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Server Time: 12/1/2008 10:21:47 PM PACIFIC |
 hand analysis, mongi, 6. Aug 2003 14:03 | ||
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| I am in a 4-8 holdem game. The utg is very loose plays everyhand and raises with a wide variety of hands. He tends to overplay his hands and will bet top to bottom pair on the flop as well as draws or nothing at all. The button is a decent player but plays a little to loose. He usually has a hand when he is betting or raising. I am in the cutoff seat with AhJd. The utg limps it gets folded to me I raise to isolate him. The button cold calls and three of us take the flop. The flop comes 9s As Qc. The utg bets I raise and the button reraises. The utg calls and I fold. heres why. 1)I am pretty sure I have the utg beat. If he had a bigger Ace or two pair or higher he would have reraised. The button is the one I am afraid of. If he has a better hand then I am way behind at this point. He could have AQ AK QQ KK AA 99. My jack as an out is not clean because of the spades on board and who knows the utg could have KT. 2) Even if I am ahead I may still get outdrawn. 3) I know the cutoff wouldn't be raising unless he caught a good part of the flop and he likely caught more of it than I did. I put him on AQ or AK. What are your thoughts. I will post the rest of the hand later. Thanks | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, Mark, 6. Aug 2003 15:51 | ||
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| Interesting hand. the fact the the cutoff would 3 bet, makes it very likely you are beaten. Unless he has 3 bet in the past with a draw or on a total bluff ( a very bad play here), you are most likely drawing very thin. If the cutoff has a set, you are drawing to perfect-perfect (AA or AJ) to make quads or a boat. If he only has a better ace, you are still a 7:1 dog to improve (and few players would 3 bet with only a better ace). There are alot of ways to end up losing this hand and alot of money with it, but very few ways to win, and no way to confidently bet or raise to build a big pot. I think folding is the correct play. mark | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, 4 POKER, 6. Aug 2003 16:08 | ||
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| Well the UTG player could have anything there and being that he's extremely liberal with his pre-flop play, you're going to have a tougher time putting him on a hand and may not know exactly where you stand with your own hand unless you flop really strong against him and/or you're in a heads up situation and can play your top pair (ace) with a little more ease. The player on the button is the one who may have you beat already OR because you stated that he *was* a little loose as well......he may have a hand like KQ, KJ, or K-10 suited, and the suit that he does have, matches the two suits on the flop. That's one type of hand I could reasonably put him on here, and because he raised you on the flop, that also could be a sign of his loose tendencies. The other two holdings I would put the button on is pocket nines (leaving him with a set), A-Q, giving him top two pair, or A-K. If he was as decent as you say, I'm not sure if he would 3 bet the flop with just an Ace with an inferior kicker unless he was also an aggresive type as well. Semi-Loose players that are not aggresive usually have something pretty strong when they cold call 2 bets pre-flop and then make it 3 bets on the flop. Being that he *was* a decent player, unless he's really capable of making a "move" here with just a weak Ace (for example), I would have to put him on a hand that may already have me dominated like 9-9, or A-Q. The only hands that you would have beat here is a hand like K-Q, K-J, and K-10, ALL being suited and matching the flop suits like I said. You really have to know your opponents well to make the better decision with this flop, and they also have to know your style as well. If the button player was an astute player, it could be very possible that he was just trying to get you to fold off your hand and take the hand heads up with the loose/unpredictable player with a weaker holding than yours, perhaps a smaller Ace..... But that's also going to depend on what he thinks of *your* game as well, ie, are you really tight, passive, whatever. If he wasn't that aggresive of a player....I would have to give him a hand that had me beat. Keep us posted on the final outcome. 4 POKER | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, Schuster, 7. Aug 2003 00:44 | ||
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| Good analysis 4 Poker. I'd put the button on AQ or 99, both of which you're drawing thin. Folding is the way to go, even if you aren't beat this time. Good to see you were able to make the laydown. Lee | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, shorn, 7. Aug 2003 05:12 | ||
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| My take is that you are either already beaten or the button has such a good draw (say KT or KJ spades), that you are an underdog to get to the river with the best hand. This is why AJ is such a sucker hand that you have to dump if anyone shows strength with that type of flop. Good fold. | ||
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| Re: hand analysis, mongi, 7. Aug 2003 11:05 | ||
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| Thank you guys for the analysis. I agree the fold was correct. The final board looked like this 9s As Qc 8c 2d. It turned out the guy who reraised me had AT suited. I would have won but I still think the laydown given this scenario was correct. Thank you. | ||
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