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Server Time: 2/13/2012 3:08:31 PM PACIFIC |
 Dilema, need help, mrbippy, 6. Aug 2003 18:56 | ||
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| Ivy been trying to get serious about my game with the goal of becoming semi-professional (online in spare time, gambling illegal in SC) by reading books, this site and practicing with play money on PP, UB, poker stars et al. and not doing bad. Having done such I have been seeing a lot of posts by people calculating to great length the various odds of hitting or not hitting hand on the flop, river etc using what seems to me is an incredible knowledge of statistics and probability theory. I understand and have a pretty good grasp on the basic concepts of expected value, pot and card odds but some of the other math I see is very intimidating. My question to the learned ones here is how much do you (the pros) rely on such knowledge during play and should someone such as myself who again has only a basic knowledge of these concepts either A)take up a new hobby or B) take college math courses? Or is there a medium? As I have posted earlier I am not necessarily a newbie, I've played all of my life in home games and a lot of the strategy I've been reading about has been learned through those years of playing home games. But on the same token It has showed me how much I don't know about the game and how I really am in the grand scheme of things, a newbie. Any thoughts are appreciated | ||
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| Re: Dilema, need help, Allyc, 6. Aug 2003 19:25 | ||
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| Try http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/odds.php and http://www.poker1.com/mcu/mculib_odds.asp | ||
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| Re: Dilema, need help, Schuster, 7. Aug 2003 00:34 | ||
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| Have you been reading a lot of Sklansky? He tends to be a bit on the "mathy" side. You can buy a decent statistics book and probably learn nearly everything you need to know in not too long. The math is frightening at first, but once you understand how it works, it's really pretty routine. Lee | ||
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| Re: Dilema, need help, shorn, 7. Aug 2003 05:30 | ||
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| I think that the incredibly detailed math that you have seen (stdioh's posts come to mind) is something that you use away from the table to bring general concepts more into focus that help you with marginal decisions at the table. There is no way that most players out there can do some of those calculations in their head (Sklansky in his tournament book even says that you should get a computer software program to run simulations) during play. So, the away from the table work will help you build a solid statistical foundation for when you are making marginal decisions. I guess the bottom line is that you don't need to be able to actually apply the derivation of some of the math that you have seen to be successful in a game situation. But, qualitatively understanding the concept will guide you to better at the table decisions. Hope this helps. Steve | ||
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| Re: Dilema, need help, stdioh, 7. Aug 2003 09:30 | ||
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| Indeed. I have a math degree, so doing these calculations away from the table is natural for me, but there is no way that I sit at the table and say, "I have 4 outs. I need to work out what the chance of hitting is." It is something that you have to know when you get there. You can get by with saying, "I'm not drawing to my gutshot unless the pot is big" as Rolf Slotboom said in his latest article, but really you should know exactly how big...and what are your implied odds, etc. Basically, poker math is all stuff that you don't need anything more than highschool math for. Be able to do a little bit of rudimentary combinatorics, work out a probabilty of making a hand, and go from there. In hold'em, everything works nicely as "I have so many outs on the turn - I have so many outs on the river" and you can go from there. Basically, memorize the odds you are being laid with 4, 8, 9, 10, and 15 outs at any given moment (gutshot, up/down, flushdraw, chance of tightening a set, flushdraw with live overcards / flushdraw with up/down) for a start and then extrapolate your other data from there. So if you're up/down and there is a flush draw on board then you can think, "Well, there's a chance I'm good if I hit my hand and a flush comes, but not a good chance so I've got 6 really good outs. There is so much in the pot. If I hit on the turn I could still get drawn out by a flushdraw on the river and that negates my implied odds. I barely have odds to draw to 8 outs here, so with only 6 and all the uncertainty and danger, I'm going to let it go." And doing the math in the background isn't even necessary...you could just get some charts or something to look at like that. | ||
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| Re: Dilema, need help, mongi, 7. Aug 2003 11:53 | ||
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| What does up/down mean? | ||
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| Re: Dilema, need help, shorn, 7. Aug 2003 11:54 | ||
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| It means open-end str8 draw (you have the nuts if the up card hits or the down card hits). | ||
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| Re: Dilema, need help, EC, 7. Aug 2003 13:22 | ||
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| My advice is to know the concepts but not be a slave to them. Winning at poker is art backed by a healthy amount of science. So like the other posters have said- learn the concepts so that when you're at a table trying to make a decision you will have a good idea whether you're getting the best or the worst of it, and know why you're making the decision you make. I do think that there are people who overemphasize the idea of playing strictly by the odds and the math- there's so much more to poker than that, something all winning players know. Eli on 7. Aug 2003 11:54 shorn wrote: > It means open-end str8 draw (you have the nuts if the up card hits or the down card hits). | ||
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