in this spot ( which i estimate you will > > do about 65-70% of the time, more if somone has AK ) will give you a massive stack ( which > > means you can pick up even more chips if used correctly ) the call is obviously correct. > > > > The reason for calling though is mainly due to the payout structure. > > I chekced this years WSOP, ( I know there were more payouts). The difference was $15,000 to > $35,000 (25th out of 50 being the same as 31st out of 63). > > Going by your 70% then that means 30% of the time I would be out. 70% x unknown money vs 100% of > .4. Would you rather take AT LEAST .4 all the time or take an unkown amount 70%. Out of 50 > players, you would have to finish about 30th to make the play worth it. ALthough, if you do triple > up, chances are good you will; but, 30% of the time you won't. Also, remember, I only do this if I > am the SHORTEST of the three stacks. > > That should be, I only fold if I am the SHORTEST of the three stacks. If I have more than at least one of them, I call. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, Schuster, 9. Aug 2003 11:16 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Ok, here's the math. This calculation is taken from Sklansky's tournament book, and it assumes that everyone in the tournament is an equally good player (obviously not true, but it's the best you can do for this sort of thing) With a "medium stack" we'll assume that you are about the average right now. That means that you would be entitled to 1/51 of the prize pool if everyone stopped playing and chopped it up now. For simplicity sake, I'm going to say this tournament cost $1 to enter and the prize pool is $500, which would make your currect tournament EV about $9.80. Folding: If you fold, your expectation is easy. You move into 50th place, still with an average stack, which puts you at 1/50 of the prize pool. EV is +$10. Calling: If you call, we'll assume you're about a 2:1 favorite to win, which I'm sure everyone can agree is decent given the circumstances. 1 in 3 times, you will lose and go home with nothing. EV is -$9.80. 2 in 3 times, you will triple your stack, and you will go to a 3/50 for winning, and will be entitled to 3/50 of the prize pool. EV is +$30.00. Taking a weighted average of the 2, the total EV for calling is +$16.73, more than folding. Pretty sure I worked this all out right. Stdioh, does it look ok? There is more risk involved with calling of course, but the total EV is higher, and this doesn't take into account tournament dynamics in that the big stacks tend to be able to steal a lot more, and thus their EV of the prize pool is larger than their actual share of the chips. Sure, if you fold, you will live to fight another hand, but so what? You *cannot* do well in tournament play if you are afraid to bust out all the time. Outside of extremely strange circumstances, it is the correct play to call here. It is my contention that anyone who would fold in this spot has a serious leak in their tournament game. Lee > Say a tourny has 500 entries payout is ( taken from Poker Stars payout structure > http://www.pokerstars.com/tourney_prize_pool.html) > > 45th = .4% > 25th = .7% > 10th = 1.1% > 7th=3.5% > 3rd =10.5% > 2nd=15.4% > 1st = 25% > > If you fold you indeed might make the 25th spot and earn your .7% but calling all in will earn > you a lot more as the top spots earn up to 35 times more than that ! It is this disparity > between payouts which makes it worth trying to get into the top spots. > > If someone wanted to attempt to anticipate ( stdioh i reckon ) the mathmatical expectation of > the 2 alternatice plays of folding or calling then i think it would easily prove calling to be > correct. > > Add to this further the fact that calling and winning in this spot ( which i estimate you will > do about 65-70% of the time, more if somone has AK ) will give you a massive stack ( which > means you can pick up even more chips if used correctly ) the call is obviously correct. > > The reason for calling though is mainly due to the payout structure. > > > on 9. Aug 2003 08:41 3Kings wrote: > > I am not trying for 50th place. Remember, I have a medium stack and am now in 25th place. > > > Sure I would like to triple up, and if I had more chips than at least one of them, I > > would call. But if I am against two larger stacks, I am not going to risk 25th money to > > possibly triple up. > > Chasepoker | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, 3Kings, 9. Aug 2003 21:45 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| > > Folding: If you fold, your expectation is easy. You move into 50th place, still with an > average stack, which puts you at 1/50 of the prize pool. EV is +$10. I agree with you on this part > > Calling: If you call, we'll assume you're about a 2:1 favorite to win, which I'm sure > everyone can agree is decent given the circumstances. 1 in 3 times, you will lose and go home with > nothing. EV is -$9.80. 2 in 3 times, you will triple your stack, and you will go to a 3/50 for > winning, and will be entitled to 3/50 of the prize pool. I don't agree with you on this part. Just because I triple up doesn't mean I'm entitled to any bigger share. If that is the case, then I have a bigger share of the pot at 25th than just 1/50. Until there is only 25 people left, or 10 people left, or 3 people left, I am not entitled to any more money than 50th place. That takes my EV = +$6.67 which is less than what it would be if I folded. I watched the 2003 WSOP today. Phil H went from about 18th place to out in 27th place in 2 hands. Olaf went from top 5 to out in around 15th in two hands. Last year, John Shippley went from 60% of the chips at the final table to finish in 6th place while Robert V went from last to first. I think in the tourny at Foxwoods, Phil Ivey went from the chip lead to 3rd while Howard L went from 6th to win it. My point is why risk being knocked out when even if you do triple up, you aren't guaranteed any more than if you fold. I can't win if I am out, but I can win whether I have a medium stack of chips or one of the top 10. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| You Seem Happy To Be In 50th, ezcheese, 9. Aug 2003 21:54 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| My point is that if you aren't willing to take a risk (the most minimal risk you can take in poker basically)... then why play?? You keep stressing that you have a medium stack and are now in 25th... NO! that's not how it works... just because you lay it down and get to 50th place as a medium stack doesn't mean you are guarenteed to get top 25 just cuz of your medium stack... you could get eliminated the very next hand... or even funnier... the smaller of the two stacks that just went all-in wins, and they are both left in the tourney, then you get eliminated next hand and get 51st anywayz... I would be laughing my ass off... I would love to have you in every single tournament I ever enter, if you are happy to be 50th and willing to lay down AA. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: You Seem Happy To Be In 50th, LJH, 10. Aug 2003 14:33 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| EZ , LAY OFF 3KINGS. HOW MANY BOOKS HAVE YOU WRITTEN.LJH | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: You Seem Happy To Be In 50th, ezcheese, 11. Aug 2003 13:04 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 10. Aug 2003 14:33 LJH wrote: > EZ , LAY OFF 3KINGS. HOW MANY BOOKS HAVE YOU WRITTEN.LJH How many have you? How about 3Kings?? That really has nothing to do with the fact that almost anyone can see that you are a 2:1 or 3:1 favorite in this situation... IMO if you won't play as a 3:1 favorite then you are MUCH too conservative of a player or just playing scared... ask yourself this... if there were only 50 players left, and you were already in the money, would you play? IN A HEARTBEAT... if this was the first hand of the tourney, would you play?? OF COURSE... the principles of playing this hand in these situations are the same even now... you are the favorite to win, play. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, Schuster, 10. Aug 2003 11:54 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| > > Calling: If you call, we'll assume you're about a 2:1 favorite to win, which I'm sure > > everyone can agree is decent given the circumstances. 1 in 3 times, you will lose and go home with > > nothing. EV is -$9.80. 2 in 3 times, you will triple your stack, and you will go to a 3/50 for > > winning, and will be entitled to 3/50 of the prize pool. > > I don't agree with you on this part. Just because I triple up doesn't mean I'm entitled to any bigger > share. If that is the case, then I have a bigger share of the pot at 25th than just 1/50. Until there > is only 25 people left, or 10 people left, or 3 people left, I am not entitled to any more money than > 50th place. That takes my EV = +$6.67 which is less than what it would be if I folded. Have you read Sklansky's tournament book? In it, he states that each players equity in the prize pool is that players chips divided by the total number of chips in play, multiplied by the total prize pool. You said you were in 25th place with a medium stack, so I figured we could estimate "medium" as being average, in which case you would control 1/50 of the chips in play. Maybe "entitled" is the wrong word to use, but as far as the odds of winning are concerned... I'm not sure what else to say. They are there. Lee | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, LJH, 10. Aug 2003 14:32 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| 3KINGS, YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. WHY GAMBLE AT THIS POINT.LJH | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, LJH, 9. Aug 2003 05:08 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| 3KINGS, YOU ARE RIGHT. WHY GAMBLE AT THIS POINT. LJH | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, 4 POKER, 9. Aug 2003 05:34 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Gamble? At what point were you referring to, LJ? Placing in the money at 50th place is not worth letting go of pocket Aces, and holding the best hand possible is definetly not gambling IMO, but everyone has there own views I suppose......I just disagree, that's all. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: AA on the Bubble, ezcheese, 9. Aug 2003 21:54 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| stop thinking about placing in the money at 50th place, and start thinking about winning the tourney. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| POKER FORUM HOME | POKER FORUM | LINK TO US | ARCHIVE | ONLINE POKER | Copyright 2002, United Poker Forum |
|
Getting Started |
UPF Tournaments |
Poker News, Views, Rules |
Poker Strategy & Psychology |
Money and Bankroll Poker Bonuses & Promotions | World Series of Poker (WSOP) | Play Online Poker | Poker Odds & Statistics | Tournament Poker | Poker Books, Videos & Learning Tools Looking for a Poker Game | Poker Bad Beats | Not Quite Poker | Quizzes and Polls | Forum Suggestions & Bugs |
|
|
|
|
Interesting Links: Online Poker | Free Poker Games | United Poker Network | Find Vancouver Businesses |
|